A model to estimate the probability of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C infection despite negative nucleic acid testing among increased-risk organ donors.
Transpl Infect Dis
; 19(2)2017 Apr.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-28178393
BACKGROUND: In 2013, guidelines were released for reducing the risk of viral bloodborne pathogen transmission through organ transplantation. Eleven criteria were described that result in a donor being designated at increased infectious risk. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk from an increased-risk donor (IRD), despite negative nucleic acid testing (NAT), likely varies based on behavior type and timing. METHODS: We developed a Monte Carlo risk model to quantify probability of HIV among IRDs. The model included NAT performance, viral load dynamics, and per-act risk of acquiring HIV by each behavior. The model also quantifies the probability of HCV among IRDs by non-medical intravenous drug use (IVDU). RESULTS: Highest risk is among donors with history of unprotected, receptive anal male-to-male intercourse with partner of unknown HIV status (MSM), followed by sex with an HIV-infected partner, IVDU, and sex with a commercial sex worker. CONCLUSION: With NAT screening, the estimated risk of undetected HIV remains small even at 1 day following a risk behavior. The estimated risk for HCV transmission through IVDU is likewise small and decreases quicker with time owing to the faster viral growth dynamics of HCV compared with HIV. These findings may allow for improved organ allocation, utilization, and recipient informed consent.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Donantes de Tejidos
/
Infecciones por VIH
/
Hepatitis C
/
Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa
/
Aloinjertos
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Guideline
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Transpl Infect Dis
Asunto de la revista:
TRANSPLANTE
Año:
2017
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos
Pais de publicación:
Dinamarca