BACKGROUND: Allergic rhinitis is a common disease, in which some patients will deteriorate or develop asthma. It is important to characterize these patients, thereby offering the possibility for prevention. This study evaluated eosinophil parameters as potential indicators of deteriorating allergic airway disease. METHODS: The subjects of the study included all patients who suffered seasonal allergic rhinitis and had participated in a study 6 years earlier, in which blood eosinophils, serum eosinophil cationic protein (ECP) serum eosinophil peroxidase (EPO), nasal lavage ECP and nasal lavage EPO levels were measured. Patients in the present study were interviewed on occurrence of rhinitis symptoms during the last season, rhinitis outside season, asthma-like symptoms and asthma diagnosis, and were skin-prick tested for common aeroallergens. Eosinophil parameters from the study 6 years earlier were then tested for the ability to predict occurrence of new allergies, worsening of rhinitis and occurrence of asthma. RESULTS: Forty-four patients participated in the study. In four patients seasonal rhinitis symptoms had deteriorated, 10 had experienced perennial rhinitis symptoms, 14 reported asthma-like symptoms and seven had been diagnosed with asthma. Thirteen had developed additional sensitization. Patients developing asthma-like symptoms compared with patients with no such symptoms had significantly higher serum ECP (16.7 microg/l vs 8.2 microg/l; P < or = 0.01) and serum EPO (17.9 microg/l vs 8.8 microg/l; P < or = 0.05). Results were similar, considering patients diagnosed with asthma. Blood eosinophils and nasal lavage parameters were not related to development of asthma and asthma-like symptoms. No eosinophil parameter was related to deterioration of rhinitis or additional sensitization. CONCLUSION: Serum ECP and EPO in patients with seasonal rhinitis demonstrated a high predictive ability for later development of asthma.