RESUMO
A useful parametric specification for the expected value of an epidemiological process is revived, and its statistical and empirical efficacy are explored. The Richards' curve is flexible enough to adapt to several growth phenomena, including recent epidemics and outbreaks. Here, two different estimation methods are described. The first, based on likelihood maximisation, is particularly useful when the outbreak is still ongoing and the main goal is to obtain sufficiently accurate estimates in negligible computational run-time. The second is fully Bayesian and allows for more ambitious modelling attempts such as the inclusion of spatial and temporal dependence, but it requires more data and computational resources. Regardless of the estimation approach, the Richards' specification properly characterises the main features of any growth process (e.g. growth rate, peak phase etc.), leading to a reasonable fit and providing good short- to medium-term predictions. To demonstrate such flexibility, we show different applications using publicly available data on recent epidemics where the data collection processes and transmission patterns are extremely heterogeneous, as well as benchmark datasets widely used in the literature as illustrative.
Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Funções Verossimilhança , Modelos Estatísticos , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Epidemiológicos , Métodos EpidemiológicosAssuntos
COVID-19 , Surtos de Doenças , Mpox , Vacinas Virais , Humanos , África/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra COVID-19/economia , Vacinas contra COVID-19/provisão & distribuição , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Mpox/epidemiologia , Mpox/prevenção & controle , Mpox/virologia , Vacinas Virais/economia , Vacinas Virais/provisão & distribuição , AprendizagemRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: The World Health Organization declared the current monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on July 23, 2022, as it has posed a great threat to human health. This bibliometric analysis aimed to explore the current research hotspots focused on monkeypox. METHODS: A systematic search of the Web of Science Core Collection database was conducted for published articles on monkeypox from database inception to February 23, 2023. VOSviewer software was used for analysis and visualization of research results. RESULTS: A total of 1646 publications on monkeypox virus were included for bibliometric analysis. Results showed that (1) the number of publications about monkeypox virus increased significantly in 2022, (2) smallpox and monkeypox virus were popular research keywords, (3) the United States has made the most significant contribution to the study of monkeypox virus, (4) Journal of Virology was the most active journal in publishing articles about monkeypox, and (5) research themes mainly included the body's reaction after monkeypox infection, epidemiology, diagnosis, and pathological mechanisms. CONCLUSIONS: Future research should focus on early sensitive diagnostic measures of monkeypox and the development of vaccines based on the characteristics of the virus. Study findings also provided key areas for public health experts to focus on and collaborate with policymakers.
Assuntos
Bibliometria , Monkeypox virus , Mpox , Humanos , Monkeypox virus/patogenicidade , Mpox/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Publicações/estatística & dados numéricos , Publicações/tendênciasRESUMO
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a Class C infectious disease that carries particularly high risk for preschool children and is a leading cause of childhood death in some countries. We mimic the periodic outbreak of HFMD over a 2-year period-with differing amplitudes-and propose a dynamic HFMD model that differentiates transmission between mature and immature individuals and uses two possible optimal-control strategies to minimize case numbers, total costs and deaths. We parameterized the model by fitting it to HFMD data in mainland China from January 2011 to December 2018, and the basic reproduction number was estimated as 0.9599. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that transmission between immature and mature individuals contributes substantially to new infections. Increasing the isolation rates of infectious individuals-particularly mature infectious individuals-could greatly reduce the outbreak risk and potentially eradicate the disease in a relatively short time period. It follows that we have a reasonable chance of controlling HFMD if we can reduce transmission in children under 7 and isolate older infectious individuals.
Assuntos
Número Básico de Reprodução , Surtos de Doenças , Doença de Mão, Pé e Boca , Conceitos Matemáticos , Modelos Biológicos , Estações do Ano , Doença de Mão, Pé e Boca/transmissão , Doença de Mão, Pé e Boca/epidemiologia , Doença de Mão, Pé e Boca/prevenção & controle , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Pré-Escolar , Criança , Lactente , Fatores Etários , Simulação por Computador , Isolamento de Pacientes/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos EpidemiológicosRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with the outcome of the 2023 diphtheria outbreak in Jigawa State, Nigeria. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted amongst all line-listed diphtheria cases reported from Jigawa State, Nigeria, using the 2023 Integrated Disease and Surveillance Response line list of cases that met the World Health Organization case definition of diphtheria. A total of 245 line-listed cases from January 2023 to December 2023 met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Data were analysed using IBM SPSS version 22.0 with a P value set at ≤5%. Binary logistic regression was used to identify the independent predictors of the outcome of the 2023 outbreak. RESULTS: The maximum age of the line-listed cases was 39 years, and the minimum was 1 year with a median of 8 (interquartile range = 5-8) years. More than two-thirds (68.2%) of the cases were ≥5 years of age. More than one-third of the cases (39.6%) were from the northeast senatorial zone of the state. Out of the total 245 cases, 14 died of the disease representing a case fatality rate of 6%, and an attack rate of 3.4 per 100,000 populations. The majority of the cases (95.5%) had fever, cough (81.2%), pharyngitis (86.9%), tonsillitis (96.7%) and laryngitis (82.0%). More diphtheria-related mortalities were recorded amongst cases <5 years of age (7.7%), female cases (5.9%), rural residence (7.7%) and cases from the northeast senatorial zone (8.2%) of the state. Significantly higher mortalities (8.8%, P = 0.003) were recorded amongst cases with nasopharyngitis. The odds of diphtheria-related mortality were higher amongst cases who presented clinically with nasopharyngitis and were 4 times more likely to die (adjusted odds ratio = 3.9; 95% confidence interval = 1.1-14.3) compared with those with no nasopharyngitis. CONCLUSIONS: Significantly higher mortalities were recorded amongst diphtheria cases whose samples were not taken, and those with nasopharyngitis. These findings underscored the importance of improved immunisation uptake, early and prompt case detection, investigation and proper management.
Assuntos
Difteria , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Difteria/epidemiologia , Feminino , Masculino , Adulto , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Transversais , Estudos Retrospectivos , Pré-Escolar , Criança , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Lactente , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de Risco , Vigilância da PopulaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Between 2000 and 2018, global measles deaths decreased by 73%, but the disease remains prevalent in many developing countries, especially in Africa and Asia. Although Ethiopia was attempting to eliminate the measles, it still ranks fourth in the world in terms of the number of cases. The aim of the investigation was to describe the outbreak and identify its determinants in the Aneded district. METHODS: Between March 3, 2020, and April 2, 2020, the 89 patients and 178 controls participated in a case-control study. Data were gathered by means of in-person interviews with household leaders. The attack and case fatality rates were determined. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, variables having a p-value of less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant cut-off points. RESULTS: An investigation was conducted on a total of 89 measles cases, with 3 deaths and 178 controls. In total, there were 1.65 attacks per 1000 people, or 3.4% of the case fatality rate. There were 155 days of outbreak duration. The disease was significantly associated with being female [adjusted odds ratios (AOR) = 2.66; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.38-5.11], under 5 years old [AOR = 7.24; 95% CI = 2.58-20.31], positive in attitude [AOR = 0.22; 95% CI = 0.11-0.42], and having a contact history [AOR = 3.19; 95% CI = 1.67-6.10]. CONCLUSION: The measles outbreak, with its higher attack and case fatality rate, has been influenced by factors like household attitudes, age, sex, contact and travel history and needs to be reduced through early detection, active surveillance, and fostering favorable attitudes towards disease prevention and control.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Sarampo , Humanos , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Sarampo/mortalidade , Etiópia/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Feminino , Masculino , Pré-Escolar , Adulto , Adolescente , Criança , Lactente , Adulto Jovem , Fatores de Risco , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Vacina contra Sarampo/administração & dosagemRESUMO
Understanding the interplay between social activities and disease dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions. Recent studies using coupled behavior-disease models assumed homogeneous populations. However, heterogeneity in population, such as different social groups, cannot be ignored. In this study, we divided the population into social media users and non-users, and investigated the impact of homophily (the tendency for individuals to associate with others similar to themselves) and online events on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that homophily hinders the adoption of vaccinating strategies, hastening the approach to a tipping point after which the population converges to an endemic equilibrium with no vaccine uptake. Furthermore, we find that online events can significantly influence disease dynamics, with early discussions on social media platforms serving as an early warning signal of potential disease outbreaks. Our model provides insights into the mechanisms underlying these phenomena and underscores the importance of considering homophily in disease modeling and public health strategies.
Assuntos
Mídias Sociais , Humanos , Mídias Sociais/estatística & dados numéricos , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Comportamento SocialRESUMO
Objective: Epidemics are sudden and rapidly spreading. Hospitals in underdeveloped areas are particularly vulnerable in case of an outbreak. This paper aims to assess the epidemic risk state and its change trend of hospitals in different epidemic stages, identify the key factors affecting hospital epidemic risk change, provide priority reference for hospital epidemic risk control, and enhance the hospital's ability to respond to sudden epidemics. Methods: Based on Grounded theory, the epidemic risk indicators that affect hospital safety are summarized. The concept of epidemic risk state and its random state space is proposed according to Markov chain theory. The impact of each indicator on the random risk state and its change is comprehensively assessed from two aspects: risk occurrence probability and risk loss. Finally, the assessment of the hospital epidemic risk state and its change at different stages is achieved. Results: The stable risk states of public hospitals in underdeveloped areas in non-epidemic stage t0, early epidemic stage t1, and outbreak stage t2 are P ^ t 0 ( S n ) = { 0 . 142 , 0 . 546 , 0 . 220 , 0 . 093 } , P ^ t 1 ( S n ) = { 0 . 025 , 0 . 364 , 0 . 254 , 0 . 357 } , and P ^ t 2 ( S n ) = { 0 . 020 , 0 . 241 , 0 . 191 , 0 . 548 } , respectively. In non-epidemic stage, the key factor in improving the hospital epidemic risk state is emergency funding. In early epidemic stage, the key factors in improving the hospital epidemic risk state are the training of medical staff in epidemic prevention skills and the management of public health. In outbreak state, the key factor in improving the hospital epidemic risk state is the training of medical staff in epidemic prevention skills and psychological awareness. Conclusion: This paper proposes the concept of epidemic risk state, providing an effective assessment method for the epidemic risk state and its change trend in public hospitals. According to the assessment, public hospitals in underdeveloped areas in different epidemic stages should adopt different risk control strategies to improve their current risk state. Blind risk control is inefficient and may even cause the epidemic risk to transition toward a more dangerous state.
Assuntos
Epidemias , Hospitais Públicos , Humanos , Hospitais Públicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Medição de Risco , Cadeias de Markov , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Teoria FundamentadaRESUMO
Reducing spillover of zoonotic pathogens is an appealing approach to preventing human disease and minimizing the risk of future epidemics and pandemics. Although the immediate human health benefit of reducing spillover is clear, over time, spillover reduction could lead to counterintuitive negative consequences for human health. Here, we use mathematical models and computer simulations to explore the conditions under which unanticipated consequences of spillover reduction can occur in systems where the severity of disease increases with age at infection. Our results demonstrate that, because the average age at infection increases as spillover is reduced, programs that reduce spillover can actually increase population-level disease burden if the clinical severity of infection increases sufficiently rapidly with age. If, however, immunity wanes over time and reinfection is possible, our results reveal that negative health impacts of spillover reduction become substantially less likely. When our model is parameterized using published data on Lassa virus in West Africa, it predicts that negative health outcomes are possible, but likely to be restricted to a small subset of populations where spillover is unusually intense. Together, our results suggest that adverse consequences of spillover reduction programs are unlikely but that the public health gains observed immediately after spillover reduction may fade over time as the age structure of immunity gradually re-equilibrates to a reduced force of infection.
Assuntos
Simulação por Computador , Zoonoses , Humanos , Animais , Zoonoses/transmissão , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Zoonoses/prevenção & controle , Zoonoses/virologia , Biologia Computacional , Saúde Pública , Febre Lassa/epidemiologia , Febre Lassa/prevenção & controle , Febre Lassa/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Medição de Risco , África Ocidental/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Background: West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Serbia, where it has been detected as a cause of infection in humans since 2012. We analyzed and modelled WNV transmission patterns in the country between 2012 and 2023. Methods: We applied a previously developed modelling approach to quantify epidemiological parameters of interest and to identify the most important environmental drivers of the force of infection (FOI) by means of statistical analysis in the human population in the country. Results: During the study period, 1,387 human cases were recorded, with substantial heterogeneity across years. We found that spring temperature is of paramount importance for WNV transmission, as FOI magnitude and peak timing are positively associated with it. Furthermore, FOI is also estimated to be greater in regions with a larger fraction of older adult people, who are at higher risk to develop severe infections. Conclusion: Our results highlight that temperature plays a key role in shaping WNV outbreak magnitude in Serbia, confirming the association between spring climatic conditions and WNV human transmission risk and thus pointing out the importance of this factor as a potential early warning predictor for timely application of preventive and control measures.
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Surtos de Doenças , Estações do Ano , Febre do Nilo Ocidental , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental , Sérvia/epidemiologia , Humanos , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/epidemiologia , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Temperatura , Feminino , Idoso , Masculino , Adolescente , Animais , Adulto Jovem , CriançaRESUMO
Background: Rotavirus is globally recognized as an important cause of acute gastroenteritis in young children. Whereas previous studies focused more on sporadic diarrhea, the epidemiological characteristics of rotavirus outbreaks have not been systematically understood. Methods: This systematic review was carried out according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis standards, WANFANG, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), PubMed, and Web of Science databases were searched from database inception to February 20, 2022. We used SPSS 21.0 statistical software for data analysis, RStudio1.4.1717, and ArcGIS trial version for plotting bar graphs and maps. Results: Among 1,596 articles, 78 were included, with 92 rotavirus outbreaks and 96,128 cases. Most outbreaks (67.39%, 62/92) occurred in winter and spring. The number of rotavirus outbreaks reported in the eastern region was more than that in the western region. Outbreaks were most commonly reported in villages (33/92, 35.87%), followed by hospitals (19, 20.65%). The outbreak duration was longer in factories and workers' living places, and villages, while it was shorter in hospitals. Waterborne transmission was the main transmission mode, with the longest duration and the largest number of cases. Rotavirus groups were identified in 66 outbreaks, with 40 outbreaks (60.61%) caused by Group B rotaviruses and 26 outbreaks (39.39%) caused by Group A rotaviruses. Significant differences were found in duration, number of cases, settings, population distribution, and transmission modes between Groups A and B rotavirus outbreaks. Conclusion: Rotavirus is an important cause of acute gastroenteritis outbreaks in China. It should also be considered in the investigation of acute gastroenteritis outbreaks, especially norovirus-negative outbreaks.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Infecções por Rotavirus , Humanos , Infecções por Rotavirus/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , China/epidemiologia , Rotavirus , Gastroenterite/epidemiologia , Gastroenterite/virologia , Estações do AnoRESUMO
The emergence of dengue viruses in new, susceptible human populations worldwide is increasingly influenced by a combination of local and global human movements and favorable environmental conditions. While various mathematical models have explored the impact of environmental factors on dengue outbreaks, the significant role of human mobility both internationally and domestically in transmitting the disease has been less frequently addressed. In this context, we introduce a modeling framework that integrates the effects of international travel-induced imported cases, climatic conditions, and local human movements to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue transmission. Utilizing the generation matrix method, we calculate the basic reproduction number and its sensitivity to various model parameters. Through numerical simulations using data on climate, human mobility, and reported dengue cases in mainland China, our model demonstrates a good agreement with observed data upon validation. Our findings reveal that while climatic conditions are a key driver for the rapid dengue transmission, human mobility plays a crucial role in its local spread. Importantly, the model highlights the significant impact of imported cases from overseas on the initiation of dengue outbreaks and their contribution to increasing the disease incidence rate by 34.6%. Furthermore, the analysis identifies that dengue cases originating from regions, such as Cambodia and Myanmar internationally, and Guangzhou and Xishuangbanna domestically, have the potential to significantly increase the disease burden in mainland China. These insights emphasize the critical need to include data on imported cases and domestic travel patterns in disease outbreak models to improve the precision of predictions, thereby enhancing dengue prevention, surveillance, and response strategies.
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Dengue , Surtos de Doenças , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/transmissão , Humanos , China/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos , Vírus da Dengue , Simulação por ComputadorRESUMO
Human behaviors have non-negligible impacts on spread of contagious disease. For instance, large-scale gathering and high mobility of population could lead to accelerated disease transmission, while public behavioral changes in response to pandemics may effectively reduce contacts and suppress the peak of the outbreak. In order to understand how spatial characteristics like population mobility and clustering interplay with epidemic outbreaks, we formulate a stochastic-statistical environment-epidemic dynamic system (SEEDS) via an agent-based biased random walk model on a two-dimensional lattice. The "popularity" and "awareness" variables are taken into consideration to capture human natural and preventive behavioral factors, which are assumed to guide and bias agent movement in a combined way. It is found that the presence of the spatial heterogeneity, like social influence locality and spatial clustering induced by self-aggregation, potentially suppresses the contacts between agents and consequently flats the epidemic curve. Surprisedly, disease responses might not necessarily reduce the susceptibility of informed individuals and even aggravate disease outbreak if each individual responds independently upon their awareness. The disease control is achieved effectively only if there are coordinated public-health interventions and public compliance to these measures. Therefore, our model may be useful for quantitative evaluations of a variety of public-health policies.
Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Biologia Computacional/métodos , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Processos EstocásticosAssuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Emergências , Saúde Global , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Humanos , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Emergências/epidemiologia , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Organização Mundial da Saúde/organização & administraçãoRESUMO
This Medical News article discusses the World Health Organization's emergency declaration related to an mpox outbreak in Africa and the emergence of a new virus strain spread by sexual contact.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Emergências , Saúde Global , Mpox , Humanos , África/epidemiologia , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Mpox/epidemiologia , Mpox/prevenção & controle , Mpox/transmissão , Mpox/virologia , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Monkeypox virus/genética , Monkeypox virus/isolamento & purificação , Monkeypox virus/patogenicidade , Virulência/genética , Vacinação em Massa , Vacina Antivariólica/administração & dosagemRESUMO
BackgroundBy mid-September 2023, several event notifications related to cryptosporidiosis had been identified from different regions in Spain. Therefore, a request for urgent notification of cryptosporidiosis cases to the National Surveillance Network was launched.AimWe aimed at assessing the extent of the increase in cases, the epidemiological characteristics and the transmission modes and compared to previous years.MethodsWe analysed data on case notifications, outbreak reports and genotypes focusing on June-October 2023 and compared the results to 2016-2022.ResultsIn 2023, 4,061 cryptosporidiosis cases were notified in Spain, which is an increase compared to 2016-2022. The cumulative incidence was 8.3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023, sixfold higher than the median of 1.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants 2016-2022. Almost 80% of the cases were notified between June and October. The largest outbreaks were related to contaminated drinking water or swimming pools. Cryptosporidium hominis was the most common species in the characterised samples (115/122), and the C. hominis IfA12G1R5 subtype, previously unusual in Spain, was detected from 76 (62.3%) of the 122 characterised samples.ConclusionsA substantial increase in cryptosporidiosis cases was observed in 2023. Strengthening surveillance of Cryptosporidium is essential for prevention of cases, to better understand trends and subtypes circulating and the impact of adverse meteorological events.
Assuntos
Criptosporidiose , Cryptosporidium , Surtos de Doenças , Criptosporidiose/epidemiologia , Humanos , Espanha/epidemiologia , Cryptosporidium/isolamento & purificação , Cryptosporidium/genética , Masculino , Incidência , Adulto , Feminino , Pré-Escolar , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Criança , Lactente , Idoso , Adulto Jovem , Genótipo , Vigilância da População , Água Potável/parasitologia , Piscinas , Notificação de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Recém-Nascido , Fezes/parasitologiaRESUMO
The Ebola virus disease (EVD) has been endemic since 1976, and the case fatality rate is extremely high. EVD is spread by infected animals, symptomatic individuals, dead bodies, and contaminated environment. In this paper, we formulate an EVD model with four transmission modes and a time delay describing the incubation period. Through dynamical analysis, we verify the importance of blocking the infection source of infected animals. We get the basic reproduction number without considering the infection source of infected animals. And, it is proven that the model has a globally attractive disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than unity; the disease eventually becomes endemic when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Taking the EVD epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014-2016 as an example, we complete the data fitting by combining the effect of the media to obtain the unknown parameters, the basic reproduction number and its time-varying reproduction number. It is shown by parameter sensitivity analysis that the contact rate and the removal rate of infected group have the greatest influence on the prevalence of the disease. And, the disease-controlling thresholds of these two parameters are obtained. In addition, according to the existing vaccination strategy, only the inoculation ratio in high-risk areas is greater than 0.4, the effective reproduction number can be less than unity. And, the earlier the vaccination time, the greater the inoculation ratio, and the faster the disease can be controlled.
Assuntos
Número Básico de Reprodução , Ebolavirus , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola , Conceitos Matemáticos , Modelos Biológicos , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/transmissão , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/prevenção & controle , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/epidemiologia , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Animais , Serra Leoa/epidemiologia , Ebolavirus/patogenicidade , Ebolavirus/fisiologia , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Simulação por Computador , Modelos Epidemiológicos , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
Introduction: Norovirus is widely recognized as a leading cause of both sporadic cases and outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) across all age groups. The GII.4 Sydney 2012 variant has consistently prevailed since 2012, distinguishing itself from other variants that typically circulate for a period of 2-4 years. Objective: This review aims to systematically summarize the prevalence of norovirus gastroenteritis following emergence of the GII.4 Sydney 2012 variant. Methods: Data were collected from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases spanning the period between January 2012 and August 2022. A meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the global prevalence and distribution patterns of norovirus gastroenteritis from 2012 to 2022. Results: The global pooled prevalence of norovirus gastroenteritis was determined to be 19.04% (16.66-21.42%) based on a comprehensive analysis of 70 studies, which included a total of 85,798 sporadic cases with acute gastroenteritis and identified 15,089 positive cases for norovirus. The prevalence rate is higher in winter than other seasons, and there are great differences among countries and age groups. The pooled attack rate of norovirus infection is estimated to be 36.89% (95% CI, 36.24-37.55%), based on a sample of 6,992 individuals who tested positive for norovirus out of a total population of 17,958 individuals exposed during outbreak events. Conclusion: The global prevalence of norovirus gastroenteritis is always high, necessitating an increased emphasis on prevention and control strategies with vaccine development for this infectious disease, particularly among the children under 5 years old and the geriatric population (individuals over 60 years old).