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Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

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Species distribution modeling helps understand how environmental factors influence species distribution, creating profiles to predict presence in unexplored areas and assess ecological impacts. This study examined the habitat use and population ecology of the Chilean dolphin in Seno Skyring, Chilean Patagonia. We used three models-random forest (RF), generalized linear model (GLM), and artificial neural network (ANN)-to predict dolphin distribution based on environmental and biotic data like water temperature, salinity, and fish farm density. Our research has determined that the RF model is the most precise tool for predicting the habitat preferences of Chilean dolphins. The results indicate that these dolphins are primarily located within six kilometers of the coast, strongly correlating with areas featuring numerous fish farms, sheltered waters close to the shore with river inputs, and shallow productive zones. This suggests a potential association between dolphin presence and fish-farming activities. These findings can guide targeted conservation measures, such as regulating fish-farming practices and protecting vital coastal areas to improve the survival prospects of the Chilean dolphin. Given the extensive fish-farming industry in Chile, this research highlights the need for greater knowledge and comprehensive conservation efforts to ensure the species' long-term survival. By understanding and mitigating the impacts of fish farming and other human activities, we can better protect the habitat and well-being of Chilean dolphins.

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Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5-8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.

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The distribution of a species reflects its ecological adaptability and evolutionary history, which is shaped by the environment and represents a dynamic area subject to anthropogenic environmental change. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to construct ecological niche models for four thrush species within the Turdus genus; T. amaurochalinus, T. chiguanco, T. falcklandii and T. rufiventris. These models were used to predict the potential geographic distributions of these species that are expanding their ranges in South America. Using occurrence records, we estimated currently occupied areas for each species. We also identified suitable habitats and projected possible areas to be colonized by the four species at continental scale. Temperature annual range had the highest influence for T. falcklandii, while human modification was the main variable explaining the distribution of the other three species. The potential distribution area ranged from 2.5 million km2 for T. falcklandii to nearly seven million km2 for T. amaurochalinus. Large proportions of suitable area remain unoccupied by all four species, being 50% for T. amaurochalinus and T. rufiventris, and about 70% for T. chiguanco and T. falcklandii. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat loss and ecosystem transformation, lead to non-random species extinction and biotic homogenization, highlighting the importance of predictive models as valuable tools for informing mitigation policies and conservation strategies. Thrushes are progressively expanding their ranges, and the colonization of new habitats could bring new challenges.

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Biotic and abiotic factors play a crucial role in determining the distribution of species. These factors dictate the conditions that must be met for a species to thrive in a particular area. Sister species that present some degree of niche overlap can shed light on how they are distributed and coexist in their environment. This study aims to investigate the geographical distribution and ecological niche of the sister species of snake-necked turtles Hydromedusa maximiliani and H. tectifera. By analyzing their niche overlap, we aim to obtain a better understanding of how these two species coexist and which variables are determining their occurences. We applied species distribution modeling and compared the niches using the niche equivalence and similarity tests. Our findings show that the distribution of H. maximiliani is most influenced by temperature seasonality and isothermality, while H. tectifera is most affected by the temperature seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter and mean diurnal range. In addition, our results suggest that the niche expressed by H. maximiliani retained ecological characteristics that can accurately predict the H. tectifera distribution, but the inverse is not true. In this sense, differences are not solely due to the geographic availability of environmental conditions but can reflect niche restrictions, such as competition.

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The impact of climate change on the distribution of native species in the Neotropics remains uncertain for most species. Prosthechea mariae is an endemic epiphytic orchid in Mexico, categorized as threatened. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of climate change on the natural distribution of P. mariae and the capacity of protected areas (PAs) to safeguard optimal environmental conditions for the species in the future. Historical records were obtained from herbaria collections and through field surveys. We utilized climate variables from WorldClim for the baseline scenario and for the 2050 period, using the general circulation models CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 (RCP 4.5). Three sets of climate data were created for the distribution models, and multiple models were evaluated using the kuenm package. We found that the species is restricted to the eastern region of the country. The projections of future scenarios predict not only a substantial reduction in habitat but also an increase in habitat fragmentation. Ten PAs were found within the current distribution area of the species; in the future, the species could lose between 36% and 48% of its available habitat within these PAs. The results allowed for the identification of locations where climate change will have the most severe effects, and proposals for long-term conservation are addressed.

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Camera traps became the main observational method of a myriad of species over large areas. Data sets from camera traps can be used to describe the patterns and monitor the occupancy, abundance, and richness of wildlife, essential information for conservation in times of rapid climate and land-cover changes. Habitat loss and poaching are responsible for historical population losses of mammals in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot, especially for medium to large-sized species. Here we present a data set from camera trap surveys of medium to large-sized native mammals (>1 kg) across the Atlantic Forest. We compiled data from 5380 ground-level camera trap deployments in 3046 locations, from 2004 to 2020, resulting in 43,068 records of 58 species. These data add to existing data sets of mammals in the Atlantic Forest by including dates of camera operation needed for analyses dealing with imperfect detection. We also included, when available, information on important predictors of detection, namely the camera brand and model, use of bait, and obstruction of camera viewshed that can be measured from example pictures at each camera location. Besides its application in studies on the patterns and mechanisms behind occupancy, relative abundance, richness, and detection, the data set presented here can be used to study species' daily activity patterns, activity levels, and spatiotemporal interactions between species. Moreover, data can be used combined with other data sources in the multiple and expanding uses of integrated population modeling. An R script is available to view summaries of the data set. We expect that this data set will be used to advance the knowledge of mammal assemblages and to inform evidence-based solutions for the conservation of the Atlantic Forest. The data are not copyright restricted; please cite this paper when using the data.

As armadilhas fotográficas tornaram­se o principal método de observação de muitas espécies em grandes áreas. Os dados obtidos com armadilhas fotográficas podem ser usados para descrever os padrões e monitorar a ocupação, abundância e riqueza da vida selvagem, informação essencial para a conservação em tempos de rápidas mudanças climáticas e de cobertura do solo. A perda de habitat e a caça furtiva são responsáveis pelas perdas populacionais históricas de mamíferos no hotspot de biodiversidade da Mata Atlântica, especialmente para espécies de médio e grande porte. Aqui apresentamos um conjunto de dados de levantamentos com armadilhas fotográficas de mamíferos de médio e grande porte (>1 kg) em toda a Mata Atlântica. Compilamos dados de 5.380 armadilhas fotográficas instaladas no nível do chão em 3.046 locais, de 2004 a 2020, resultando em 43.068 registros de 58 espécies. Esses dados acrescentam aos conjuntos de dados existentes de mamíferos na Mata Atlântica por incluir as datas de operação das câmeras, que são necessárias para análises que lidam com detecção imperfeita. Também incluímos, quando disponíveis, informações sobre importantes preditores de detecção, como marca e modelo da câmera, uso de isca e obstrução do visor da câmera que pode ser medido a partir de imagens de exemplo em cada local da câmera. Além de estudos sobre os padrões e mecanismos por trás da ocupação, abundância relativa, riqueza e detecção, o conjunto de dados aqui apresentado pode ser usado para estudar os padrões de atividade diária das espécies, nível de atividade e interações espaço­temporais entre as espécies. Além disso, os dados podem ser usados em combinação com outras fontes de dados em diversas análises com modelagem populacional integrada. Um script R está disponível para visualizar um resumo do conjunto de dados. Esperamos que este conjunto de dados seja usado para aumentar o conhecimento sobre as assembleias de mamíferos e usado para informar soluções baseadas em evidências para a conservação da Mata Atlântica. Os dados não são restritos por direitos autorais e, por favor, cite este documento ao usar os dados.

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Driven by climate change, tropical cyclones (TCs) are predicted to change in intensity and frequency through time. Given these forecasted changes, developing an understanding of how TCs impact insular wildlife is of heightened importance. Previous work has shown that extreme weather events may shape species distributions more strongly than climatic averages; however, given the coarse spatial and temporal scales at which TC data are often reported, the influence of TCs on species distributions has yet to be explored. Using TC data from the National Hurricane Center, we developed spatially and temporally explicit species distribution models (SDMs) to examine the role of TCs in shaping present-day distributions of Puerto Rico's 10 Anolis lizard species. We created six predictor variables to represent the intensity and frequency of TCs. For each occurrence of a species, we calculated these variables for TCs that came within 500 km of the center of Puerto Rico and occurred within the 1-year window prior to when that occurrence was recorded. We also included predictor variables related to landcover, climate, topography, canopy cover and geology. We used random forests to assess model performance and variable importance in models with and without TC variables. We found that the inclusion of TC variables improved model performance for the majority of Puerto Rico's 10 anole species. The magnitude of the improvement varied by species, with generalist species that occur throughout the island experiencing the greatest improvements in model performance. Range-restricted species experienced small, almost negligible, improvements but also had more predictive models both with and without the inclusion of TC variables compared to generalist species. Our findings suggest that incorporating data on TCs into SDMs may be important for modeling insular species that are prone to experiencing these types of extreme weather events.

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ABSTRACTHistoplasmosis is an endemic mycosis in North America frequently reported along the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys, although autochthonous cases occur in non-endemic areas. In the United States, the disease is provoked by two genetically distinct clades of Histoplasma capsulatum sensu lato, Histoplasma mississippiense (Nam1) and H. ohiense (Nam2). To bridge the molecular epidemiological gap, we genotyped 93 Histoplasma isolates (62 novel genomes) including clinical, environmental, and veterinarian samples from a broader geographical range by whole-genome sequencing, followed by evolutionary and species niche modelling analyses. We show that histoplasmosis is caused by two major lineages, H. ohiense and H. mississippiense; with sporadic cases caused by H. suramericanum in California and Texas. While H. ohiense is prevalent in eastern states, H. mississipiense was found to be prevalent in the central and western portions of the United States, but also geographically overlapping in some areas suggesting that these species might co-occur. Species Niche Modelling revealed that H. ohiense thrives in places with warmer and drier conditions, while H. mississippiense is endemic to areas with cooler temperatures and more precipitation. In addition, we predicted multiple areas of secondary contact zones where the two species co-occur, potentially facilitating gene exchange and hybridization. This study provides the most comprehensive understanding of the genomic epidemiology of histoplasmosis in the USA and lays a blueprint for the study of invasive fungal diseases.

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BACKGROUND: The sugarcane billbug, Sphenophorus levis Vaurie 1978, is a key soil-dwelling insect pest of sugarcane in Brazil and greatly affects plant development and yield. This insect presents an aggregated distribution pattern in production fields. The reasons for such behavior include intraspecific communication and attractivity due to the fermentation of sugar in stalk residues. During mechanized harvesting, part of the harvested material usually falls in the load transfer sites, becoming a potential source for increasing the infestation. We therefore evaluated whether producing areas near the harvest load transfer sites are more prone to S. levis injury. RESULTS: There are greater chances of finding billbug injury within a radius of 740 m from the harvest load transfer site. Additionally, injured areas are estimated to expand 11.96% each growing season. Our spatiotemporal models support higher injured areas surrounding the harvest load transfer site and show clear and significant signs of increased injury levels compared to the initial growing season surveyed. CONCLUSION: Our results reinforce the importance of harvest transfer sites in the dispersion and propagation of the sugarcane billbug. Based on this knowledge, sugarcane millers and growers can adopt preventive and remedial practices within the loading sites that can potentially contribute to the successful management of this insect pest. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

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As the taxonomic knowledge of cyanobacteria from terrestrial environments increases, it remains important to analyze biodiversity in areas that have been understudied to fully understand global and endemic diversity. This study was completed as part of a larger algal biodiversity study of the soil biocrusts of San Nicholas Island, California, USA. Among the taxa isolated were several new species in three genera (Atlanticothrix, Pycnacronema, and Konicacronema) which were described from, and previously restricted to, Brazil. New taxa are described herein using a polyphasic approach to cyanobacterial taxonomy that considers morphological, molecular, ecological, and biogeographical factors. Morphological data corroborated by molecular analysis including sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, and the associated 16S-23S ITS rRNA region was used to delineate three new species of Atlanticothrix, two species of Pycnacronema, and one species of Konicacronema. The overlap of genera from San Nicolas Island and Brazil suggests that cyanobacterial genera may be widely distributed across global hemispheres, whereas the presence of distinct lineages may indicate that this is not true at the species level. Our data suggest that based upon global wind patterns, cyanobacteria in both Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Americas may have a more recent common ancestor in Northern Africa, but this common ancestry is distant enough that speciation has occurred since transatlantic dispersal.

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Mountains harbor a significant number of the World's biodiversity, both on tropical and temperate regions. Notably, one crucial gap in conservation is the consideration of historical and contemporary patterns influencing differential distribution in small mammal mountain species and how climate change will affect their distribution and survival. The mice Peromyscus mexicanus species group is distributed across mountains in Guatemala-Chiapas and Central America, which experienced significant effects of glacial and interglacial cycles. We determined phylogeographic and demographic patterns of lowlands and highlands mountain lineages, revealing that the radiation of modern P. mexicanus lineages occurred during the Pleistocene (ca. 2.6 mya) along Nuclear Central America. In concert with climatic cycles and the distribution of habitats, lowland and highland lineages showed recent population size increase and decrease, respectively. We also estimated the current and future distribution ranges for six lineages, finding marked area size increase for two lineages for which vegetation type and distribution would facilitate migrating towards higher elevations. Contrastingly, three lineages showed range size decrease; their ecological requirements make them highly susceptible to future habitat loss. Our findings are clear evidence of the negative impacts of future climate change, while our ability to manage and conserve these vulnerable ecosystems and mountain species is contingent on our understanding of the implications of climate change on the distribution, ecology, and genetics of wildlife populations.

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Climate change is expected to impact both the population structure and geographic distribution of plants. Species distribution models are widely used to assess range shifts and the vulnerability of plants to climate change. Despite the abundance of modeling studies, little is known about how existing populations respond to climate change. We investigated the demographic structure and vulnerability to climate change in Anemone moorei, a sub-shrub with a highly restricted distribution in a biodiversity hotspot. We improved the distribution knowledge through intensive field work. We conducted a census of stem length as a proxy for age for all known populations. We used ensemble forecasting to project distributions considering 10 future climate scenarios and developed a novel climate change vulnerability index for the species' distribution. We found that the mean stem length decreases and the proportion of young plants increases, while the size of fruiting plants decreases as A. moorei faces greater climate change vulnerability. We interpret these results as evidence for the onset of recent adaptation to climate change, consisting of reduced adult longevity and an earlier onset of reproduction. As a result of these changes, the proportion of juveniles in the population increases.

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In the present study, we investigated the effect of habitat heterogeneity, elevation gradient, and phylogenetic distance of host species on the abundance and richness of anuran endoparasites, assuming that parasites follow the distribution of their hosts independently of environmental variation. We collected 192 anurans distributed in three altitude ranges: 100-200 m, 400-500 m, and 700-800 m. We performed discriminant principal component analysis to analyze the interrelationships between environmental heterogeneity and the distribution of parasite and host species in the formation of species groups in each altitude range. We estimated the niche width and parasite overlap, using host species as a variable, and assessed whether parasite abundance is more influenced by historical (distance host phylogeny) or ecological effects in each altitude category and overall. Finally, we use network analyses to understand how interactions between parasites and hosts are formed along the altitude gradient. We found 22 parasite species, and the overall prevalence of infection was 74%. In our study, we did not identify environmental (altitude gradients and heterogeneity) or phylogenetic effects acting on the parasite species diversity. Overall, our results suggest that the parasites are distributed following the dispersal of their hosts and are dispersed among most anuran species.

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Climate events compromise ecosystems functioning and services. Marine zooplankton play a key role linking primary producers and higher consumers, in the carbon export to deeper regions, and respond quickly to environmental change. We conducted a systematic review to assess the effects of climate on marine zooplankton diversity. We describe the major findings, uses and limitations raised in the literature from worldwide time series ≥5 years. Thirty-five studies were included and only 6 presented extractable data (i.e., those that could be extracted from images) for the most studied group (i.e., copepods). Responses to climate were conflicting, and studies were mostly restricted to the global north, applied richness, alpha- and beta-diversity equally, and had a large number of unresolved taxonomic identification. Standardized open long-term data would meaningfully help unveiling assemblage reorganization and allow meta-analyses to improve our understanding of the effects of climate change and variability on zooplankton biodiversity.

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The neotropical Apicotermitinae is a common and widespread clade of mostly soil-feeding soldierless termites. With few exceptions, species of this group were originally assigned to the genus Anoplotermes Müller, 1873. The application of internal worker morphology coupled with genetic sequencing has recently shed light on the true diversity of this subfamily. Herein, Anoplotermessusanae Scheffrahn, Carrijo & Castro, sp. nov. and four new species in four new genera are described: Hirsutitermeskanzakii Scheffrahn, Carrijo & Castro, gen. nov. et sp. nov., Krecekitermesdaironi Scheffrahn, Carrijo & Castro, gen. nov. et sp. nov., Mangolditermescurveileum Scheffrahn, Carrijo & Castro, gen. nov. et sp. nov., and Ourissotermesgiblinorum Scheffrahn, Carrijo & Castro, gen. nov. et sp. nov. Worker descriptions are based mainly on worker gut morphology, including the enteric valve, while imagoes were described based on external characters. A Bayesian phylogenetic tree of New World Apicotermitinae was constructed using the complete mitogenome to infer genera relationships and corroborate the taxonomic decisions. Distribution maps and a dichotomic key to the known Neotropical Apicotermitinae genera are provided.

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Non-indigenous species tend to colonize aquaculture installations, especially when they are near international ports. In addition to the local environmental hazard that colonizing non-indigenous species pose, they can also take advantage of local transport opportunities to spread elsewhere. In this study, we examined the risk of the spread of eight invasive fouling species that are found in mussel farms in southern Brazil. We used ensemble niche models based on worldwide occurrences of these species, and environmental variables (ocean temperature and salinity) to predict suitable areas for each species with three algorithms (Maxent, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine). As a proxy for propagule pressure, we used the tonnage transported by container ships from Santa Catarina (the main mariculture region) that travel to other Brazilian ports. We found that ports in the tropical states of Pernambuco, Ceará, and Bahia received the largest tonnage, although far from Santa Catarina and in a different ecoregion. The ascidians Aplidium accarense and Didemnum perlucidum are known from Bahia, with a high risk of invasion in the other states. The bryozoan Watersipora subtorquata also has a high risk of establishment in Pernambuco, while the ascidian Botrylloides giganteus has a medium risk in Bahia. Paraná, a state in the same ecoregion as Santa Catarina is likely to be invaded by all species. A second state in this region, Rio Grande do Sul, is vulnerable to A. accarense, the barnacle Megabalanus coccopoma, and the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. Climate change is changing species latitudinal distributions and most species will gain rather than lose area in near future (by 2050). As an ideal habitat for fouling organisms and invasive species, aquaculture farms can increase propagule pressure and thus the probability that species will expand their distributions, especially if they are close to ports. Therefore, an integrated approach of the risks of both aquaculture and nautical transport equipment present in a region is necessary to better inform decision-making procedures aiming at the expansion or establishment of new aquaculture farms. The risk maps provided will allow authorities and regional stakeholders to prioritize areas of concern for mitigating the present and future spread of fouling species.

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Pilocarpus microphyllus Stapf. ex Wardlew. (Rutaceae) is an endemic and threatened medicinal plant species from tropical Brazil. Popularly known as "jaborandi", it is the unique natural source of pilocarpine, an alkaloid used to medical treat glaucoma and xerostomia. Based on Species Distribution Models (SDMs), we modeled the suitability of P. microphyllus's geographical distribution considering three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two future climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The quantitative analyses carried out using ten different SDM algorithms revealed that precipitation seasonality (Bio15) and precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) were the most important bioclimatic variables. The results evidenced four main key areas of continuous occurrence of the plant spreading diagonally over tropical Brazilian biomes (Amazon, Cerrado and Caatinga). The near-future (2020 to 2040) ensemble projections considering all GCMs and scenarios have indicated negative impacts for the potential loss or significant reduction in suitable habitats for P. microphyllus in the transition region between the Amazon and Cerrado into central and northern Maranhão state, and mainly in the Caatinga biome over the northern Piaui state. On the other hand, positive impacts of the expansion of the plant habitat suitability are projected over forest cover protected areas of the Amazon biome in the southeastern Pará state. Since the jaborandi is of socioeconomic importance for many families in the north/northeast Brazil, it is urgent to implement public policies for conservation and sustainable management, thus mitigating the impacts of global climate change.

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Rhodnius amazonicus has been previously reported in the Brazilian states of Amazonas and Pará, as well as in French Guiana. However, this is the first recorded presence of this species in Amapá, which is situated in the northern region of Brazil. The specimen was collected from a house in the rural area of the municipality of Porto Grande. Other triatomines, such as Panstrongylus geniculatus, Rhodnius pictipes, and Eratyrus mucronatus, were also found in the same locality in different houses. These species are vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, which causes Chagas disease. Therefore, this report may contribute to understanding transmission in the state of Amapá, where new infections and outbreaks of Chagas disease have been recorded.

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Hydropower plants represent one of the greatest threats for freshwater fish by fragmenting the habitat and avoiding the species dispersal. This type of dispersal barrier is often disregarded when predicting freshwater species distribution due to the complexity in inserting the species dispersal routes, and thus the barriers, into the models. Here, we evaluate the impact of including hydroelectric dams into species distribution models through asymmetrical dispersal predictors on the predicted geographic distribution of freshwater fish species. For this, we used asymmetrical dispersal (i.e., AEM) as predictors for modeling the distribution of 29 native fish species of Tocantins-Araguaia River basin. After that, we included the hydropower power plant (HPP) location into the asymmetrical binary matrix for the AEM construction by removing the connections where the HPP is located, representing the downstream disconnection a dam causes in the fish species dispersal route. Besides having higher predicted accuracy, the models using the HPP information generated more realistic predictions, avoiding overpredictions to areas suitable but limited to the species dispersal due to an anthropic barrier. Furthermore, the predictions including HPPs showed higher loss of species richness and nestedness (i.e., loss of species instead of replacement), especially for the southeastern area which concentrates most planned and built HPPs. Therefore, using dispersal constraints in species distribution models increases the reliability of the predictions by avoiding overpredictions based on premise of complete access by the species to any area that is climatically suitable regardless of dispersal barriers or capacity. In conclusion, in this study, we use a novel method of including dispersal constraints into distribution models through a priori insertion of their location within the asymmetrical dispersal predictors, avoiding a posteriori adjustment of the predicted distribution.

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