Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Developing and validating a risk prediction model for acute care based on frailty syndromes.
Soong, J; Poots, A J; Scott, S; Donald, K; Bell, D.
Afiliación
  • Soong J; NIHR CLAHRC Northwest London, Imperial College London, Chelsea and Westminster Campus, London, UK Royal College of Physicians, London, UK.
  • Poots AJ; NIHR CLAHRC Northwest London, Imperial College London, Chelsea and Westminster Campus, London, UK.
  • Scott S; Oliver Wyman, London, UK.
  • Donald K; Oliver Wyman, London, UK.
  • Bell D; NIHR CLAHRC Northwest London, Imperial College London, Chelsea and Westminster Campus, London, UK.
BMJ Open ; 5(10): e008457, 2015 Oct 21.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26490098
OBJECTIVES: Population ageing may result in increased comorbidity, functional dependence and poor quality of life. Mechanisms and pathophysiology underlying frailty have not been fully elucidated, thus absolute consensus on an operational definition for frailty is lacking. Frailty scores in the acute medical care setting have poor predictive power for clinically relevant outcomes. We explore the utility of frailty syndromes (as recommended by national guidelines) as a risk prediction model for the elderly in the acute care setting. SETTING: English Secondary Care emergency admissions to National Health Service (NHS) acute providers. PARTICIPANTS: There were N=2,099,252 patients over 65 years with emergency admission to NHS acute providers from 01/01/2012 to 31/12/2012 included in the analysis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes investigated include inpatient mortality, 30-day emergency readmission and institutionalisation. We used pseudorandom numbers to split patients into train (60%) and test (40%). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and ordering the patients by deciles of predicted risk was used to assess model performance. Using English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, we built multivariable logistic regression models with independent variables based on frailty syndromes (10th revision International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries and Causes of Death (ICD-10) coding), demographics and previous hospital utilisation. Patients included were those>65 years with emergency admission to acute provider in England (2012). RESULTS: Frailty syndrome models exhibited ROC scores of 0.624-0.659 for inpatient mortality, 0.63-0.654 for institutionalisation and 0.57-0.63 for 30-day emergency readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty syndromes are a valid predictor of outcomes relevant to acute care. The models predictive power is in keeping with other scores in the literature, but is a simple, clinically relevant and potentially more acceptable measurement for use in the acute care setting. Predictive powers of the score are not sufficient for clinical use.
Asunto(s)
Palabras clave

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Readmisión del Paciente / Envejecimiento / Anciano Frágil / Mortalidad Hospitalaria / Cuidados Críticos / Codificación Clínica Tipo de estudio: Etiology_studies / Guideline / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Aspecto: Patient_preference Límite: Aged / Aged80 / Female / Humans / Male País/Región como asunto: Europa Idioma: En Revista: BMJ Open Año: 2015 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Readmisión del Paciente / Envejecimiento / Anciano Frágil / Mortalidad Hospitalaria / Cuidados Críticos / Codificación Clínica Tipo de estudio: Etiology_studies / Guideline / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Aspecto: Patient_preference Límite: Aged / Aged80 / Female / Humans / Male País/Región como asunto: Europa Idioma: En Revista: BMJ Open Año: 2015 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido