RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop and validate predictive models that assess the risk of leprosy development among contacts, contributing to an enhanced understanding of disease occurrence in this population. METHODS: A cohort of 600 contacts of people with leprosy treated at the National Reference Center for Leprosy and Health Dermatology at the Federal University of Uberlândia (CREDESH/HC-UFU) was followed up between 2002 and 2022. The database was divided into two parts: two-third to construct the disease risk score and one-third to validate this score. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to construct the disease score. RESULTS: Of the four models constructed, model 3, which included the variables anti-phenolic glycolipid I immunoglobulin M positive, absence of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine scar and age ≥60 years, was considered the best for identifying a higher risk of illness, with a specificity of 89.2%, a positive predictive value of 60% and an accuracy of 78%. CONCLUSIONS: Risk prediction models can contribute to the management of leprosy contacts and the systematisation of contact surveillance protocols.
Assuntos
Hanseníase , Humanos , Hanseníase/epidemiologia , Brasil/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Adolescente , Busca de Comunicante , Adulto Jovem , Fatores de Risco , Criança , Medição de Risco , Vacina BCG , Idoso , Pré-Escolar , Modelos Logísticos , Estudos de Coortes , Imunoglobulina M/sangueRESUMO
Contact surveillance is a valuable strategy for controlling leprosy. A dynamic cohort study of leprosy contacts was initiated in 1987 at Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. The objective of this work was to review the data on the major risk factors leading up to the infectious stage of the disease, estimate incidence rates of leprosy in the cohort and characterise the risk factors for the disease among the contacts under surveillance. The incidence rate of leprosy among contacts of leprosy patients was estimated at 0.01694 cases per person-year in the first five years of follow-up. The following factors were associated with acquiring the disease: (i) not receiving the BCG vaccine, (ii) a negative Mitsuda reaction and (iii) contact with a patient with a multibacillary clinical form of leprosy. The contacts of index patients who had high bacilloscopic index scores > 1 were at especially high risk of infection. The following factors were associated with infection, which was defined as a seropositive reaction for anti-phenolic glicolipid-1 IgM: (i) young age (< 20 years), (ii) a low measured Mitsuda reaction (< 5 mm) and (iii) contact with an index patient who had a high bacilloscopic index. BCG vaccination and re-vaccination were shown to be protective among household contacts. The main conclusions of this study indicate an urgent need for additional leprosy control strategies in areas with a high incidence of the disease.