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Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas.
Guzzetta, Giorgio; Ajelli, Marco; Yang, Zhenhua; Mukasa, Leonard N; Patil, Naveen; Bates, Joseph H; Kirschner, Denise E; Merler, Stefano.
Afiliación
  • Guzzetta G; Fondazione Bruno Kessler, via Sommarive 18, 38123 Povo (TN), Italy; Trento RISE, via Sommarive 18, 38123 Povo (TN), Italy. Electronic address: guzzetta@fbk.eu.
  • Ajelli M; Fondazione Bruno Kessler, via Sommarive 18, 38123 Povo (TN), Italy.
  • Yang Z; School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI40109-2029, USA.
  • Mukasa LN; Arkansas Department of Health, Slot 8, 4815 West Markham Street, Little Rock, AR 72205, USA; University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, 4301 West Markham Street, Little Rock, AR 72205, USA.
  • Patil N; Arkansas Department of Health, Slot 8, 4815 West Markham Street, Little Rock, AR 72205, USA; University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, 4301 West Markham Street, Little Rock, AR 72205, USA.
  • Bates JH; Arkansas Department of Health, Slot 8, 4815 West Markham Street, Little Rock, AR 72205, USA; University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, 4301 West Markham Street, Little Rock, AR 72205, USA.
  • Kirschner DE; University of Michigan Medical School, 1500 East Medical Center Drive, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
  • Merler S; Fondazione Bruno Kessler, via Sommarive 18, 38123 Povo (TN), Italy.
J Theor Biol ; 380: 238-46, 2015 Sep 07.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26051196
Comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis (TB) control is still lacking. In this study, we use a computational model, calibrated against notification data from Arkansas during the period 2001-2011, that reproduces independent data on key features of TB transmission and epidemiology. The model estimates that the Arkansas contact investigations program has avoided 18.6% (12.1-25.9%) of TB cases and 23.7% (16.4-30.6%) of TB deaths that would have occurred during 2001-2014 if passive diagnosis alone were implemented. If contacts of sputum smear-negative cases had not been included in the program, the percentage reduction would have been remarkably lower. In addition, we predict that achieving national targets for performance indicators of contact investigation programs has strong potential to further reduce TB transmission and burden. However, contact investigations are expected to have limited effectiveness on avoiding reactivation cases of latent infections over the next 60 years.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Tuberculosis / Trazado de Contacto Tipo de estudio: Prevalence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: America do norte Idioma: En Revista: J Theor Biol Año: 2015 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Tuberculosis / Trazado de Contacto Tipo de estudio: Prevalence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: America do norte Idioma: En Revista: J Theor Biol Año: 2015 Tipo del documento: Article Pais de publicación: Reino Unido