Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie.
Integr Environ Assess Manag
; 10(4): 522-8, 2014 Oct.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-25044130
Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is used to quantify the uncertainty of nonindigenous fish (bighead carp [Hypophthalmichthys nobilis] and silver carp [H. molitrix]) establishment in Lake Erie. The classical model for structured expert judgment model is applied. Forming a weighted combination (called a decision maker) of experts' distributions, with weights derived from performance on a set of calibration variables from the experts' field, exhibits greater statistical accuracy and greater informativeness than simple averaging with equal weights. New methods of cross validation are applied and suggest that performance characteristics relative to equal weighting could be predicted with a small number (1-2) of calibration variables. The performance-based decision maker is somewhat degraded on out-of-sample prediction, but remained superior to the equal weight decision maker in terms of statistical accuracy and informativeness.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Carpas
/
Lagos
/
Medición de Riesgo
/
Especies Introducidas
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Integr Environ Assess Manag
Año:
2014
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Países Bajos
Pais de publicación:
Estados Unidos