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Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

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O Programa em Saúde Ambiental relacionado a populações expostas à poluição do ar do Município de São Paulo (VIGIAR) tem por objetivo desenvolver ações de vigilância em saúde ambiental, para populações expostas aos poluentes atmosféricos, de forma a orientar medidas de prevenção, promoção da saúde e de atenção integral, conforme preconizado pelo Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).

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O Programa em Saúde Ambiental relacionado a populações expostas à poluição do ar do Município de São Paulo (VIGIAR) tem por objetivo desenvolver ações de vigilância em saúde ambiental, para populações expostas aos poluentes atmosféricos, de forma a orientar medidas de prevenção, promoção da saúde e de atenção integral, conforme preconizado pelo Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).

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O Programa em Saúde Ambiental relacionado a populações expostas à poluição do ar do Município de São Paulo (VIGIAR) tem por objetivo desenvolver ações de vigilância em saúde ambiental, para populações expostas aos poluentes atmosféricos, de forma a orientar medidas de prevenção, promoção da saúde e de atenção integral, conforme preconizado pelo Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).

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O Programa em Saúde Ambiental relacionado a populações expostas à poluição do ar do Município de São Paulo (VIGIAR) tem por objetivo desenvolver ações de vigilância em saúde ambiental, para populações expostas aos poluentes atmosféricos, de forma a orientar medidas de prevenção, promoção da saúde e de atenção integral, conforme preconizado pelo Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).

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O Programa em Saúde Ambiental relacionado a populações expostas à poluição do ar do Município de São Paulo (VIGIAR) tem por objetivo desenvolver ações de vigilância em saúde ambiental, para populações expostas aos poluentes atmosféricos, de forma a orientar medidas de prevenção, promoção da saúde e de atenção integral, conforme preconizado pelo Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).

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The impacts of climate change may be particularly severe for geographically isolated populations, which must adjust through plastic responses or evolve. Here, we study an endangered Arctic plant, Primula nutans ssp. finmarchica, confined to Fennoscandian seashores and showing indications of maladaptation to warming climate. We evaluate the potential of these populations to evolve to facilitate survival in the rapidly warming Arctic (i.e. evolutionary rescue) by utilizing manual crossing experiments in a nested half-sibling breeding design. We estimate G-matrices, evolvability and genetic constraints in traits with potentially conflicting selection pressures. To explicitly evaluate the potential for climate change adaptation, we infer the expected time to evolve from a northern to a southern phenotype under different selection scenarios, using demographic and climatic data to relate expected evolutionary rates to projected rates of climate change. Our results indicate that, given the nearly 10-fold greater evolvability of vegetative than of floral traits, adaptation in these traits may take place nearly in concert with changing climate, given effective climate mitigation. However, the comparatively slow expected evolutionary modification of floral traits may hamper the evolution of floral traits to track climate-induced changes in pollination environment, compromising sexual reproduction and thus reducing the likelihood of evolutionary rescue.

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Distrust in science has been linked to scepticism over vaccines and climate change. Using data from nationally representative surveys administered in eight key countries for global efforts to mitigate climate change and COVID-19 (Australia, Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Africa, the UK and US), we find that distrust in scientists was an important predictor variable for most sceptics, who were sceptical of one issue but not both, in February 2021, when most countries had experienced their first wave of the pandemic. However, the association was significantly weaker among the segment of hardcore sceptics who were both climate sceptics and antivaxxers. We demonstrate that these individuals tended to possess many of the typical sceptic characteristics such as high distrust in social institutions and rightward political orientation, which are (collectively) suggestive of an underlying sceptic mindset rather than a specific distrust of scientists. Our results suggest that different types of sceptics necessitate different strategies to dispel scepticism.

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Dengue is an arbovirus infection whose etiologic agent is transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Since the early 1980s, when the circulation of the dengue virus (DENV) was confirmed in Brazil, the disease has become a growing multifactorial public health problem. This article presented the main factors that have contributed to the frequent dengue epidemics in recent years, such as the behavior of the vector, climate change, and social, political, and economic aspects. The intersection between these different factors in the dynamics of the disease is highlighted, including the increase in the mosquito population due to higher temperatures and rainy periods, as well as the influence of socioeconomic conditions on the incidence of dengue. Some mosquito control strategies are also addressed, including the use of innovative technologies such as drones and the Wolbachia bacterium, as well as the hope represented by the dengue vaccine. Nevertheless, the need for integrated and effective public policies to reduce social inequalities and the impacts of climate change on the spread of dengue is emphasized.

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Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute relatively little to global carbon emissions but are recognised to be among the most vulnerable parts of the world to health-related consequences of climate change. To help inform resilient health systems and health policy strategies, we sought to systematically analyse published projections of the impact of rising global temperatures and other weather-related events on human health in LMICs. A systematic search involving multiple databases was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to identify studies with modelled projections of the future impact of climate change on human health. Qualitative studies, reviews and meta-analyses were excluded. The search yielded more than 2500 articles, of which 70 studies involving 37 countries met criteria for inclusion. China, Brazil and India were the most studied countries while the sub-Saharan African region was represented in only 9% of studies. Forty specific health outcomes were grouped into eight categories. Non-disease-specific temperature-related mortality was the most studied health outcome, followed by neglected tropical infections (predominantly dengue), malaria and cardiovascular diseases. Nearly all health outcomes studied were projected to increase in burden and/or experience a geographic shift in prevalence over the next century due to climate change. Progressively severe climate change scenarios were associated with worse health outcomes. Knowledge gaps identified in this analysis included insufficient studies of various high burden diseases, asymmetric distribution of studies across LMICs and limited use of some climate parameters as independent variables. Findings from this review could be the basis for future research to help inform climate mitigation and adaptation programmes aimed at safeguarding population health in LMICs.

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Climate change is causing an intensification of soil drying and rewetting events, altering microbial functioning and potentially destabilizing soil organic carbon. After rewetting, changes in microbial community carbon use efficiency (CUE), investment in life history strategies, and fungal to bacterial dominance co-occur. Still, we have yet to generalize what drives these dynamic responses. Here, we collated 123 time series of microbial community growth (G, sum of fungal and bacterial growth, evaluated by leucine and acetate incorporation, respectively) and respiration (R) after rewetting and calculated CUE = G/(G + R). First, we characterized CUE recovery by two metrics: maximum CUE and time to maximum CUE. Second, we translated microbial growth and respiration data into microbial investments in life history strategies (high yield (Y), resource acquisition (A), and stress tolerance (S)). Third, we characterized the temporal change in fungal to bacterial dominance. Finally, the metrics describing the CUE recovery, investment in life history strategies, and fungal to bacterial dominance after rewetting were explained by environmental factors and microbial properties. CUE increased after rewetting as fungal dominance declined, but the maximum CUE was explained by the CUE under moist conditions, rather than specific environmental factors. In contrast, higher soil pH and carbon availability accelerated the decline of microbial investment in stress tolerance and fungal dominance. We conclude that microbial CUE recovery is mostly driven by the shifting microbial community composition and the metabolic capacity of the community, whereas changes in microbial investment in life history strategies and fungal versus bacterial dominance depend on soil pH and carbon availability.

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Objectives: Marine biodiversity and ecosystem services in the high seas are threatened by numerous stress factors caused by human activities, including global shipping, high-sea fishing, marine plastic pollution, and anthropogenic climate change. Socioeconomic factors are one of the criteria for the establishment of area-based management tools in the high seas for marine biodiversity conservation beyond national jurisdiction. The aim of the work is to propose a spatiotemporal approach to identify risks from marine human activities and recommendations for high seas governance. Methods: Data related to human activities from 2014 to 2022 were used to calculate the distribution and changes of human-related stressors, and the risk to marine biodiversity in the high seas caused by human activities. Results: The North Atlantic, Philippine Sea, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and East Central Atlantic show high and increasing intensities of human-related stressors, and are therefore particularly at need for the protection and conservation of marine biodiversity. Risks from human activities vary within the marine areas that are prioritized for biodiversity protection. The study recommends that the designation of high seas protected areas should take into account the types of risks to which the different marine areas are exposed, and that the high seas protected areas should be established gradually. At the same time, appropriate management measures should be formulated according to the intensity of human activities in the different marine areas. Conclusions: Quantifying and classifying the risk from human-related stressors could help identify solution for the protection and conservation and facilitate the marine spatial planning, establishment area based management tools, including marine protected areas in the high seas.

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This research article investigates the intricate interplay between climate change, global sea level rise (SLR), and the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal regions of India. Through an interdisciplinary approach, this paper provides an overview of the global consequences of SLR on coastal communities, exploring economic, social, and environmental impacts on agriculture, communities, and coastal areas. The study examines the displacement of communities and its impact on food security, infrastructure, tourism, and ecological loss based on a comprehensive literature review. This paper emphasizes the sustainable preservation of coastal ecosystems and the development of climate-resilient infrastructure. This research aims to offer a detailed understanding of the evolving landscape of coastal livelihoods, providing valuable insights for adaptive strategies, policy formulation, and sustainable development. Ultimately, this article contributes to the scientific discourse by shedding light on the complex dynamics between climate change, SLR, and coastal communities, guiding efforts toward a resilient and sustainable future. The insights are drawn from secondary data resources, including books, scholarly journals, and reports from organizations such as the IPCC and NOAA. Based on a thorough review of the relevant literature, it critically examines the existing and potential consequences of sea level rise induced by climate change.

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Although climate change is predicted to have a substantial effect on the energetic requirements of organisms, the longer-term implications are often unclear. Sloths are limited by the rate at which they can acquire energy and are unable to regulate core body temperature (Tb) to the extent seen in most mammals. Therefore, the metabolic impacts of climate change on sloths are expected to be profound. Here we use indirect calorimetry to measure the oxygen consumption (VO2) and Tb of highland and lowland two-fingered sloths (Choloepus hoffmanni) when exposed to a range of different ambient temperatures (Ta) (18 °C -34 °C), and additionally record changes in Tb and posture over several days in response to natural fluctuations in Ta. We use the resultant data to predict the impact of future climate change on the metabolic rate and Tb of the different sloth populations. The metabolic responses of sloths originating from the two sites differed at high Ta's, with lowland sloths invoking metabolic depression as temperatures rose above their apparent 'thermally-active zone' (TAZ), whereas highland sloths showed increased RMR. Based on climate change estimates for the year 2100, we predict that high-altitude sloths are likely to experience a substantial increase in metabolic rate which, due to their intrinsic energy processing limitations and restricted geographical plasticity, may make their survival untenable in a warming climate.

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Many variables in biological research-from body size to life-history timing to environmental characteristics-are measured continuously (e.g. body mass in kilograms) but analysed as categories (e.g. large versus small), which can lower statistical power and change interpretation. We conducted a mini-review of 72 recent publications in six popular ecology, evolution and behaviour journals to quantify the prevalence of categorization. We then summarized commonly categorized metrics and simulated a dataset to demonstrate the drawbacks of categorization using common variables and realistic examples. We show that categorizing continuous variables is common (31% of publications reviewed). We also underscore that predictor variables can and should be collected and analysed continuously. Finally, we provide recommendations on how to keep variables continuous throughout the entire scientific process. Together, these pieces comprise an actionable guide to increasing statistical power and facilitating large synthesis studies by simply leaving continuous variables alone. Overcoming the pitfalls of categorizing continuous variables will allow ecologists, ethologists and evolutionary biologists to continue making trustworthy conclusions about natural processes, along with predictions about their responses to climate change and other environmental contexts.

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Global change is believed to be a major driver of the emergence of invasive pathogens. Yet, there are few documented examples that illustrate the processes that hinder or trigger their geographic spread. Here, we present phylogenetic, epidemiological and historical evidence to explain how European vineyards escaped Xylella fastidiosa (Xf), the vector-borne bacterium responsible for Pierce's disease (PD). Using Bayesian temporal reconstruction, we show that the export of American grapevines to France as rootstocks to combat phylloxera (~1872-1895) preceded the spread of the Xf grapevine lineage in the USA. We found that the time of the most recent common ancestor in California dates to around 1875, which agrees with the emergence of the first PD outbreak and the expansion into the southeastern US around 1895. We also show that between 1870 and 1990, climatic conditions in continental Europe were mostly below the threshold for the development of PD epidemics. However, our model indicates an inadvertent expansion of risk in southern Europe since the 1990s, which is accelerating with global warming. Our temporal approach identifies the biogeographical conditions that have so far prevented PD in southern European wine-producing areas and predicts that disease risk will increase substantially with increasing temperatures.

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Body size is a key morphological trait that affects physiology and metabolism, as well as other relevant traits such as fertility and mating success. Some evidence points to a trend of shrinking body size with increasing temperature, but this is far from unequivocal. Here, we assess the evolution of body size under a warming environment in experimentally evolved Drosophila subobscura populations from two distinct geographical origins, tested in both ancestral and warming environments. We observed a decrease in body size in the warming populations, but only in the lower-latitude populations and only when tested in the ancestral (control) environment. The absence of a body size response in the warming environment may be owing to a balance between forces promoting thermodynamic stability-leading to a tendency for body size to decrease-and selection for increased reproductive output-leading to an increase in body size. Our findings indicate that body size variation is complex, with genotype-by-environment interactions occurring. This may explain the lack of consistency across studies. This highlights that predictions of body size evolution under climate warming are not straightforward and emphasizes the need for considering intra- and inter-specific variation in future studies.

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Identifying the main predictors of species' extinction risk while accounting for the effects of spatial and phylogenetic structures in the data is key to preventing species loss in tropical forests through adequate conservation practices. We recorded 22 705 precise geographical locations of primate occurrence across four major geographic realms (Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar and Asia) to assess predictors of threat status using a novel Bayesian spatio-phylogenetic approach. We estimated the relative contributions of fixed factors (forest amount, body mass, home range, diel activity, locomotion, evolutionary distinctiveness and climatic instability) and random factors (space and phylogeny) to primate extinction risk. Precipitation instability increased the extinction risk in the Neotropics but decreased it in mainland Africa and Madagascar. Forest amount was negatively associated with extinction risk in all realms except Madagascar. Body mass increased the extinction risk in the Neotropics and Madagascar, whereas home range increased the extinction risk in mainland Africa and decreased it in Asia. Evolutionary distinctiveness negatively influenced extinction risk only in mainland Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change mitigation and forest protection strategies. Increasing the protection of large primates and reducing hunting are also essential.

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Climate change is currently one of humanity's greatest threats. To help scholars understand the psychology of climate change, we conducted an online quasi-experimental survey on 59,508 participants from 63 countries (collected between July 2022 and July 2023). In a between-subjects design, we tested 11 interventions designed to promote climate change mitigation across four outcomes: climate change belief, support for climate policies, willingness to share information on social media, and performance on an effortful pro-environmental behavioural task. Participants also reported their demographic information (e.g., age, gender) and several other independent variables (e.g., political orientation, perceptions about the scientific consensus). In the no-intervention control group, we also measured important additional variables, such as environmentalist identity and trust in climate science. We report the collaboration procedure, study design, raw and cleaned data, all survey materials, relevant analysis scripts, and data visualisations. This dataset can be used to further the understanding of psychological, demographic, and national-level factors related to individual-level climate action and how these differ across countries.

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Climate change is altering temperature means and variation, and both need to be considered in predictions underpinning conservation. However, there is no consensus in the literature regarding the effects of temperature fluctuations on biological functions. Fluctuations may affect biological responses because of inequalities from non-linear responses, endocrine regulation or exposure to damaging temperatures. Here we establish the current state of knowledge of how temperature fluctuations impact biological responses within individuals and populations compared to constant temperatures with the same mean. We conducted a meta-analysis of 143 studies on ectothermic animals (1492 effect sizes, 118 species). In this study, 89% of effect sizes were derived from diel cycles, but there were no significant differences between diel cycles and shorter (<8 h) or longer (>48 h) cycles in their effect on biological responses. We show that temperature fluctuations have little effect overall on trait mean and variance. Nonetheless, temperature fluctuations can be stressful: fluctuations increased 'gene expression' in aquatic animals, which was driven mainly by increased hsp70. Fluctuating temperatures also decreased longevity, and increased amplitudes had negative effects on population responses in aquatic organisms. We conclude that mean temperatures and extreme events such as heat waves are important to consider, but regular (particularly diel) temperature fluctuations are less so.

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