RESUMO
Back in the 17th century the Derbyshire village of Eyam fell victim to the Black Death, which is thought to have arrived from London in some old clothes brought by a travelling tailor. The village population was 350 at the commencement of plague, of which only 83 survived. Led by the church leaders, the village community realized that the whole surrounding region was at risk from the epidemic, and therefore decided to seal themselves off from the other surrounding villages. In the first 275 days of the outbreak, transmission was predominantly from infected fleas to susceptible humans. From then onward, mortality sharply increased, which indicates a changing in transmission pattern. We hypothesize that the confinement facilitated the spread of the infection by increasing the contact rate through direct transmission among humans. This would be more consistent with pulmonary plague, a deadlier form of the disease. In order to test the above hypothesis we designed a mathematical model for plague dynamics, incorporating both the indirect (fleas-rats-humans) and direct (human-to-human) transmissions of the infection. Our results show remarkable agreement between data and the model, lending support to our hypotheses. The Eyam plague episode is celebrated as a remarkable act of collective self-sacrifice. However, to the best of our knowledge, there were no evidence before that the confinement actually increased the burden payed by the commoners. In the light of our results, it can be said that the hypothesis that confinement facilitated the spread of the infection by increasing the contact rate through direct transmission is plausible.
Assuntos
Modelos Biológicos , Peste/parasitologia , Peste/transmissão , Sifonápteros/patogenicidade , Isolamento Social , Infecções por Yersinia pseudotuberculosis/parasitologia , Infecções por Yersinia pseudotuberculosis/transmissão , Animais , Doenças Transmissíveis/história , Doenças Transmissíveis/mortalidade , Doenças Transmissíveis/parasitologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Simulação por Computador , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Surtos de Doenças/história , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Grécia , História do Século XVIII , História Antiga , Humanos , Peste/mortalidade , Ratos , Infecções por Yersinia pseudotuberculosis/mortalidadeRESUMO
Streptomycin, an antimicrobial with limited availability, is the treatment of choice for plague, a fulminating and potentially epidemic disease that poses a bioterrorism concern. We evaluated the efficacy of gentamicin and tetracyclines for treating human plague. A medical record review was conducted on all 75 patients with plague who were reported in New Mexico during 1985-1999. Fifty patients were included in an analysis that compared streptomycin-treated patients (n=14) with those treated with gentamicin and/or a tetracycline (n=36). The mean numbers of fever days, hospital days, and complications and the number of deaths did not differ between patients treated with streptomycin and those treated with gentamicin. One patient who received tetracycline alone experienced a serious complication. Gentamicin alone or in combination with a tetracycline was as efficacious as streptomycin for treating human plague. The efficacy of a tetracycline alone could not be determined from the study.