Semen parameters can be considered useful predictors of sperm fertility. The objective of this study was to address the question of whether differences in in vivo fertility after the use of different ejaculates could be predicted using sperm kinematics, capacitation status, and sperm penetration ability under commercial pig production conditions. The percentage of capacitated sperm, as assessed by chlortetracycline (CTC) staining, was positively correlated with litter size (p<0.01). Our data suggest that litter size increases in proportion to the number of capacitated spermatozoa. When all semen parameters (kinematics, sperm capacitation status, and sperm penetration ability) and litter size were included in a multiple linear regression analysis, significant associations were found between the percentage of capacitated sperm (B-type), the sperm fertility index as assessed by a sperm penetration assay (SPA), and litter size. This relationship between capacitated sperm and litter size, however, was more predictive for smaller litter groups than larger ones. We found that the percentage of B-type sperm was significantly correlated with historic average litter size. However, there was no significant correlation between the percentage of B-type sperm and historic farrowing rates. To determine the normal range for B-type sperm, the lower limits were established as 30% for small litters (<8 piglets) and 35% for large litters. The overall accuracy of the assay was 92% and 83% for small and large litters, respectively. These results indicate that capacitation status as measured by CTC staining is a useful predictor of sperm fertility, equivalent to SPA. Moreover, original capacitation status exhibited better predictive ability for small litters than for large ones. Therefore, subfertile boars can be identified primarily by capacitation status.