AIM OF THE STUDY: The aim of this prospective cohort study was to identify the early criteria potentially predictive for outcome of permanent hypocalcemia after thyroidectomy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Serum calcium (Ca) et phosphorus (Ph) were measured daily until discharge in 2035 consecutive patients undergoing bilateral thyroidectomy. In all patients experiencing postoperative hypocalcemia, defined as a Ca < 8.0 mg/dl on two consecutive days, parathyroid hormone was measured prior initiation of calcium therapy et discharge (early PTH), et blood sample was also obtained 7 to 14 days after discharge for Ca et Ph measurements (delayed Ca et Ph). These patients were then followed up until complete resolution of hypocalcemia or at least one year. Those still needing substitutive therapy to maintain normocalcemia one year after surgery were considered to have permanent hypocalcemia. Correlation of outcome with clinical characteristics, postoperative Ca et Ph levels, early PTH, et delayed Ca et Ph were examined with univariate analysis et multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Postoperative hypocalcemia occurred in 153 patients (7.5%) and spontaneously recovered in all but 7 patients (0.3%). Delayed Ca, and delayed Ph were found to be predictive for outcome of hypocalcemia by univariate analysis (p < 0.01). Relative risk to develop permanent hypocalcemia was 15 for patients with early PTH < 12 pg/ml, 52 when delayed Ph was > 4.0 mg/dl, and 121 when delayed Ca was < 8.0 mg/dl. None of the 113 patients with delayed Ca > or = 8.0 mg/dl and delayed Ph < or = 4.0 mg/dl developed permanent hypocalcemia, in contrast to 1 out of 31 patients (3%) with delayed Ca > 8.0 mg/dl or delayed Ph > 4.0 mg/dl, and 6 out of 9 patients (66%) with delayed Ca < 8.0 mg/dl and delayed Ph > 4.0 mg/dl. Both delayed Ca and delayed Ph appeared as independent factors predicting outcome of hypocalcemia at one year with multivariate logistic regression analysis. CONCLUSION: Delayed serum calcium and phosphorus levels, when measured one week after starting calcium therapy but prior to administration of any vitamin D analogs, accurately predict outcome of hypocalcemia after thyroidectomy. Patients with delayed Ca under 8.0 mg/dl and/or delayed Ph above 4.0 mg/dl are at high risk to develop permanent hypocalcemia.