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Climate change is increasing the proportion of river networks experiencing flow intermittence, which in turn reduces local diversity (i.e., α-diversity) but enhances variation in species composition among sites (i.e., ß-diversity), with potential consequences on ecosystem stability. Indeed, the multiscale theory of stability proposes that regional stability can be attained not only by local processes but also by spatial asynchrony among sites. However, it is still unknown whether and how scale-dependent changes in biodiversity associated with river flow intermittence influence stability across spatial scales. To elucidate this, we here focus on multiple metacommunities of French rivers experiencing contrasting levels of flow intermittence. We clearly show that the relative contribution of spatial asynchrony to regional stability was higher for metacommunities of intermittent than perennial rivers. Surprisingly, spatial asynchrony was mainly linked to asynchronous population dynamics among sites, but not to ß-diversity. This finding was robust for both truly aquatic macroinvertebrates and for taxa that disperse aerially during their adult stages, implying the need to conserve multiple sites across the landscape to attain regional stability in intermittent rivers. By contrast, metacommunities of truly aquatic macroinvertebrates inhabiting perennial rivers were mainly stabilized by local processes. Our study provides novel evidence that metacommunities of perennial and intermittent rivers are stabilized by contrasting processes operating at different spatial scales. We demonstrate that flow intermittence enhances spatial asynchrony among sites, thus resulting in a regional stabilizing effect on intermittent river networks. Considering that climate change is increasing the proportion of intermittent rivers worldwide, our results suggest that managers need to focus on the spatial dynamics of metacommunities more than on local-scale processes to monitor, restore, and conserve freshwater biodiversity.

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Biosphere Reserves (BR) manage large territories with diverse natural covers and land uses to preserve biodiversity, promote local development and preserve ecosystems. This study evaluated how their zoning (buffer and core) and policy timeframes (decree period, management plan period, and land planning period) influence four landscape management outcomes: deforestation, natural cover recovery, and anthropic and natural permanence. For three Mexican BR case studies, land use and cover transitions were calculated and compared to contrafactual sites. Observed rates of land cover change were marginal within all three BR zoning and across their policy timeframe (<0.02 % change rate), suggesting that BR effectively promote the permanence of both natural and anthropic covers. Nevertheless, the predicted probability of uncommon deforestation and recovery outcomes at local levels showed that the effect of a BR over its regulated landscape is not spatiotemporally static, contrasting the effect of individual allocation vs a group or network. Poverty, land tenure, agriculture aptitude and distance to markets adds to this dynamic and is modelled and discussed. This study shows that BR zoning schemes and its regulatory sequence influence the rates of land cover change and the predicted probability of landscape management outcomes across space and time.

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Tropical semiarid regions are naturally prone to environmental damage. Human activity can worsen this situation. To understand how human actions affect the ecosystem, plan land use effectively, and establish targeted management practices, assessing environmental vulnerability is crucial. This study focuses on a sub-basin receiving water transfers from the São Francisco River in Brazil's semiarid region. Here, we map and evaluate how land use and occupation alter natural vulnerability. We also propose zoning strategies to support water resource management and implement sustainable development policies in the region. To achieve this, we conducted an integrated analysis of physical factors (soil types, geology, climate, vegetation, and landforms) and spatial land-use data using geographic information systems (GIS) and map algebra techniques. Map algebra allowed us to combine these various datasets within the GIS environment, enabling the creation of maps that synthesize both natural and environmental vulnerability across the study area. Following analysis of these vulnerability maps, our findings reveal a high level of vulnerability. The areas with high to very high degrees of natural vulnerability coincide with the places that have high slopes, high altitudes, Lithic Neosols, and thick vegetation. Furthermore, the interaction between environmental factors and human activity exacerbates vulnerability. Based on the environmental vulnerability assessment, we defined four environmental management zones. These zones require distinct protection measures and management approaches. As a method to potentially improve the basin's vulnerability scenario, soil conservation measures are recommended. This approach is highly relevant for managing land in tropical semiarid regions and, with adaptations to specific regional factors, can be applied globally.

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Changes to forests due to deforestation, or their replacement by agricultural areas, alter evapotranspiration and the partitioning of available energy. This study investigated seasonal variations in the energy balance and evapotranspiration in landscapes under different levels of anthropogenic intervention in the semi-arid region of Brazil. Micrometeorological data was obtained from September 2020 to October 2022 for three areas of the semi-arid region: preserved Caatinga (CAA, native vegetation), Caatinga under regeneration (REGE) and a deforested area (DEFA). Here, we use the Bowen ratio energy balance method. Measurements were taken of global solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, vapour pressure deficit, rainfall, net radiation, latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, soil heat flux, evapotranspiration, volumetric soil water content and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. Sensible heat flux was the dominant flux in both areas with 66% for preserved Caatinga vegetation, 63% for Caatinga under regeneration and 62% deforested area. The latent heat flux was equivalent to 28% of the net radiation for preserved Caatinga vegetation, Caatinga under regeneration and deforested area. The evapotranspiration in turn responded as a function of water availability, being higher during the rainy seasons, with average values of 1.82 mm day-1 for preserved Caatinga vegetation, 2.26 mm day-1 for Caatinga under regeneration and 1.25 mm day-1 for deforested area. The Bowen ratio presented values > 1 in deforested area, preserved Caatinga vegetation and Caatinga under regeneration. Thus, it can be concluded that the change in land use alters the energy balance components, promoting reductions in available energy and latent and sensible heat fluxes during the rainy-dry transition in the deforested area. In addition, the seasonality of energy fluxes depends on water availability in the environment.

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The expansion of urban areas contributes to the growth of impervious surfaces, leading to increased pollution and altering the configuration, composition, and context of land covers. This study employed machine learning methods (partial least square regressor and the Shapley Additive exPlanations) to explore the intricate relationships between urban expansion, land cover changes, and water quality in a watershed with a park and lake. To address this, we first evaluated the spatio-temporal variation of some physicochemical and microbiological water quality variables, generated yearly land cover maps of the basin adopting several machine learning classifiers, and computed the most suitable landscape metrics that better represent the land cover. The main results highlighted the importance of spatial arrangement and the size of the contributing watershed on water quality. Compact urban forms appeared to mitigate the impact on pollutants. This research provides valuable insights into the intricate relationship between landscape characteristics and water quality dynamics, informing targeted watershed management strategies aimed at mitigating pollution and ensuring the health and resilience of aquatic ecosystems.

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This paper aims to evaluate the driving style effects, through the construction of driving cycles, on the polluting gases, in the context of urban freight transportation. For this, the method used was the construction of cycles through the Vehicle Specific Power (VSP) parameter, which considers instantaneous vehicle and road parameters better to represent driving patterns and freight transportation's environmental impacts. The study was conducted in Fortaleza city, Ceará, Brazil, with a professional driver's group. The road types, land use and traffic light location were considered to analyze and discuss the results. The results show collector roads presented higher speeds than arterial roads, and the use of the land around the road also directly impacted vehicle driving patterns. Regarding CO2 emissions, higher concentrations measured were observed on the arterial roads.

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Changes in land cover directly affect biodiversity. Here, we assessed land-cover change in Cuba in the past 35 years and analyzed how this change may affect the distribution of Omphalea plants and Urania boisduvalii moths. We analyzed the vegetation cover of the Cuban archipelago for 1985 and 2020. We used Google Earth Engine to classify two satellite image compositions into seven cover types: forest and shrubs, mangrove, soil without vegetation cover, wetlands, pine forest, agriculture, and water bodies. We considered four different areas for quantifications of land-cover change: (1) Cuban archipelago, (2) protected areas, (3) areas of potential distribution of Omphalea, and (4) areas of potential distribution of the plant within the protected areas. We found that "forest and shrubs", which is cover type in which Omphalea populations have been reported, has increased significantly in Cuba in the past 35 years, and that most of the gained forest and shrub areas were agricultural land in the past. This same pattern was observed in the areas of potential distribution of Omphalea; whereas almost all cover types were mostly stable inside the protected areas. The transformation of agricultural areas into forest and shrubs could represent an interesting opportunity for biodiversity conservation in Cuba. Other detailed studies about biodiversity composition in areas of forest and shrubs gain would greatly benefit our understanding of the value of such areas for conservation.

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In the last decade, advances in soil bacterial ecology have contributed to increasing agricultural production. Brazil is the world leading agriculture producer and leading soil biodiversity reservoir. Meanwhile, there is still a significant gap in the knowledge regarding the soil microscopic life and its interactions with agricultural practices, and the replacement of natural vegetation by agroecosystems is yet to be unfolded. Through high throughput DNA sequencing, scientists are now exploring the complexity of soil bacterial communities and their relationship with soil and environmental characteristics. This study aimed to investigate the progress of bacterial ecology studies in Brazil over the last 10 years, seeking to understand the effect of the conversion of natural vegetation in agricultural systems on the diversity and structure of the soil microbial communities. We conducted a systematic search for scientific publication databases. Our systematic search has matched 62 scientific articles from three different databases. Most of the studies were placed in southeastern and northern Brazil, with no records of studies about microbial ecology in 17 out of 27 Brazilian states. Out of the 26 studies that examined the effects of replacing natural vegetation with agroecosystems, most authors concluded that changes in soil pH and vegetation cover replacement were the primary drivers of shifts in microbial communities. Understanding the ecology of the bacteria inhabiting Brazilian soils in agroecosystems is paramount for developing more efficient soil management strategies and cleaner agricultural technologies.

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Quantify the impact of meteorological changes on air pollution levels is the aim of numerous recent studies. However, there is still a lack of investigations assessing the influence of land use/activities on the relationship between climate and air quality. In this study, we used a two-stage design to estimate the influence of land use types and activities on the association between weather changes and air pollution (PM2.5, NO2, SO2, O3) over 5572 municipalities in Brazil. To calculate the influence of recent weather change on air pollution concentration for each municipality, we used the "weather penalty" concept. This approach considers differences in linear trend coefficients between two generalized additive models. Then, using quantile regression, we estimated the effect of land use types and activities (8 variables related to transportation, energy generation, and land use) on weather-related increases in ambient air pollution. We found that an increase in PM2.5 was associated to recent weather changes in most municipalities (average increase of 0.07µg/m3per year) and a decrease in NO2 in most municipalities (average decrease of 0.0003 ppb per year). O3 and SO2 had more intense increases associated with weather changes in the North region. Our findings suggest the most robust positive associations between weather penalties on PM2.5 and areas with non-clean energy and oil refineries (average increase of 0.006µg/m3per year and 0.04µg/m3per year, respectively). We also found positive associations between Pasture areas, urban areas, and transportation and the weather penalties of this pollutant. In contrast, forest areas were negatively associated with PM2.5 penalties. We also found that oil refineries, urban areas, and transportation significantly positively influenced weather penalties for SO2 and O3. Overall, the study highlights the importance of considering the influence of land use types and activities on weather-related changes in ambient air pollution.

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The intensive global use of pesticides presents an escalating threat to human health, ecosystems, and water quality. To develop national and local environmental management strategies for mitigating pollution caused by pesticides, it is essential to understand the quantities, timing, and location of their application. This study aims to estimate the spatial distribution of pesticide use in an agricultural region of La Plata River basin in Uruguay. Estimates of pesticide use were made by surveying doses applied to each crop. This information was spatialized through identifying agricultural rotations using remote sensing techniques. The study identified the 60 major agricultural rotations in the region and mapped the use and application amount of the nine most significant active ingredients (glyphosate, 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid, flumioxazin, S-metolachlor, clethodim, flumetsulam, triflumuron, chlorantraniliprole, and fipronil). The results reveal that glyphosate is the most extensively used pesticide (53.5% of the area) and highest amount of use (> 1.44 kg/ha). Moreover, in 19% of the area, at least seven active ingredients are applied in crop rotations. This study marks the initial step in identifying rotations and estimating pesticide applications with high spatial resolution at a regional scale in agricultural regions of La Plata River basin. The results improve the understanding of pesticide spatial distribution based on data obtained from agronomists, technicians, and producers and provide a replicable methodological approach for other geographic and productive contexts. Generating baseline information is key to environmental management and decision making, towards the design of more robust monitoring systems and human exposure assessment.

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Land use conversion of natural to production systems is one of the most important threats to belowground communities and to the key ecosystem processes in which they are involved. Available literature shows positive, negative, and neutral effects of land use changes on soil fauna communities; and these varying effects may be due to different characteristics of natural and production systems and soil organisms. We hypothesize that land conversion from high to low plant biomass, diversity, and structural complexity systems may have the most negative impacts on soil fauna. Here, we performed the first meta-analysis evaluating the overall effects of land use conversion on soil invertebrate communities and the influence of factors related to characteristics of natural and production systems, of soil fauna communities and methods. We compiled a dataset of 260 publications that yielded 1732 observations for soil fauna abundance and 459 for richness. Both abundance and richness showed a global decline as a consequence of natural land conversion to production systems. These negative effects were stronger, in general, when the conversion occurred in tropical and subtropical sites, and when natural systems were replaced by croplands, pastures and grazing systems. The effects of land use conversion also depended on soil property changes. In addition, the abundance of most taxa and richness of Acari and Collembola were strongly reduced by land use changes while Annelida were not affected. The highest reduction in abundance was recorded in omnivores and predators, whereas detritivores showed a reduction in richness. Our meta-analysis shows consistent evidence of soil biodiversity decline due to different land use changes and the partial dependence of those effects on the magnitude of changes in vegetation. These findings stress the need to continue developing production modes that effectively preserve soil biodiversity and ecosystem processes, without hampering food production.

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Contaminants of emerging concern (CECs), including microplastics, have been the focus of many studies due to their environmental impact, affecting biota and human health. The diverse land uses and occupation of watersheds are important parameters driving the occurrence of these contaminants. CECs such as pesticides, drugs, hormones, and industrial-origin substances were analyzed in urban/industrial (Atibaia) and agricultural (Preto/Turvo) watersheds located in São Paulo state, Brazil. A total of 24 CECs were investigated, and, as a result, only 5 (caffeine, carbendazim, atrazine, ametrine and 2-hydroxytrazine) were responsible for 81.73 % of the statistical difference between watersheds contamination profile. The Atibaia watershed presented considerable concentrations of caffeine (ranging from 75 to 2025 ng L-1), while carbendazim (44 to 1144 ng L-1) and atrazine (3 to 266 ng L-1) presented highest levels in Preto/Turvo watershed. In all sampling points, the cumulative potential aquatic life risk assessed by the NORMAN database indicates some level of environmental concern associated to pesticides and caffeine (risk quotient >1). Microplastics had been analyzed in both watersheds, being the white/transparent fragments in size between 100 and 250 µm the most detected in this study. The estimated abundance in the Atibaia watershed ranged from 349 to 2898 items m-3 presenting some influence of pluviosity, while in Rio Preto/Turvo ranged from 169 to 6370 items m-3, being more abundant in the dam area without a clear influence of pluviosity. In both basins, polyethylene and polypropylene were the most detected polymers, probably due to the intense use of single-use plastics in urban areas. Possibly, due to the distinct physic-chemical properties of microplastics and organic CECs, no correlations were observed between their occurrence, which makes us conclude that they have different transport mechanism, behavior, and fate in the environment.

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In the Americas, wild yellow fever (WYF) is an infectious disease that is highly lethal for some non-human primate species and non-vaccinated people. Specifically, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, Haemagogus leucocelaenus and Haemagogus janthinomys mosquitoes act as the major vectors. Despite transmission risk being related to vector densities, little is known about how landscape structure affects vector abundance and movement. To fill these gaps, we used vector abundance data and a model-selection approach to assess how landscape structure affects vector abundance, aiming to identify connecting elements for virus dispersion in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Our findings show that Hg. leucocelaenus and Hg. janthinomys abundances, in highly degraded and fragmented landscapes, are mainly affected by increases in forest cover at scales of 2.0 and 2.5 km, respectively. Fragmented landscapes provide ecological corridors for vector dispersion, which, along with high vector abundance, promotes the creation of risk areas for WYF virus spread, especially along the border with Minas Gerais state, the upper edges of the Serra do Mar, in the Serra da Cantareira, and in areas of the metropolitan regions of São Paulo and Campinas.

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Climate change and land use change are two main drivers of global biodiversity decline, decreasing the genetic diversity that populations harbour and altering patterns of local adaptation. Landscape genomics allows measuring the effect of these anthropogenic disturbances on the adaptation of populations. However, both factors have rarely been considered simultaneously. Based on a set of 3660 SNPs from which 130 were identified as outliers by a genome-environment association analysis (LFMM), we modelled the spatial turnover of allele frequencies in 19 localities of Pinus leiophylla across the Avocado Belt in Michoacán state, Mexico. Then, we evaluated the effect of climate change and land use change scenarios, in addition to evaluating assisted gene flow strategies and connectivity metrics across the landscape to identify priority conservation areas for the species. We found that localities in the centre-east of the Avocado Belt would be more vulnerable to climate change, while localities in the western area are more threatened by land conversion to avocado orchards. Assisted gene flow actions could aid in mitigating both threats. Connectivity patterns among forest patches will also be modified by future habitat loss, with central and eastern parts of the Avocado Belt maintaining the highest connectivity. These results suggest that areas with the highest priority for conservation are in the eastern part of the Avocado Belt, including the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. This work is useful as a framework that incorporates distinct layers of information to provide a more robust representation of the response of tree populations to anthropogenic disturbances.

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Discerning the impact of anthropogenic impacts requires the implementation of bioindicators that quantify the susceptibilities and vulnerabilities of natural terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to perturbation and transformation. Although legal regulations in Brazil recognize the value of bioindicators in monitoring water quality, the depreciation of soil conditions has yet to receive adequate attention. Thus, our study aimed to evaluate the potential of odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) as amphibiotic bioindicators to reflect the correlation between the degradation of aquatic and terrestrial habitats in pasture-dominated landscapes. We assessed the relationship between the biotic indices of Odonata and the conservation status of preserved riparian landscapes adjacent to anthropogenically altered pastures in 40 streams in the Brazilian savannah. Our results support the hypothesis that Odonata species composition may be a surrogate indicator for soil and water integrity, making them promising sentinels for detecting environmental degradation and guiding conservation strategies in human-altered landscapes. Importantly, while the Zygoptera/Anisoptera species ratio is a useful bioindicator tool in Brazilian forest, it is less effective in the open savannah here, and so an alternative index is required. Importantly, while the Zygoptera/Anisoptera species ratio is a useful bioindicator tool in Brazilian forest, it is less effective in the open savannah here, and so an alternative index is required. On the other hand, our results showed the Dragonfly Biotic Index to be a suitable tool for assessing freshwater habitats in Brazilian savannah. We also identified certain bioindicator species at both ends of the environment intactness spectrum.

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BACKGROUND: Deforestation is an important driver of malaria dynamics, with a relevant impact on mosquito ecology, including larval habitat availability, blood-feeding behaviour, and peak biting time. The latter is one of several entomological metrics to evaluate vectorial capacity and effectiveness of disease control. This study aimed to test the effect of forest cover percentage on the peak biting time of Plasmodium-uninfected and infected Nyssorhynchus darlingi females. METHODS: Mosquitoes were captured utilizing human landing catch (HLC) in the peridomestic habitat in field collections carried out in the wet, wet-dry transition, and dry seasons from 2014 to 2017 in areas with active malaria transmission in Amazonian Brazil. The study locations were in rural settlements in areas with the mean annual malaria parasite incidence (Annual Parasite Incidence, API ≥ 30). All Ny. darlingi females were tested for Plasmodium spp. infection using real time PCR technique. Forest cover percentage was calculated for each collection site using QGIS v. 2.8 and was categorized in three distinct deforestation scenarios: (1) degraded, < 30% forest cover, (2) intermediate, 30-70% forest cover, and (3) preserved, > 70% forest cover. RESULTS: The highest number of uninfected female Ny. darlingi was found in degraded landscape-sites with forest cover < 30% in any peak biting time between 18:00 and 0:00. Partially degraded landscape-sites, with (30-70%) forest cover, showed the highest number of vivax-infected females, with a peak biting time of 21:00-23:00. The number of P. falciparum-infected mosquitoes was highest in preserved sites with > 70% forest cover, a peak biting at 19:00-20:00, and in sites with 30-70% forest cover at 22:00-23:00. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study show empirically that degraded landscapes favour uninfected Ny. darlingi with a peak biting time at dusk (18:00-19:00), whereas partially degraded landscapes affect the behaviour of Plasmodium-infected Ny. darlingi by shifting its peak biting time towards hours after dark (21:00-23:00). In preserved sites, Plasmodium-infected Ny. darlingi bite around dusk (18:00-19:00) and shortly after (19:00-20:00).

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Landscape changes based on spectral responses allow showing plant cover changes through diversity, composition, and ecological connectivity. The spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics of the Bijagual Massif from 1986 to 2021 were analyzed as a measure of ecological integrity, conservation, and territory. The covers identified were high open forest (Hof), dense grassland of non-wooded mainland (Dgnm), a mosaic of pastures and crops (Mpc), lagoons (Lag), and bare and degraded lands (Bdl). The Bijagual Massif has 8574.1 ha. In 1986, Dgnm occupied 42.6% of the total area, followed by Mpc (32.8%) and Hof (24.5%); by 2000, Mpc and Hof increased (43.7 and 28.1%, respectively), while Dgnm decreased (28%); by 2021, Dgnm was restricted to the northeastern zone and continued to decrease (25.2%), Mpc occupied 52.9%, Hof 21.7% and Bdl 0.1%. Of the three fractions of the connectivity probability index, only dPCintra and dPCflux contribute to ecological connectivity. Hof and Dgnm show patches with biota habitat quality and availability. Between 1986 and 2021, Dgnm lost 1489 ha (41%) and Hof 239.5 ha (11%). Mpc replaced various covers (1722.2 ha; 38%) in 2021. Bijagual has a valuable biodiversity potential limited by Mpc. Territorial planning and sustainable agroecological and ecotourism proposals are required due to the context of the ecosystems.

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The change in land use in the Brazilian Cerrado modifies the dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM) and, consequently, carbon (C) stocks and their fractions and soil enzyme activities. This study evaluated the effect of brachiaria (Brachiaria decumbens Stapf.) intercropped with Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) on the stock and fractions of soil carbon and enzyme activities. The experiment was arranged in a completely randomized block design with three replications and treatments in a factorial design. The first factor consisted of coffee with or without intercropped brachiaria, the second of Arabica coffee cultivars ('I.P.R.103' and 'I.P.R.99') and the third factor of the point of soil sampling (under the canopy (UC) and in inter-rows (I)). Soil was sampled in layers of 0-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, 40-60 and 60-80 cm. Soil from the 0-10 cm layer was also used to analyze enzymatic activity. Significant effects of coffee intercropped with brachiaria were confirmed for particulate organic carbon (POC), with highest contents in the 0-10 and 20-30 cm layers (9.62 and 6.48 g kg-1, respectively), and for soil enzymes (280.83 and 180.3 µg p-nitrophenol g-1 for arylsulfatase and ß-glucosidase, respectively).

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Sustainable livestock management plays a crucial role in food production, climate change mitigation, and cultural preservation. Our study aimed to identify and analyse the diversity of social-ecological conditions that characterize extensive livestock systems in southern Patagonia. We integrated data collected from interviews and secondary sources and analysed data using hierarchical cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling to identify distinct ranching types. A qualitative analysis of key informant interviews identified key social-ecological changes for each type. The results emphasize the impact of administration, production, and biophysical factors on shaping different livestock ranching schemes. Further, we identified three significant social-ecological changes driving the dynamics of these systems, including shifts from (1) sheep to cattle ranching, (2) domestic to feral cattle ranching, and (3) landowners to tenant land managers. These findings have implications for policymakers seeking to develop strategies tailored to diverse realities, ensuring the sustainability of livestock systems in Tierra del Fuego.

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High transportation costs have been a barrier to the expansion of agriculture in the interior of Brazil. To reduce transportation costs, Brazil launched the National Logistics Plan, aiming to expand its railway network by up to 91 % by 2035. Such a large-scale infrastructure investment raises concerns about its economic and environmental consequences. By combining geospatial estimation of transportation cost with a grid-resolving, multi-scale economic model that bridges fine-scale crop production with its trade and demand from national and global perspectives, we explore impacts of transportation infrastructure expansion on agricultural production, land use changes, and carbon emissions both locally and nationally in Brazil. We find that globally, the impacts on output and land use changes are small. However, within Brazil, the plan's primary impacts are impressive. PNL2035 results in the reduction of transportation costs by 8-23 % across states (depending on expansion's extent) in the interior Cerrado biome. This results in cropland expansion and increases in terrestrial carbon emissions in the Cerrado region. However, the increase in terrestrial carbon emissions in the Cerrado is offset by spillover effects elsewhere in Brazil, as crop production shifts away from the Southeast-South regions and accompanying change in the mix of transportation mode for farm products from roadway to more emission-efficient railway. Furthermore, we argue that the transportation infrastructure's impact on the enhanced mobility of labor and other agricultural inputs would further accentuate the regional shift in agricultural production and contribute to carbon emission mitigation. Upon its completion, PNL2035 is expected to result in the reduction of net national emissions by 1.8-30.7 million metric ton of CO2-equivalent, depending on the impacts on labor and purchased input mobility. We conclude that the omission of spillover effects due to infrastructure expansion can lead to misleading assessments of transport policies.