RESUMO
Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident-more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation-and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.
Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Árvores , Biodiversidade , Brasil , Mudança Climática , FlorestasRESUMO
Microrefugia are important for supporting populations during periods of unfavourable climate change and in facilitating rapid migration as conditions ameliorate. With ongoing anthropogenic climate change, microrefugia could have an important conservation value; however, a simple tool has not been developed and tested to predict which settings are microrefugial. We provide a tool based on terrain ruggedness modelling of individual catchments to predict Andean microrefugia. We tested the predictions using nine Holocene Polylepis pollen records. We used the mid-Holocene dry event, a period of peak aridity for the last 100 000 yr, as an analogue climate scenario for the near future. The results suggest that sites with high terrain rugosity have the greatest chance of sustaining mesic conditions under drier-than-modern climates. Fire is a feature of all catchments; however, an increase in fire is only recorded in settings with low rugosity. Owing to rising temperatures and greater precipitation variability, Andean ecosystems are threatened by increasing moisture stress. Our results suggest that high terrain rugosity helps to create more resilient catchments by trapping moisture through orographic rainfall and providing firebreaks that shelter forest from fire. On this basis, conservation policy should target protection and management of catchments with high terrain rugosity.
Assuntos
Ecossistema , Florestas , Geografia , Sedimentos Geológicos/química , Paleontologia , Peru , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
We aimed to understand the effect of rock outcrops on the growth of Podocarpus lambertii within a microrefuge. Our hypothesis holds that the growth and survival of this species depend on the regional climate decoupling provided by rock outcrops. To test this hypothesis, we characterized the microclimate of (1) surrounding vegetation, (2) rock outcrop corridors, and (3) adjacencies. We assessed population structure by collecting data of specimen stem diameter and height. We also assessed differences between vegetation associated or not with outcrops using satellite imaging. For dendrochronological analyses, we sampled 42 individuals. Tree rings of 31 individuals were dated, and climate-growth relationships were tested. Rock outcrops produce a favorable microclimate by reducing average temperature by 4.9 °C and increasing average air humidity by 12 %. They also reduce the variability of atmospheric temperature by 42 % and air humidity by 20 % supporting a vegetation with higher leaf area index. Within this vegetation, specimen height was strongly constrained by the outcrop height. Although temperature and precipitation modulate this species growth, temperature-induced stress is the key limiting growth factor for this population of P. lambertii. We conclude that this species growth and survival depend on the presence of rock outcrops. These topography elements decouple regional climate in a favorable way for this species growth. However, these benefits are restricted to the areas sheltered by rock outcrops. Although this microrefuge supported P. lambertii growth so far, it is unclear whether this protection would be sufficient to withstand the stress of future climate changes.
Assuntos
Microclima , Traqueófitas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Clima , Fenômenos Geológicos , Caules de Planta/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento Remoto , Estresse Fisiológico , Temperatura , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimentoRESUMO
The role of Pleistocene climate changes in promoting evolutionary diversification in global biota is well documented, but the great majority of data regarding this subject come from North America and Europe, which were greatly affected by glaciation. The effects of Pleistocene changes on cold- and/or dry-adapted species in tropical areas where glaciers were not present remain sparsely investigated. Many such species are restricted to small areas surrounded by unfavourable habitats, which may represent potential interglacial microrefugia. Here, we analysed the phylogeographic structure and diversification history of seven cactus species in the Pilosocereus aurisetus complex that are restricted to rocky areas with high diversity and endemism within the Neotropical savannas of eastern South America. We combined palaeodistributional estimates with standard phylogeographic approaches based on two chloroplast DNA regions (trnT-trnL and trnS-trnG), exon 1 of the nuclear gene PhyC and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci. Our analyses revealed a phylogeographic history marked by multiple levels of distributional fragmentation, isolation leading to allopatric differentiation and secondary contact among divergent lineages within the complex. Diversification and demographic events appear to have been affected by the Quaternary climatic cycles as a result of isolation in multiple patches of xerophytic vegetation. These small patches presently harbouring P. aurisetus populations seem to operate as microrefugia, both at present and during Pleistocene interglacial periods; the role of such microrefugia should be explored and analysed in greater detail.