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Modeling the impact of climate change on the dynamics of Rift Valley Fever.
Mpeshe, Saul C; Luboobi, Livingstone S; Nkansah-Gyekye, Yaw.
Afiliación
  • Mpeshe SC; School of CoCSE, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania.
  • Luboobi LS; School of CoCSE, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania ; Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda.
  • Nkansah-Gyekye Y; School of CoCSE, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2014: 627586, 2014.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24795775
A deterministic SEIR model of rift valley fever (RVF) with climate change parameters was considered to compute the basic reproduction number ℛ 0 and investigate the impact of temperature and precipitation on ℛ 0. To study the effect of model parameters to ℛ 0, sensitivity and elasticity analysis of ℛ 0 were performed. When temperature and precipitation effects are not considered, ℛ 0 is more sensitive to the expected number of infected Aedes spp. due to one infected livestock and more elastic to the expected number of infected livestock due to one infected Aedes spp. When climatic data are used, ℛ 0 is found to be more sensitive and elastic to the expected number of infected eggs laid by Aedes spp. via transovarial transmission, followed by the expected number of infected livestock due to one infected Aedes spp. and the expected number of infected Aedes spp. due to one infected livestock for both regions Arusha and Dodoma. These results call for attention to parameters regarding incubation period, the adequate contact rate of Aedes spp. and livestock, the infective periods of livestock and Aedes spp., and the vertical transmission in Aedes species.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Fiebre del Valle del Rift / Virus de la Fiebre del Valle del Rift / Cambio Climático Tipo de estudio: Diagnostic_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Animals Idioma: En Revista: Comput Math Methods Med Asunto de la revista: INFORMATICA MEDICA Año: 2014 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Tanzania Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos
Texto completo
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XML
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Fiebre del Valle del Rift / Virus de la Fiebre del Valle del Rift / Cambio Climático Tipo de estudio: Diagnostic_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Límite: Animals Idioma: En Revista: Comput Math Methods Med Asunto de la revista: INFORMATICA MEDICA Año: 2014 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Tanzania Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos