BACKGROUND: Hepatotoxicity, gastrointestinal complaints and general malaise are common limiting adverse reactions of azathioprine and mercaptopurine in IBD patients, often related to high steady-state 6-methylmercaptopurine ribonucleotide (6-MMPR) metabolite concentrations. AIM: To determine the predictive value of 6-MMPR concentrations 1 week after treatment initiation (T1) for the development of these adverse reactions, especially hepatotoxicity, during the first 20 weeks of treatment. METHODS: The cohort study consisted of the first 270 IBD patients starting thiopurine treatment as part of the Dutch randomised-controlled trial evaluating pre-treatment thiopurine S-methyltransferase genotype testing (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00521950). Blood samples for metabolite assessment were collected at T1. Hepatotoxicity was defined by alanine aminotransaminase elevations >2 times the upper normal limit or a ratio of alanine aminotransaminase/alkaline phosphatase ≥5. RESULTS: Forty-seven patients (17%) presented hepatotoxicity during the first 20 weeks of thiopurine treatment. A T1 6-MMPR threshold of 3615 pmol/8 × 108 erythrocytes was defined. Analysis of patients on stable thiopurine dose (n = 174) showed that those exceeding the 6-MMPR threshold were at increased risk of hepatotoxicity: OR = 3.8 (95% CI: 1.8-8.0). Age, male gender and BMI were significant determinants. A predictive algorithm was developed based on these determinants and the 6-MMPR threshold to assess hepatotoxicity risk [AUC = 0.83 (95% CI: 0.75-0.91)]. 6-MMPR concentrations above the threshold also correlated with gastrointestinal complaints: OR = 2.4 (95% CI: 1.4-4.3), and general malaise: OR = 2.0 (95% CI: 1.1-3.7). CONCLUSIONS: In more than 80% of patients, thiopurine-induced hepatotoxicity could be explained by elevated T1 6-MMPR concentrations and the independent risk factors age, gender and BMI, allowing personalised thiopurine treatment in IBD to prevent early failure.