RESUMO

The processes that generate biodiversity start on a microevolutionary scale, where each individual's history can impact the species' history. This manuscript presents a theoretical study that examines the macroevolutionary patterns that emerge from the microevolutionary dynamics of populations inhabiting two patches. The model is neutral, meaning that neither survival nor reproduction depends on a fixed genotype, yet individuals must have minimal genetic similarity to reproduce. We used historical sea level oscillation over the past 800 thousand years to hypothesize periods when individuals could migrate from one patch to another. In our study, we keep track of each speciation and extinction event, build the complete and extant phylogenies, and characterize the macroevolutionary patterns regarding phylogeny balance, acceleration of speciation, and crown age. We also evaluate ecological patterns: richness, beta diversity, and species distribution symmetry. The balance of the complete phylogeny can be a sign of the speciation mode, contrasting speciation induced by migration and isolation (vicariance). The acceleration of the speciation process is also affected by the geographical barriers and the duration of the isolation period, with high isolation times leading to accelerated speciation. We report the correlation between ecological and macroevolutionary patterns and show it decreases with the time spent in isolation. We discuss, in light of our results, the challenge of integrating present-time community ecology with macroevolutionary patterns.

RESUMO

The yellow clam Mesodesma mactroides is a cool-water species that typifies sandy beaches of the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SAO), which embraces one of the strongest ocean warming hotspots. The region is influenced by the Rio de la Plata (RdlP), which represents a zoogeographic barrier that restricts its larval exchange. We investigated yellow clam larval connectivity patterns using an individual based model (IBM). The IBM combined outputs from a 3D hydrodynamic model with a clam submodel that considered salinity- and temperature-dependent mortality for the planktonic larvae. Connectivity across the RdlP estuary occurred only for larvae released in spring during a strong La Niña event. Mortality due to freshwater precluded larval transport across the RdlP, whereas larval mortality induced by warmer waters reduced connectivity, leading to self-recruitment in most areas. Warming acceleration in this hotspot could further restrict larval connectivity between populations in the SAO, with conservation implications for this threatened species.

Assuntos

RESUMO

This study evaluates through modelling the possible individual and combined effect of three populational parameters of pathogens (reproduction rate; rate of novelty emergence; and propagule size) on the colonization of new host species-putatively the most fundamental process leading to the emergence of new infectious diseases. The results are analysed under the theoretical framework of the Stockholm Paradigm using IBM simulations to better understand the evolutionary dynamics of the pathogen population and the possible role of Ecological Fitting. The simulations suggest that all three parameters positively influence the success of colonization of new hosts by a novel parasite population, but contrary to the prevailing belief, the rate of novelty emergence (e.g. mutations) is the least important factor. Maximization of all parameters results in a synergetic facilitation of the colonization and emulates the expected scenario for pathogenic microorganisms. The simulations also provide theoretical support for the retention of the capacity of fast-evolving lineages to retro-colonize their previous host species/lineage by ecological fitting. Capacity is, thus, much larger than we can anticipate. Hence, the results support the empirical observations that opportunity of encounter (i.e. the breakdown in mechanisms for ecological isolation) is a fundamental determinant to the emergence of new associations-especially Emergent Infectious Diseases-and the dynamics of host exploration, as observed in SARS-CoV-2. Insights on the dynamics of Emergent Infectious Diseases derived from the simulations and from the Stockholm Paradigm are discussed.

Assuntos

RESUMO

Rough-toothed dolphins, Steno bredanensis, are closely associated with coastal waters in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean, increasing the exposure to multiple stressors, such as chemical pollution. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are known to affect the health of cetacean species. To comprehend the potential impacts of POPs on populations' viability, it is necessary to distinguish populations and predict their risk of long-term exposure. Blubbers of rough-toothed dolphins (n = 28) collected along the southeastern (SE) and southern (S) Brazilian coast were screened for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides in a gas chromatograph coupled to a mass spectrometer. Based on the contamination profile, a discriminant function analysis separated the rough-toothed dolphins into three ecological populations: two coastal and one offshore. POP concentrations were the highest reported for the species worldwide and highest among the delphinids in Brazilian waters, reaching 647.9 µg g-1 lw for PCBs. The SE population presented 212.9 ± 163.0, S population presented 101.0 ± 96.7, and OCS/S population presented 183.3 ± 85.3 µg g-1 lw (mean ± SD) of PCBs. The potential risk of effects triggered by elevated PCB concentrations was assessed in an individual-based model. A risk of severe decline in population size is projected for the three populations in the next 100 years, especially in SE Brazil, varying between 67 and 99%.

Assuntos

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cattle fever ticks (CFT), Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) annulatus and R. (B.) microplus, are vectors of microbes causing bovine babesiosis and pose a threat to the economic viability of the US livestock industry. Efforts by the Cattle Fever Tick Eradication Program (CFTEP) along the US-Mexico border in south Texas are complicated by the involvement of alternate hosts, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and nilgai (Boselaphus tragocamelus). METHODS: In the present study, we use a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore the potential effects of host species composition and host habitat use patterns on southern cattle fever ticks (SCFT, R. (B.) microplus) infestation dynamics and efficacy of eradication schemes. RESULTS: In simulations without eradication efforts, mean off-host larval densities were much higher when cattle were present than when only white-tailed deer and nilgai were present. Densities in mesquite and meadows were slightly higher, and densities in mixed brush were much lower, than landscape-level densities in each of these scenarios. In eradication simulations, reductions in mean off-host larval densities at the landscape level were much smaller when acaricide was applied to cattle only, or to cattle and white-tailed deer, than when applied to cattle and nilgai. Relative density reductions in mesquite, mixed brush, and meadows depended on host habitat use preferences. Shifting nilgai habitat use preferences increasingly toward mixed brush and away from mesquite did not change mean off-host larval tick densities noticeably at the landscape level. However, mean densities were increased markedly in mesquite and decreased markedly in mixed brush, while no noticeable change in density was observed in meadows. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that continued integration of field data into spatially explicit, individual-based models will facilitate the development of novel eradication strategies and will allow near-real-time infestation forecasts as an aid in anticipating and preventing wildlife-mediated impacts on SCFT eradication efforts.

Assuntos

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Some tick species are invasive and of high consequence to public and veterinary health. Socioeconomic development of rural parts of the USA was enabled partly through the eradication by 1943 of cattle fever ticks (CFT, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) annulatus and R. (B.) microplus). The southern cattle fever ticks (SCFT, R. (B.) microplus) remain a real and present threat to the USA animal agriculture because they are established in Mexico. Livestock-wildlife interactions in the Permanent Quarantine Zone (PQZ) established by the century-old Cattle Fever Tick Eradication Programme (CFTEP) in south Texas endanger its operations. METHODS: We describe a spatially-explicit, individual-based model that simulates interactions between cattle, white-tailed deer (WTD, Odocoileus virginianus), and nilgai (Boselaphus tragocamelus) to assess the risk for SCFT infestations across the pathogenic landscape in the PQZ and beyond. We also investigate the potential role of nilgai in sustaining SCFT populations by simulating various hypothetical infestation and eradication scenarios. RESULTS: All infestation scenarios resulted in a phase transition from a relatively small proportion of the ranch infested to almost the entire ranch infested coinciding with the typical period of autumn increases in off-host tick larvae. Results of eradication scenarios suggest that elimination of all on-host ticks on cattle, WTD, or nilgai would have virtually no effect on the proportion of the ranch infested or on the proportions of different tick habitat types infested; the entire ranch would remain infested. If all on-host ticks were eliminated on cattle and WTD, WTD and nilgai, or cattle and nilgai, the proportions of the ranch infested occasionally would drop to 0.6, 0.6 and 0.2, respectively. Differences in proportions of the ranch infested from year to year were due to primarily to differences in winter weather conditions, whereas infestation differences among tick habitat types were due primarily to habitat use preferences of hosts. CONCLUSIONS: Infestations in nilgai augment SCFT refugia enabled by WTD and promote pest persistence across the landscape and cattle parasitism. Our study documented the utility of enhanced biosurveillance using simulation tools to mitigate risk and enhance operations of area-wide tick management programmes like the CFTEP through integrated tactics for SCFT suppression.

Assuntos

RESUMO

Females from the same population usually have phenotypic variation in their mating preferences. However, the effects of this within-population variation on the sexual selection acting on males are still unclear. We used individual-based models to explore how within-population variation in female preference (i.e. which male trait value is preferred) and preference strength (i.e. how strong the preference is) affects the opportunity for sexual selection (Is ) and the evolution of a sexually selected male trait. We found the highest Is values when females had high variation in preference and an open-ended preference function. The lowest Is occurred when the magnitude of variation in female preference and male trait value were the same and preference function was closed. Male trait exaggeration was higher when there was high within-population variation in preference and females had an open-ended preference function. Also, higher male trait variation was maintained by high variation in preference, but only for a closed preference function. Thus, we found that only within-population variation in female preference, not in preference strength, influences the opportunity for sexual selection and the evolution of sexually selected male traits. Moreover, we found that the shape of the preference function (i.e. open-ended or closed) and the magnitude of within-population variation in female preference compared to male trait variation also influences the Is and consequently the evolution of male traits.

Assuntos

RESUMO

Denitrification is one of the key processes of the global nitrogen (N) cycle driven by bacteria. It has been widely known for more than 100 years as a process by which the biogeochemical N-cycle is balanced. To study this process, we develop an individual-based model called INDISIM-Denitrification. The model embeds a thermodynamic model for bacterial yield prediction inside the individual-based model INDISIM and is designed to simulate in aerobic and anaerobic conditions the cell growth kinetics of denitrifying bacteria. INDISIM-Denitrification simulates a bioreactor that contains a culture medium with succinate as a carbon source, ammonium as nitrogen source and various electron acceptors. To implement INDISIM-Denitrification, the individual-based model INDISIM was used to give sub-models for nutrient uptake, stirring and reproduction cycle. Using a thermodynamic approach, the denitrification pathway, cellular maintenance and individual mass degradation were modeled using microbial metabolic reactions. These equations are the basis of the sub-models for metabolic maintenance, individual mass synthesis and reducing internal cytotoxic products. The model was implemented in the open-access platform NetLogo. INDISIM-Denitrification is validated using a set of experimental data of two denitrifying bacteria in two different experimental conditions. This provides an interactive tool to study the denitrification process carried out by any denitrifying bacterium since INDISIM-Denitrification allows changes in the microbial empirical formula and in the energy-transfer-efficiency used to represent the metabolic pathways involved in the denitrification process. The simulator can be obtained from the authors on request.

Assuntos

RESUMO

Multiple environmental stressors impact wildlife populations, but we often know little about their cumulative and combined influences on population outcomes. We generally know more about past effects than potential future impacts, and direct influences such as changes of habitat footprints than indirect, long-term responses in behavior, distribution, or abundance. Yet, an understanding of all these components is needed to plan for future landscapes that include human activities and wildlife. We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual-based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater Sage-grouse in southwest Wyoming, USA, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate-induced vegetation changes 50 years into the future. Using a time-series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate-induced changes in vegetation, we recalculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long-term Sage-grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling offered a useful means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. The inclusion of movement and demographic responses to oil and gas infrastructure resulted in substantive changes in distribution and abundance when cumulated over several decades and throughout the regional population. When combined, additive development and climate-induced vegetation changes reduced abundance by up to half of the original size. In our example, the consideration of only a single population stressor the final possible population size by as much as 50%. Multiple stressors and their cumulative impacts need to be broadly considered through space and time to avoid underestimating the impacts of multiple gradual changes and overestimating the ability of populations to withstand change.

Assuntos

RESUMO

We analyze an ant navigation model based on Weber's law, where the ants move across a pheromone landscape sensing the area using two antennae. The key parameter of the model is the angle [Formula: see text] representing the span of the ant's sensing area. We show that when [Formula: see text] ants are able to follow (straight) pheromone trails proving that for initial conditions close to the trail, there exists a Lyapunov function that ensures ant trajectories converge on and follow the pheromone trail, with these solutions being locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, we indicate that the features of the ant trajectories such as convergence speed or oscillation wave length are controlled by the angle [Formula: see text]. For [Formula: see text], we present numerical evidence that indicates that ants are unable to follow pheromone trails. We also assess our model by comparing it to previous experimental results, showing that the solutions' behavior falls into biologically meaningful ranges. Our work provides solid mathematical support for experimental studies where it was found that ant perception follows a Weber's law, by proving that such models lead to the desired robust and stable trail following.

Assuntos

RESUMO

We present a theoretical approach to control bovine brucellosis. We have used individual-based modelling, which is a network-type alternative to compartmental models. Our model thus considers heterogeneous populations, and spatial aspects such as migration among herds and control actions described as pulse interventions are also easily implemented. We show that individual-based modelling reproduces the mean field behaviour of an equivalent compartmental model. Details of this process, as well as flowcharts, are provided to facilitate the reproduction of the presented results. We further investigate three numerical examples using real parameters of herds in the São Paulo state of Brazil, in scenarios which explore eradication, continuous and pulsed vaccination and meta-population effects. The obtained results are in good agreement with the expected behaviour of this disease, which ultimately showcases the effectiveness of our theory.

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of Brazil: Rio Grande do Norte, Amazonas, Ceará, Tocantins. METHODS: A linear mixed model, a back-calculation approach, a deterministic compartmental model and an individual-based model were used. All models were fitted to leprosy data obtained from the Brazilian national database (SINAN). First, models were fitted to the data up to 2011, and predictions were made for NCDR for 2012-2014. Second, data up to 2014 were considered and forecasts of NCDR were generated for each year from 2015 to 2040. The resulting distributions of NCDR and the probability of NCDR being below 10/100,000 of the population for each year were then compared between approaches. RESULTS: Each model performed well in model fitting and the short-term forecasting of future NCDR. Long-term forecasting of NCDR and the probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 differed between models. All agree that the trend of NCDR will continue to decrease in all states until 2040. Reaching a NCDR of less than 10/100,000 by 2020 was only likely in Rio Grande do Norte. Prediction until 2040 showed that the target was also achieved in Amazonas, while in Ceará and Tocantins the NCDR most likely remain (far) above 10/100,000. CONCLUSIONS: All models agree that, while incidence is likely to decline, achieving a NCDR below 10/100,000 by 2020 is unlikely in some states. Long-term prediction showed a downward trend with more variation between models, but highlights the need for further control measures to reduce the incidence of new infections if leprosy is to be eliminated.

Assuntos

RESUMO

Trees capable of symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation ('N fixers') are abundant in many tropical forests. In temperate forests, it is well known that N fixers specialize in early-successional niches, but in tropical forests, successional trends of N-fixing species are poorly understood. We used a long-term census study (1997-2013) of regenerating lowland wet tropical forests in Costa Rica to document successional patterns of N fixers vs non-fixers, and used an individual-based model to determine the demographic drivers of these trends. N fixers increased in relative basal area during succession. In the youngest forests, N fixers grew 2.5 times faster, recruited at a similar rate and were 15 times less likely to die as non-fixers. As succession proceeded, the growth and survival disparities decreased, whereas N fixer recruitment decreased relative to non-fixers. According to our individual-based model, high survival was the dominant driver of the increase in basal area of N fixers. Our data suggest that N fixers are successful throughout secondary succession in tropical rainforests of north-east Costa Rica, and that attempts to understand this success should focus on tree survival.

Assuntos

RESUMO

Climate induced species range shifts might create novel interactions among species that may outweigh direct climatic effects. In an agricultural context, climate change might alter the intensity of competition or facilitation interactions among pests with, potentially, negative consequences on the levels of damage to crop. This could threaten the productivity of agricultural systems and have negative impacts on food security, but has yet been poorly considered in studies. In this contribution, we constructed and evaluated process-based species distribution models for three invasive potato pests in the Tropical Andean Region. These three species have been found to co-occur and interact within the same potato tuber, causing different levels of damage to crop. Our models allowed us to predict the current and future distribution of the species and therefore, to assess how damage to crop might change in the future due to novel interactions. In general, our study revealed the main challenges related to distribution modeling of invasive pests in highly heterogeneous regions. It yielded different results for the three species, both in terms of accuracy and distribution, with one species surviving best at lower altitudes and the other two performing better at higher altitudes. As to future distributions our results suggested that the three species will show different responses to climate change, with one of them expanding to higher altitudes, another contracting its range and the other shifting its distribution to higher altitudes. These changes will result in novel areas of co-occurrence and hence, interactions of the pests, which will cause different levels of damage to crop. Combining population dynamics and species distribution models that incorporate interspecific trade-off relationships in different environments revealed a powerful approach to provide predictions about the response of an assemblage of interacting species to future environmental changes and their impact on process rates.

Assuntos