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BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has strained health system capacity worldwide due to a surge of hospital admissions, while mitigation measures have simultaneously reduced patients' access to health care, affecting the diagnosis and treatment of other diseases such as cancer. We estimated the impact of delayed diagnosis on cancer outcomes in Chile using a novel modelling approach to inform policies and planning to mitigate the forthcoming cancer-related health impacts of the pandemic in Chile. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of five cancers in Chile (breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach) for which reliable data were available, which simulates cancer incidence and progression in a nationally representative virtual population, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities. We calibrated the model to empirical data on monthly detected cases, as well as stage at diagnosis and 5-year net survival. We accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality and cancer detection by month during the pandemic, and projected diagnosed cancer cases and outcomes of stage at diagnosis and survival up to 2030. For comparison, we simulated a no COVID-19 scenario in which the impacts of COVID-19 on excess mortality and cancer detection were removed. FINDINGS: Our modelling showed a sharp decrease in the number of diagnosed cancer cases during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a large projected short-term increase in future diagnosed cases. Due to the projected backlog in diagnosis, we estimated that in 2021 there will be an extra 3198 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1356-5017) diagnosed among the five modelled cancers, an increase of nearly 14% compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, falling to a projected 10% increase in 2022 with 2674 extra cases (1318-4032) diagnosed. As a result of delayed diagnosis, we found a worse stage distribution for detected cancers in 2020-22, which is estimated to lead to 3542 excess cancer deaths (95% UI 2236-4816) in 2022-30, compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, among the five modelled cancers, most of which (3299 deaths, 2151-4431) are projected to occur before 2025. INTERPRETATION: In addition to a large projected surge in diagnosed cancer cases, we found that delays in diagnosis will result in worse cancer stage at presentation, leading to worse survival outcomes. These findings can help to inform surge capacity planning and highlight the importance of ensuring appropriate health system capacity levels to detect and care for the increased cancer cases in the coming years, while maintaining the timeliness and quality of cancer care. Potential delays in treatment and adverse impacts on quality of care, which were not considered in this model, are likely to contribute to even more excess deaths from cancer than projected. FUNDING: Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

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BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a complex syndrome associated with substantial morbidity, mortality and costs. Despite advancements in diagnosis and care practice, AKI remains a disorder usually under/late-recognized with high mortality. One of the hidden reasons for poor outcome might be delayed nephrology consultation, with the involvement of the specialist only in severe stages of AKI when renal replacement therapy (RRT) is required. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane central register for related work on the subject. Six studies were identified for the meta-analysis, correlating time of nephrology consultation and mortality in AKI. RESULTS: We found that delayed nephrology consultation is associated with higher mortality in AKI, with an OR 0.79 (95% CI 0.48-1.10, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Delayed nephrology consultation contributes to higher mortality in AKI. The early involvement of nephrologist may present an advantage in terms of early recognition, prevention and effective treatment of AKI. An early involvement of multidisciplinary task force may contribute to better treatment, before the preventable complications of AKI occur or an emergency RRT is required.

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BACKGROUND: The biliary atresia (BA) is the end result of a destructive and idiopathic inflammatory process affecting the intrahepatic and extrahepatic bile ducts, leading to fibrosis and biliary cirrhosis. The objective was to identify factors associated with mortality in children with BA. METHODS: Observational, longitudinal, analytical and retrospective study carried out in patients with biliary atresia treated between 2008 and 2012 in a tertiary care hospital from the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social. RESULTS: A total of 66 patients with BA; 49 were girls (74.2 %), 47 underwent hepatic portoenterostomy (or Kasai procedure: KP), the age at delivery was 4.5 months. When comparing the groups with and without KP, the lower age at the time of delivery, the age of diagnosis, a lower score on the PELD score and the Child-Pugh for the group with Kasai were statistically significant. Patients who died had a PELD score statistically higher (median 20) than those who lived (median 13), p = 0.004. The factor directly related with the mortality was the history of KP with an OR of 0.17 (95 % CI 0.04-0.71, p = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of children with BA remains gloomy because they are diagnosed in late stages. The most important factor associated with mortality in these patients is to perform KP.

Introducción: la atresia de vías biliares (AVB) es el resultado final de un proceso destructivo, idiopático e inflamatorio que afecta los conductos biliares intra y extrahepáticos, dando lugar a fibrosis y progresivamente a cirrosis biliar. El objetivo fue identificar los factores relacionados con la mortalidad en niños con AVB. Métodos: estudio observacional, longitudinal, analítico y retrospectivo aplicado a pacientes con diagnóstico de atresia de vías biliares atendidos entre los años 2008 y 2012 en hospital de tercer nivel. Resultados: se incluyeron un total de 66 pacientes con AVB; 49 (74.2 %) fueron niñas. Solo se realizó operación de Kasai a 47, la edad al momento del envío fue de 4.5 meses. Al comparar los grupos con y sin Kasai, resultaron estadísticamente significativas la edad menor al momento del envío y la edad del diagnóstico, así como un menor puntaje en el PELD score y en el CHILD-PUGH para el grupo con Kasai. Los pacientes que fallecieron tuvieron una calificación de PELD estadísticamente mayor (mediana 20) que los que vivieron (mediana 13), p = 0.004. El factor relacionado directamente con la mortalidad, fue el antecedente de cirugía de Kasai con una RM de 0.17 (IC 95 %: 0.04-0.71; p = 0.016). Conclusiones: el pronóstico de los niños con AVB continúa siendo sombrío, dado que se diagnostican en etapas tardías. El factor más importante relacionado con la mortalidad en estos pacientes es la realización de cirugía de Kasai.

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INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is among the seven global endemic diseases assigned a high priority by the World Health Organization. In Latin America, most cases occur in Brazil. Despite the availability of intensive treatment resources and protocols for specific treatment, lethality rates for VL have increased in several regions in the country over the past 10 years, particularly in patients under one and over 50 years of age. As the growth of the elderly population accelerates in Brazil, VL poses a greater challenge to public health. Given the scarcity of studies addressing the disease in this age group, the purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with VL lethality among the elderly. METHODS/KEY FINDINGS: This analytical, cross-sectional epidemiological study comprised 80 elderly patients who sought treatment at the teaching hospital of the Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, MS, Brazil, in the period 2000-2013.Clinical, laboratory and treatment variables were investigated from records of elderly patients with VL diagnosis confirmed by at least one laboratory test positive (culture for parasite or direct parasitological examination; reactive immunofluorescence; immunochromatographic test with recombinant antigens) or patients without laboratory confirmation who lived in endemic areas and responded favorably to therapeutic trial, as defined by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Of the 80 patients included, 78 tested positive to at least one exam; in two cases, diagnosis was based on clinical and epidemiological criteria. The lethality rate was 20%. Multivariate analysis revealed an association between death and time elapsed from symptom onset.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine whether there was an association between delayed medical emergency team calls and mortality after a medical emergency team review. DESIGN: This was a prospective observational study. SETTING: A university-affiliated tertiary referral hospital in Porto Alegre, Brazil. PATIENTS: All patients were reviewed by the medical emergency team from July 2008 to December 2009. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 1,481 calls for 1,148 patients. Delayed medical emergency team calls occurred for 246 patients (21.4%). The criterion associated with delay was typically the same criterion for the subsequent medical emergency team call. Physicians had a greater prevalence of delayed medical emergency team calls (110 of 246 [44.7%]) than timely medical emergency team calls (267 of 902 [29.6%]; p < 0.001). The mortality at 30 days after medical emergency team review was higher among patients with delayed medical emergency team activation (152 [61.8%]) than patients receiving timely medical emergency team activation (378 [41.9%]; p < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis, delayed medical emergency team calls remained significantly associated with higher mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Delayed medical emergency team calls are common and are independently associated with higher mortality. This result reaffirms the concept and need for a rapid response system.

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OBJECTIVE: Often, as diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2DM) evolves insidiously, prevention is commenced late and diagnosis is made when vascular damage has been set. Hence, our hypothesis is that T2DM awareness may influence the outcome of atherothrombotic events. METHODS: A consecutive cohort of patients manifesting ST-elevation myocardial infarction (MI) was classified according to the presence and awareness of the diagnosis of T2DM: known diabetes (kT2DM, n = 72), unknown diabetes (uT2DM, n = 80) and no diabetes (ND, n = 333). Medical history, laboratory data, and angiographic findings including myocardial blush grade (MBG) were prospectively obtained. The primary endpoint was in-hospital death and secondary endpoint was major adverse cardiac events (MACE) defined as sudden cardiac death, fatal MI and nonfatal MI that occurred from 30 days of study entry onwards. RESULTS: With the exception of glycated hemoglobin (p = 0.001) and triglycerides (p = 0.04), no differences were found between groups for all other biochemical, clinical or angiographic admission characteristics. Myocardial tissue reperfusion defined as MBG 3 was observed in 62% in the ND group, 50% in the kT2DM group and 23% in the uT2DM group (p = 0.01). All-cause in-hospital mortality was higher in uT2DM (16.7%) than in kT2DM (8.4%) and both groups had a higher mortality rate as compared with the ND group (3.8%, p = 0.01). During follow-up (653 ± 26 days), the incidence of MACE was higher in uT2DM than in kT2DM and in both compared to the ND group (p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Unawareness of T2DM diagnosis is strongly associated with a poor short- and long-term outcome after MI.

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OBJECTIVE: To identify the independent variables associated with death within 4 days after the first sepsis-induced organ dysfunction. METHODS: In this prospective observational study, severe sepsis and septic shock patients were classified into 3 groups: Group 1, survivors; Group 2, late non-survivors; and Group 3, early non-survivors. Early death was defined as death occurring within 4 days after the first sepsis-induced organ dysfunction. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected and submitted to univariate and multinomial analyses. RESULTS: The study included 414 patients: 218 (52.7%) in Group 1, 165 (39.8%) in Group 2, and 31 (7.5%) in Group 3. A multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score after the first 24 hours, nosocomial infection, hepatic dysfunction, and the time elapsed between the onset of organ dysfunction and the sepsis diagnosis were associated with early mortality. In contrast, Black race and a source of infection other than the urinary tract were associated with late death. Among the non-survivors, early death was associated with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, chronic renal failure, hepatic dysfunction Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score after 24 hours, and the duration of organ dysfunction. CONCLUSION: Factors related to patients' intrinsic characteristics and disease severity as well as the promptness of sepsis recognition are associated with early death among severe septic patients.

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OBJECTIVE: To identify the independent variables associated with death within 4 days after the first sepsis-induced organ dysfunction. METHODS: In this prospective observational study, severe sepsis and septic shock patients were classified into 3 groups: Group 1, survivors; Group 2, late non-survivors; and Group 3, early non-survivors. Early death was defined as death occurring within 4 days after the first sepsis-induced organ dysfunction. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected and submitted to univariate and multinomial analyses. RESULTS: The study included 414 patients: 218 (52.7%) in Group 1, 165 (39.8%) in Group 2, and 31 (7.5%) in Group 3. A multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score after the first 24 hours, nosocomial infection, hepatic dysfunction, and the time elapsed between the onset of organ dysfunction and the sepsis diagnosis were associated with early mortality. In contrast, Black race and a source of infection other than the urinary tract were associated with late death. Among the non-survivors, early death was associated with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, chronic renal failure, hepatic dysfunction Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score after 24 hours, and the duration of organ dysfunction. CONCLUSION: Factors related to patients' intrinsic characteristics and disease severity as well as the promptness of sepsis recognition are associated with early death among severe septic patients. .

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The purpose of this study is to estimate the survival probability of patients following their first admission for the treatment of AIDS to an infectious disease reference hospital in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during 2005. Study subjects were monitored during a 12-month period to identify factors associated with survival probability. Late diagnosis was recorded among many of the 250 study subjects: almost half (44.8%) were diagnosed less than 30 days prior to or during their hospitalization. A high mortality rate was also detected: 39.6% of the subjects died during the 12 months of monitoring. The cumulative survival probability of the cohort group was estimated at 68.0% after 3 months and at 61.2% after 12 months. However, certain patient subgroups analyzed had even lower cumulative survival probabilities after 12 months of monitoring: if diagnosed during hospitalization, it was estimated at only 48.0% and those with no record of antiretroviral treatment had a 48.5% cumulative survival probability. Patients with severe anemia had the lowest survival probability, similar among the two lymphocyte count groups (<1000 mm(3) and ≥1000 mm(3)), the former with a 45.5% survival probability and the latter with a 46.7% one. The proportional death risk was 2.5-fold higher for men residing in other area than the capital city of the State of Minas Gerais and greater metropolitan region when compared with women residing there. The findings of this study highlight the importance of early diagnosis for predicting patient survival and reinforce the necessity of facilitating HIV diagnosis.

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