BACKGROUND: Successful stem cell mobilization is a prerequisite for autologous blood cell transplantation. We analyzed factors that may predict the success of stem cell mobilization in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). METHODS: We analyzed 124 consecutive patients and compared those who failed to mobilize a sufficient amount of CD34(+) cells (peak blood CD34(+) cell count <20x10(6)/L) (n=20) with those with successful mobilization (n=104). The peak blood CD34(+) cell count after mobilization was used as the marker of mobilization success against which the various predictive factors were tested. RESULTS: In univariate analysis the best predictive factors for mobilization failure were the number of different chemotherapy regimens (P<0.001), number of chemotherapy cycles (P<0.001), time from diagnosis to mobilization (P<0.001) and previous use of IFN (P<0.001). The distributions of treatment responses at mobilization were similar in the groups with successful and unsuccessful mobilization, and were CR or VGPR in 10% of all patients, PR in 54% and stable or progressive disease in 36%. Regarding the mobilization-related factors, lower leukocyte nadir (P<0.001), longer duration of leukocyte counts <1x10(9)/L (P<0.001), lower platelet nadir (P=0.001), longer duration of platelet counts <20x10(9)/L (P<0.001) and the occurrence of sepsis after the mobilization therapy (P=0.001) were significantly associated with mobilization failure. In multivariate analysis, the amount of earlier chemotherapy cycles (P=0.002), low platelet nadir (P=0.020), occurrence of sepsis at mobilization (P=0.040) and previous use of IFN (P=0.052) remained as significant predictive factors for mobilization failure. DISCUSSION: Predicting the success of stem cell mobilization beforehand may have important practical consequences. By identifying those patients who will fail to mobilize stem cells, unnecessary mobilization and collection attempts can be avoided.