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Predicting the extinction of HIV-2 in rural Guinea-Bissau.
Fryer, Helen R; Van Tienen, Carla; Van Der Loeff, Maarten Schim; Aaby, Peter; Da Silva, Zacarias J; Whittle, Hilton; Rowland-Jones, Sarah L; de Silva, Thushan I.
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  • Fryer HR; aDepartment of Zoology, The Institute for Emerging Infections, The Oxford Martin School, Oxford University bNuffield Department of Medicine, Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, United Kingdom cMedical Research Council Laboratories (UK), Fajara, The Gambia dDepartment of Infection and Immunity, The University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, United Kingdom eErasmus Medical Centre, Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Rotterdam fHealth Servi
AIDS ; 29(18): 2479-86, 2015 Nov 28.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26485121
OBJECTIVE: This article predicts the future epidemiology of HIV-2 in Caió, a rural region of Guinea Bissau; and investigates whether HIV-2, which has halved in prevalence between 1990 and 2007 and is now almost absent in young adults in Caió, can persist as an infection of the elderly. DESIGN: A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau. METHODS: An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections. RESULTS: HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly. CONCLUSION: HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caió during the second half of this century.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Infecciones por VIH / VIH-2 / Erradicación de la Enfermedad Tipo de estudio: Incidence_studies / Prevalence_studies / Prognostic_studies Límite: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Aged80 / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Región como asunto: Africa Idioma: En Revista: AIDS Asunto de la revista: SINDROME DA IMUNODEFICIENCIA ADQUIRIDA (AIDS) Año: 2015 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Infecciones por VIH / VIH-2 / Erradicación de la Enfermedad Tipo de estudio: Incidence_studies / Prevalence_studies / Prognostic_studies Límite: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Aged80 / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Región como asunto: Africa Idioma: En Revista: AIDS Asunto de la revista: SINDROME DA IMUNODEFICIENCIA ADQUIRIDA (AIDS) Año: 2015 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido