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Survival probability measures the probability that a system taken out of equilibrium has not yet transitioned from its initial state. Inspired by the generalized entropies used to analyze nonergodic states, we introduce a generalized version of the survival probability and discuss how it can assist in studies of the structure of eigenstates and ergodicity.
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BACKGROUND: Nigeria is among the top five countries in the world with the highest under-five mortality rates. In addition to the general leading causes of under-five mortality, studies have shown that disparity in sociocultural values and practices across ethnic groups in Nigeria influence child survival, thus there is a need for scientific validation. This study quantified the survival probabilities and the impact of socioeconomic and demographic factors, proximate and biological determinants, and environmental factors on the risk of under-five mortality in Nigeria. METHODS: The Kaplan-Meier survival curve, Nelson Aalen hazard curve, and components survival probabilities were estimated. The Exponential, Gamma, Log-normal, Weibull, and Cox hazard models in a Bayesian mixed effect hierarchical hazard modeling framework with spatial components were considered, and the Deviance and Watanabe Akaike information criteria were used to select the best model for inference. A [Formula: see text] level of significance was assumed throughout this work. The 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey dataset was used, and the outcome variable was the time between birth and death or birth and the date of interview for children who were alive on the day of the interview. RESULTS: Findings show that the probability of a child dying within the first two months is 0.04, and the probability of a boy child dying before attaining age five is 0.106, while a girl child is 0.094 probability. Gender, maternal education, household wealth status, source of water and toilet facility, residence, mass media, frequency of antenatal and postnatal visits, marital status, place of delivery, multiple births, who decide healthcare use, use of bednet are significant risk factors of child mortality in Nigeria. The mortality risk is high among the maternal age group below 24 and above 44years, and birth weight below 2.5Kg and above 4.5Kg. The under-five mortality risk is severe in Kebbi, Kaduna, Jigawa, Adamawa, Gombe, Kano, Kogi, Nasarawa, Plateau, and Sokoto states in Nigeria. CONCLUSION: This study accentuates the need for special attention for the first two months after childbirth as it is the age group with the highest expected mortality. A practicable way to minimize death in the early life of children is to improve maternal healthcare service, promote maternal education, encourage delivery in healthcare facilities, positive parental attitude to support multiple births, poverty alleviation programs for the less privileged, and a prioritized intervention to Northern Nigeria.
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Prole de Múltiplos Nascimentos , Gravidez , Masculino , Criança , Humanos , Feminino , Adulto , Teorema de Bayes , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Probabilidade , EscolaridadeRESUMO
PURPOSE: Many studies have demonstrated that Sarcopenia causes a serious impact on health, including death in older adults. The objective of this study was to determine the association of sarcopenia and pre-sarcopenia with all-cause mortality in older Chileans. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Follow-up of 2311 community-dwelling people ≥ 60y from the Alexandros cohort. Anthropometric measurements, handgrip strength, mobility, and physical performance tests were performed. Sarcopenia, pre-sarcopenia, and severe sarcopenia were defined using the 2010 European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP1) algorithm. Muscle mass was estimated using a prediction model with cut-off points validated for the Chilean population. Physical performance was determined by 3 m walking speed or five chair-stands or time up go test (TUG). Mortality data were obtained from death certificates of the National Civil Registry. Life tables for survival data, Kaplan Meier estimations, and Cox regression were calculated. RESULTS: The prevalence of sarcopenia was 20.2% (95% CI:18.6% to 21.9%) and similar in both sexes; pre-sarcopenia was identified in 20.4% (95% CI:18.8% to 22.1%) of the sample. Kaplan Meier survival estimates demonstrated lower survival rates for the people with sarcopenia and pre-sarcopenia (Log rank test for equality of survivor functions: p<0.0001). A dose-response was observed in the survival rates according to the stages of sarcopenia, showing the lowest survival rates for the people with severe sarcopenia, followed by older adults with sarcopenia, pre-sarcopenia, and without sarcopenia (Log rank test for equality of survivor functions: p<0.0001). After adjusting for age, sex, nutritional status, and number of chronic diseases, hazard ratios for death showed higher risk for subjects with sarcopenia (HR=1.47, 95% CI:1.17-1.83) and pre-sarcopenia (HR=1.35, 95% CI:1.03-1.78) in comparison with people without sarcopenia. CONCLUSION: The results confirm a dose-response increase in the risk of all-cause death in older adults with sarcopenia and pre-sarcopenia compared to non-sarcopenic individuals.
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Causas de Morte , Mortalidade/tendências , Sarcopenia/fisiopatologia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Chile/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Avaliação Geriátrica/métodos , Força da Mão , Humanos , Vida Independente , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Músculo Esquelético/fisiopatologia , Desempenho Físico Funcional , Prevalência , Modelos de Riscos ProporcionaisRESUMO
The effect of employing collars impregnated with deltamethrin 4% (DM4) to control canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) was evaluated. as were the individual factors associated with this infection. A cohort study that included household dogs was conducted between 2002 and 2006. The presence of pathognomonic signals, peridomiciliary sleep habits and breed were the main factors associated with the infection. The use of DM4 collars contributed to the reduction of CVL with an effectiveness of 66%, and the dogs' survival rate was greater than 90% at 50 months. In conclusion, the adoption of DM4 collars reduced the number of euthanized canines and in the incidence of CVL, and this reduction was sustained for one year after discontinuing the use of the collar.
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PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to assess clinical characteristics and risk factors for mortality of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from Mexico, given that it currently is in active community transmission. METHODS: Multivariate logistic regression model and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were fitted to study odds of death of characteristics and comorbidities in patients with COVID-19 in Mexico. RESULTS: Age, sex, and the most frequent comorbidities diabetes, obesity, and hypertension were significantly associated to the risk of death by COVID-19 (P < .0001). Smoking habit was not identified as a risk factor for death. Less-frequent comorbidities such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, and patients with immunosuppressed conditions also showed a significant risk for death (P < .0001). Hospitalized patients and those with pneumonia had serious risks for mortality (P < .0001), and more attention to specific conditions might be considered during clinical admission. CONCLUSIONS: A more vulnerable positive patient is depicted by a male patient, older than 41 years, which increases their risk with more prevalent comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Some implications on outcomes are discussed.
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Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Diabetes Mellitus/mortalidade , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Asma/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , COVID-19 , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Comorbidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Humanos , Hospedeiro Imunocomprometido , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , México/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/epidemiologia , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Fatores Sexuais , Fumar/epidemiologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Serum uric acid (UA) concentrations are associated with physical capacity and muscle strength. In cancer patients, this relationship may influence the prognosis and survival. However, studies are controversial and require further research. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate if there is an association between the serum UA concentrations with handgrip strength (HGS), lean body mass (LBM) and survival probability in gastrointestinal tract cancer patients. METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study enrolled patients of both genders and over 18 years old. All data was collected from medical records after an initial consultation with a dietitian. UA concentrations were dichotomized using the sample mean values, high ≥4.17 mg/dL and low <4.17 mg/dL. RESULTS: From the 101 patients, 46 were women and 55 men. Those with high UA also included individuals with a history of smoking (p = 0.004), greater HGS (p = 0.008), greater LBM (p = 0.026) and a greater total caloric intake (p = 0.028). In the logistic regression analysis, no association was found between UA and HGS (OR: 1.03 95% CI: 0.96-1.10, p = 0.337) and LBM (OR: 1.03 95% CI: 0.96-1.11, p = 0.301) after adjusting for gender, whether or not the patient smokes, and total caloric intake. Further, survival probability did not change among the high and low UA concentrations. CONCLUSION: In gastrointestinal tract cancer patients, serum UA concentrations were not linked to muscle strength, lean mass nor survival.
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Neoplasias Gastrointestinais , Ácido Úrico , Adolescente , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Força da Mão , Humanos , Masculino , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
The measurement of fitness in wild populations is a challenging task, and a number of proxies have been proposed with different degrees of success. Developmental instability/stability (DI) is an organismal property associated with variance in bilateral asymmetry (fluctuating asymmetry-FA) and a correlated effect on fitness. This study provides evidence to corroborate the hypothesis that asymmetry partly reflects DI and is correlated with a reduction in fitness measured by survival and reproduction in bats. We studied two colonies of the bat Carollia perspicillata in southeastern Brazil over 5 years, marking and recapturing individuals. Gaussian mixture models for signed Forearm Asymmetry (ForA) distribution indicated that ~20% of asymmetry variation was due to DI heterogeneity among individuals. ForA, body condition (Scaled Mass Index-SMI) and Forearm Length (ForL) were used as predictors of survival probability in Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Asymmetry was negatively associated with survival, whereas SMI and ForL were positively associated. The male C. perspicillata defend sites within the roost that are favoured by female harems, but there are mating opportunities for bachelor males, leading to both territorial disputes and sperm competition. As predicted by sexual selection, ForA was negatively associated with relative Testicle Length, a measure of reproductive potential. In females, ForA was negatively associated with the probability of two pregnancies (as opposed to one) in a given breeding season. The effect magnitudes and directions of associations suggest that asymmetry, even though not perfectly reflecting DI variation, is a useful predictor for fitness components in C. perspicillata.