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Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

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Species distribution modeling helps understand how environmental factors influence species distribution, creating profiles to predict presence in unexplored areas and assess ecological impacts. This study examined the habitat use and population ecology of the Chilean dolphin in Seno Skyring, Chilean Patagonia. We used three models-random forest (RF), generalized linear model (GLM), and artificial neural network (ANN)-to predict dolphin distribution based on environmental and biotic data like water temperature, salinity, and fish farm density. Our research has determined that the RF model is the most precise tool for predicting the habitat preferences of Chilean dolphins. The results indicate that these dolphins are primarily located within six kilometers of the coast, strongly correlating with areas featuring numerous fish farms, sheltered waters close to the shore with river inputs, and shallow productive zones. This suggests a potential association between dolphin presence and fish-farming activities. These findings can guide targeted conservation measures, such as regulating fish-farming practices and protecting vital coastal areas to improve the survival prospects of the Chilean dolphin. Given the extensive fish-farming industry in Chile, this research highlights the need for greater knowledge and comprehensive conservation efforts to ensure the species' long-term survival. By understanding and mitigating the impacts of fish farming and other human activities, we can better protect the habitat and well-being of Chilean dolphins.

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Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5-8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.

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The distribution of a species reflects its ecological adaptability and evolutionary history, which is shaped by the environment and represents a dynamic area subject to anthropogenic environmental change. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to construct ecological niche models for four thrush species within the Turdus genus; T. amaurochalinus, T. chiguanco, T. falcklandii and T. rufiventris. These models were used to predict the potential geographic distributions of these species that are expanding their ranges in South America. Using occurrence records, we estimated currently occupied areas for each species. We also identified suitable habitats and projected possible areas to be colonized by the four species at continental scale. Temperature annual range had the highest influence for T. falcklandii, while human modification was the main variable explaining the distribution of the other three species. The potential distribution area ranged from 2.5 million km2 for T. falcklandii to nearly seven million km2 for T. amaurochalinus. Large proportions of suitable area remain unoccupied by all four species, being 50% for T. amaurochalinus and T. rufiventris, and about 70% for T. chiguanco and T. falcklandii. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat loss and ecosystem transformation, lead to non-random species extinction and biotic homogenization, highlighting the importance of predictive models as valuable tools for informing mitigation policies and conservation strategies. Thrushes are progressively expanding their ranges, and the colonization of new habitats could bring new challenges.

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The impact of climate change on the distribution of native species in the Neotropics remains uncertain for most species. Prosthechea mariae is an endemic epiphytic orchid in Mexico, categorized as threatened. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of climate change on the natural distribution of P. mariae and the capacity of protected areas (PAs) to safeguard optimal environmental conditions for the species in the future. Historical records were obtained from herbaria collections and through field surveys. We utilized climate variables from WorldClim for the baseline scenario and for the 2050 period, using the general circulation models CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 (RCP 4.5). Three sets of climate data were created for the distribution models, and multiple models were evaluated using the kuenm package. We found that the species is restricted to the eastern region of the country. The projections of future scenarios predict not only a substantial reduction in habitat but also an increase in habitat fragmentation. Ten PAs were found within the current distribution area of the species; in the future, the species could lose between 36% and 48% of its available habitat within these PAs. The results allowed for the identification of locations where climate change will have the most severe effects, and proposals for long-term conservation are addressed.

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Driven by climate change, tropical cyclones (TCs) are predicted to change in intensity and frequency through time. Given these forecasted changes, developing an understanding of how TCs impact insular wildlife is of heightened importance. Previous work has shown that extreme weather events may shape species distributions more strongly than climatic averages; however, given the coarse spatial and temporal scales at which TC data are often reported, the influence of TCs on species distributions has yet to be explored. Using TC data from the National Hurricane Center, we developed spatially and temporally explicit species distribution models (SDMs) to examine the role of TCs in shaping present-day distributions of Puerto Rico's 10 Anolis lizard species. We created six predictor variables to represent the intensity and frequency of TCs. For each occurrence of a species, we calculated these variables for TCs that came within 500 km of the center of Puerto Rico and occurred within the 1-year window prior to when that occurrence was recorded. We also included predictor variables related to landcover, climate, topography, canopy cover and geology. We used random forests to assess model performance and variable importance in models with and without TC variables. We found that the inclusion of TC variables improved model performance for the majority of Puerto Rico's 10 anole species. The magnitude of the improvement varied by species, with generalist species that occur throughout the island experiencing the greatest improvements in model performance. Range-restricted species experienced small, almost negligible, improvements but also had more predictive models both with and without the inclusion of TC variables compared to generalist species. Our findings suggest that incorporating data on TCs into SDMs may be important for modeling insular species that are prone to experiencing these types of extreme weather events.

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Climate change is expected to impact both the population structure and geographic distribution of plants. Species distribution models are widely used to assess range shifts and the vulnerability of plants to climate change. Despite the abundance of modeling studies, little is known about how existing populations respond to climate change. We investigated the demographic structure and vulnerability to climate change in Anemone moorei, a sub-shrub with a highly restricted distribution in a biodiversity hotspot. We improved the distribution knowledge through intensive field work. We conducted a census of stem length as a proxy for age for all known populations. We used ensemble forecasting to project distributions considering 10 future climate scenarios and developed a novel climate change vulnerability index for the species' distribution. We found that the mean stem length decreases and the proportion of young plants increases, while the size of fruiting plants decreases as A. moorei faces greater climate change vulnerability. We interpret these results as evidence for the onset of recent adaptation to climate change, consisting of reduced adult longevity and an earlier onset of reproduction. As a result of these changes, the proportion of juveniles in the population increases.

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Hydropower plants represent one of the greatest threats for freshwater fish by fragmenting the habitat and avoiding the species dispersal. This type of dispersal barrier is often disregarded when predicting freshwater species distribution due to the complexity in inserting the species dispersal routes, and thus the barriers, into the models. Here, we evaluate the impact of including hydroelectric dams into species distribution models through asymmetrical dispersal predictors on the predicted geographic distribution of freshwater fish species. For this, we used asymmetrical dispersal (i.e., AEM) as predictors for modeling the distribution of 29 native fish species of Tocantins-Araguaia River basin. After that, we included the hydropower power plant (HPP) location into the asymmetrical binary matrix for the AEM construction by removing the connections where the HPP is located, representing the downstream disconnection a dam causes in the fish species dispersal route. Besides having higher predicted accuracy, the models using the HPP information generated more realistic predictions, avoiding overpredictions to areas suitable but limited to the species dispersal due to an anthropic barrier. Furthermore, the predictions including HPPs showed higher loss of species richness and nestedness (i.e., loss of species instead of replacement), especially for the southeastern area which concentrates most planned and built HPPs. Therefore, using dispersal constraints in species distribution models increases the reliability of the predictions by avoiding overpredictions based on premise of complete access by the species to any area that is climatically suitable regardless of dispersal barriers or capacity. In conclusion, in this study, we use a novel method of including dispersal constraints into distribution models through a priori insertion of their location within the asymmetrical dispersal predictors, avoiding a posteriori adjustment of the predicted distribution.

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Genera and species of Elmidae (riffle beetles) are sensitive to water pollution; however, in tropical freshwater ecosystems, their requirements regarding environmental factors need to be investigated. Species distribution models (SDMs) were established for five elmid genera in the Paute river basin (southern Ecuador) using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm considering environmental variables, i.e., meteorology, land use, hydrology, and topography. Each RF-based model was trained and optimised using cross-validation. Environmental variables that explained most of the Elmidae spatial variability were land use (i.e., riparian vegetation alteration and presence/absence of canopy), precipitation, and topography, mainly elevation and slope. The highest probability of occurrence for elmids genera was predicted in streams located within well-preserved zones. Moreover, specific ecological niches were spatially predicted for each genus. Macrelmis was predicted in the lower and forested areas, with high precipitation levels, towards the Amazon basin. Austrelmis was predicted to be in the upper parts of the basin, i.e., páramo ecosystems, with an excellent level of conservation of their riparian ecosystems. Austrolimnius and Heterelmis were also predicted in the upper parts of the basin but in more widespread elevation ranges, in the Heterelmis case, and even in some areas with a medium level of anthropisation. Neoelmis was predicted to be in the mid-region of the study basin in high altitudinal streams with a high degree of meandering. The main findings of this research are likely to contribute significantly to local conservation and restoration efforts being implemented in the study basin and could be extrapolated to similar eco-hydrological systems.

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Introduction: Forestry in many parts of the world depends on exotic species, making this industry a source of invasions in some countries. Among others, plantations of the genus Pinus, Eucalyptus, Acacia, Populus, and Pseudotsuga underpin the forestry industry and are a vital component of many countries economies. Among woody plants, the cosmopolitan genus Acacia includes some of the most commonly planted trees worldwide. In order to prevent, manage and control invasive plant species, one of the most used tools is species distribution models. The output of these models can also be used to obtain information about population characteristics, such as spatial abundance patterns or species performance. Although ecological theory suggests a direct link between fitness and suitability, this link is often absent. The reasons behind the lack of this relationship are multiple. Chile is one of the countries where Acacia species, in particular, A. dealbata and A. melanoxylon, have become invaders. Methods: Here, we used climatic and edaphic variables to predict thepotentially suitable habitats for A. dealbata and A. melanoxylon in continental Chile and evaluate if the suitability indices obtained from these models are associated with the observed performance of the trees along the country. Results: Our models show that variable importance showed significant similarities between the variables that characterize each species' niche. However, despite the high accuracy of our models, we did not observe an association between suitability and tree growth. Discussion: This disconnection between suitability and performance can result from multiple causes, from structural limitations, like the lack of biotic interactions in the models, to methodological issues, like the usefulness of the performance metric used. Whatever the scenario, our results suggest that plans to control invasive species should be cautious in assuming this relationship in their design and consider other indicators such as species establishment success.

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The potential benefits of incorporating biotic, as well as abiotic, predictors in niche and species distribution models (SDMs), as well as how to achieve this, is still debated, with their interpretability and explanatory potential being particularly questioned. It is therefore important to stress test modelling methodologies that include biotic factors against use cases where there is ample knowledge of the potential biotic component of the niche. Relatively well studied and important vector-borne diseases offer just such an opportunity, where knowledge of the agents involved in the transmission cycle -vectors and hosts- can serve to calibrate and test the niche model and corresponding SDM. Here, we study the contributions of biotic -14 vectors, 459 potential hosts- and abiotic -258 climatic categories- predictors to the explanatory and predictive features of the niche and corresponding SDM for the etiological agent of Chagas disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, in Mexico. Using an established spatial data mining technique, we generate biotic, abiotic and biotic+abiotic niche and SDM models. We test our models by comparing predictions of the most important probable hosts of Chagas disease with a previously published list of confirmed hosts. We quantify, compare, and contrast the individual and total contributions of predictors to the niche and distribution of Chagas disease in Mexico. We assess the relative predictive potential of these variables to model performance, showing that models that include relevant biotic niche variables lead to more predictive, more ecologically realistic SDMs. Our research illustrates a useful general procedure for identifying and ranking potential biotic interactions and for assessing the relative importance of biotic and abiotic predictors. We conclude that the inclusion of both abiotic and biotic predictors in SDMs not only provides more predictive and accurate models but also models that are more understandable and explainable from an ecological niche perspective.

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The topographic gradients of the Tropical Andes may have triggered species divergence by different mechanisms. Topography separates species' geographical ranges and offers climatic heterogeneity, which could potentially foster local adaptation to specific climatic conditions and result in narrowly distributed endemic species. Such a pattern is found in the Andean centered palm genus Aiphanes. To test the extent to which geographic barriers and climatic heterogeneity can explain distribution patterns in Aiphanes, we sampled 34 out of 36 currently recognized species in that genus and sequenced them by Sanger sequencing and/or sequence target capture sequencing. We generated Bayesian, likelihood, and species-tree phylogenies, with which we explored climatic trait evolution from current climatic occupation. We also estimated species distribution models to test the relative roles of geographical and climatic divergence in their evolution. We found that Aiphanes originated in the Miocene in Andean environments and possibly in mid-elevation habitats. Diversification is related to the occupation of the adjacent high and low elevation habitats tracking high annual precipitation and low precipitation seasonality (moist habitats). Different species in different clades repeatedly occupy all the different temperatures offered by the elevation gradient from 0 to 3,000 m in different geographically isolated areas. A pattern of conserved adaptation to moist environments is consistent among the clades. Our results stress the evolutionary roles of niche truncation of wide thermal tolerance by physical range fragmentation, coupled with water-related niche conservatism, to colonize the topographic gradient.

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The IUCN has listed the long-whiskered owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) as vulnerable due to the presence of few geographic records, its restricted range, and anthropogenic threats. Its natural history and ecology are largely unknown, and its distribution is widely debated; therefore, there is an urgent need for the real-time conservation of X. loweryi. In this study, 66 geo-referenced records of X. loweryi, 18 environmental variables, and the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) have been used to predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of X. loweryi in the Amazonas and San Martin regions of northwestern Peru. In fact, under current conditions, areas of "high", "moderate", and "low" potential habitat suitability cover 0.16% (140.85 km2), 0.46% (416.88 km2), and 1.16% (1048.79 km2) of the study area, respectively. Moreover, under future conditions, the "high", "moderate", and "low" probability areas present profits and losses in terms of habitat suitability. Based on the environmental variables, this species mostly inhabits areas with a forest fraction with presence of trees with an emergent tree canopy of ~10-30 metres and depends on Yunga montane forest habitats with high humidity but it is not dependent on bare cover area, crops, or grasslands. Nevertheless, most of the current and future distribution areas are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas and San Martin. Additionally, the combination of climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to further losses of this species habitat. Therefore, from the management point of view, corrective and preventive actions will help to preserve this species over time.

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The leading causes of the worldwide decline in biodiversity are global warming, allied with natural habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we propose an analysis of the synergistic effects of these two factors in 63 species of Amazonian lizards. We predicted that the high-climatic suitability areas of species would be significantly impacted by different deforestation scenarios and the resultant landscape structure and considered that forest-dwelling species would be especially susceptible to deforestation scenarios. We also pointed out species threatened by both drivers and suggested critical areas for their future conservation. According to our results, most species will face future reductions in suitable areas for their occurrence according to five different patterns, two of which represent significant risks for 15 species. Some of these species already deal with severe habitat loss and fragmentation of their current distribution ranges, whereas others will suffer a considerable area reduction related to future range shifts. We emphasize the importance of protected areas (PAs), especially indigenous lands, and the need to plan combined strategies involving PAs' maintenance and possible implementation of ecological corridors. Finally, we highlight eight species of thermoconformer lizards that constitute present and future conservation concerns related to the combined effects of climate change and habitat loss and that should be carefully evaluated in extinction risk assessments.

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Knowing the distribution of venomous snakes of medical importance is essential to identify areas at risk for snakebites. Thus, we used an integrative approach based on the application of geographic distribution data of venomous snakes, species distribution modeling (SDM), spatial organization of snakebites, and information on human population density for mapping the potential distribution of snakes and identifying areas at risk of snakebites in the state of Maranhão (mid-northern Brazil). From a compiled database of venomous snake records deposited in biological collections and the literature, we predict the potential distribution of venomous snakes in Maranhão, a state whose diversity and geographic distribution of venomous snake species are poorly known. With this, we constructed potential distribution maps for each venomous snake species with at least one occurrence record within state boundaries, as well as generalized maps by family (Viperidae and Elapidae) and the total number of venomous snakes in Maranhão State. We also obtained data on the number of snakebites recorded in each municipality of Maranhão over a decade (2009-2019) and we ran a Generalized Linear Model to test for relationships between the number of venomous snakebites, the area of occurrence of snakes, and human population density. We obtained 1046 records of venomous snake species for Maranhão, represented by 17 viperid and elapid species. Most of the records were from Viperidae (mostly Bothrops atrox and B. marajoensis) and were concentrated mainly in the Amazon of the northern portion of the state. The models showed accurate predictive performance for all modeled species. The entire area of Maranhão exhibits environmental conditions for the occurrence of venomous snakes, with higher suitability indices in the northern region, in the Amazon rainforest. The number of snakebites was positively correlated with the interaction between high-risk areas (i.e., greater distribution of venomous snakes) and human population density. Our study is a pioneer in using species distribution modeling in mid-northern Brazil to address the scarcity of data on snakebite-causing species, directly contributing to the theme of neglected tropical diseases of the World Health Organization.

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To understand the factors that limit invasive expansion in alien species, it is critical to predict potential zones of colonization. Climatic niche can be an important way to predict the potential distribution of alien species. This correlation between niche and geographic distribution is called Hutchinson's duality. A combination of global and regional niches allows four invasive stages to be identified: quasi-equilibrium, local adaptation, colonization and sink stage. We studied the invasive stages of six alien leguminous species either in the niche or the geographical space. In five of the six species, a higher proportion of populations were in the quasi-equilibrium stage. Notably, Acacia species had the highest proportion of populations in local adaptation. This picture changed dramatically when we projected the climatic niche in the geographic space: in all species the colonization stage had the highest proportional projected area, ranging from 50 to 90%. Our results are consistent with Hutchinson's duality, which predicts that small areas in the niche space can be translated onto large areas of the geographic space. Although the colonization stage accounted for a low proportion of occurrences, in all species, the models predicted the largest areas for this stage. This study complements invasive stages, projecting them in geographic space.

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SignificanceTourism accounts for roughly 10% of global gross domestic product, with nature-based tourism its fastest-growing sector in the past 10 years. Nature-based tourism can theoretically contribute to local and sustainable development by creating attractive livelihoods that support biodiversity conservation, but whether tourists prefer to visit more biodiverse destinations is poorly understood. We examine this question in Costa Rica and find that more biodiverse places tend indeed to attract more tourists, especially where there is infrastructure that makes these places more accessible. Safeguarding terrestrial biodiversity is critical to preserving the substantial economic benefits that countries derive from tourism. Investments in both biodiversity conservation and infrastructure are needed to allow biodiverse countries to rely on tourism for their sustainable development.

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Degradation, fragmentation, and loss of tropical forests has exponentially increased in the last decades leading to unprecedented rates of species extinctions and loss of ecosystems functions and services. Forest restoration is key to recover ecosystems health and achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals. However, restoring forests at the landscape scale presents many challenges, since it requires balancing conservation goals and economic development. In this study, we used a spatial planning tool (Marxan) to identify priority areas for restoration satisfying multiple objectives across a biological corridor in Costa Rica. Biological corridors are critical conservation instruments promoting forest connectivity while acknowledging human presence. Increasing forest connectivity requires restoration initiatives that will likely conflict with other land uses, some of them of high national economic importance. Our restoration plan sought to maximize the provision of forest-related services (i.e., seed dispersal, tourism and carbon storage) while minimizing the impact on current land uses and thus avoiding potential conflicts. We quantified seed dispersal and tourism services (birdwatching potential) using species distribution models. We used the carbon sequestration model of InVEST to quantify carbon storage potential. We tested different restoration scenarios that differed in whether land opportunity costs of current uses were considered or not when identifying potential restoration areas, or how these costs were estimated. We showed how a landscape-scale forest restoration plan accounting for only forest connectivity and ecosystem service provision capacity can greatly differ from a plan that considers the potential impacts on local livelihoods. Spatial planning tools can assist at designing cost-effective landscape-scale forest restoration plans, identifying priority areas where forest restoration can maximize ecosystem provision and increase forest connectivity. Special care must be paid to the use of adequate estimates of opportunity cost, to avoid potential conflicts between restoration goals and other legitimate land uses.

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Non-native (invasive) species offer a unique opportunity to study the geographical distribution and range limits of species, wherein the evolutionary change driven by interspecific interactions between native and non-native closely related species is a key component. The red-eared slider turtle, Trachemys scripta elegans (TSE), has been introduced and successfully established worldwide. It can coexist with its native congeners T. cataspila, T. venusta and T. taylori in Mexico. We performed comprehensive fieldwork, executed a battery of genetic analyses and applied a novel species distribution modelling approach to evaluate their historical lineage relationships and contemporary population genetic patterns. Our findings support the historical common ancestry between native TSE and non-native (TSEalien ), while also highlighting the genetic differentiation of the exotic lineage. Genetic patterns are associated with their range size/endemism gradient; the microendemic T. taylori showed significant reduced genetic diversity and high differentiation, whereas TSEalien showed the highest diversity and signals of population size expansion. Counter to our expectations, lower naturally occurring distribution overlap and little admixture patterns were found between TSE and its congeners, exhibiting reduced gene flow and clear genetic separation across neighbouring species despite having zones of contact. We demonstrate that these native Trachemys species have distinct climatic niche suitability, probably preventing establishment of and displacement by the TSEalien . Moreover, we found major niche overlap between TSEalien and native species worldwide, supporting our prediction that sites with closer ecological optima to the invasive species have higher establishment risk than those that are closer to the niche-centre of the native species.

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Many wetlands around the world that occur at the base of watersheds are under threat from land-use change, hydrological alteration, nutrient pollution, and invasive species. A relevant measure of whether the ecological character of these ecosystems has changed is the species diversity of wetland-dependent waterbirds, especially those of conservation value. Here, we evaluate the potential mechanisms controlling variability over time and space in avian species diversity of the wetlands in the Palo Verde National Park, a Ramsar Site of international importance in Costa Rica. To do so, we assessed the relative importance of several key wetland condition metrics (i.e., surface water depth, wetland extent, and vegetation greenness), and temporal fluctuations in these metrics, in predicting the abundance of five waterbirds of high conservation value as well as overall waterbird diversity over a 9-yr period. Generalized additive models revealed that mean NDVI, an indicator of vegetation greenness, combined with a metric used to evaluate temporal fluctuations in the wetland extent best predicted four of the five waterbird species of high conservation value as well as overall waterbird species richness and diversity. Black-bellied Whistling-ducks, which account for over one-half of all waterbird individuals, and all waterbird species together were better predicted by including surface water depth along with wetland extent and its fluctuations. Our calibrated species distribution model confidently quantified monthly averages of the predicted total waterbird abundances in seven of the 10 sub-wetlands making up the Ramsar Site and confirmed that the biophysical diversity of this entire wetland system is important to supporting waterbird populations both as a seasonal refuge and more permanently. This work further suggests that optimizing the timing and location of ongoing efforts to reduce invasive vegetation cover may be key to avian conservation by increasing waterbird habitat.

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