RESUMO
PIP: The author describes a set of principles concerning census procedures agreed to by the countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. These include an agreement to conduct a decennial census at the end of each decade and close to the beginning of a year, and an agreed number of minimum and optimum components. Dates of future censuses include: Poland, 1988; USSR, 1989; Mongolia, 1989; Viet Nam, 1989; Romania, 1990; Hungary, 1990; Cuba, 1990; Czechoslovakia, 1990; German Democratic Republic, 1991; Yugoslavia, 1991; and Bulgaria, 2000.^ieng
Assuntos
Censos , Cooperação Internacional , América , Ásia , Sudeste Asiático , Bulgária , Região do Caribe , Cuba , Tchecoslováquia , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Europa (Continente) , Europa Oriental , Ásia Oriental , Alemanha Oriental , Hungria , América Latina , Mongólia , América do Norte , Polônia , Características da População , Pesquisa , Romênia , U.R.S.S. , Vietnã , IugosláviaRESUMO
PIP: The attempt is made in this discussion to describe and draw lessons from the treatment of behavioral demographic variables in the Bachue demo-economic models constructed for the Philippines, Kenya, Brazil and Yugoslavia. Focus is on certain theoretical, technical and practical problems encountered in inserting demographic variables in the system as a whole; how they have been measured in the various applications of the Bachue models, how they are behaviorally explained and linked to the other elements in the system, the data sources used, and some issues of econometric estimates and modelling. 8 issues are dealt with: population accounting and lag structure; fertility; mortality; migration; nuptiality; household formation; schooling; and labor force participation. In each case model structure, dependent and explanatory variables, and empirical strategy are discussed. Summary tables compare the approaches of the different models. The specifics of each country situation rule out the identification of the best solution. Some suggestions regarding more promising approaches are included with respect to choice of variables and the estimation of behavioral models. The endogenous nature of certain demographic elements of a demo-economic model are clear, but construction of the Bachue models has shown that there are no exact rules valid for all cases. There is considerable variety in the way characteristics of the population have been represented in the various applications.^ieng
Assuntos
Computadores , Demografia , Economia , Modelos Econômicos , Modelos Teóricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Estatística como Assunto , África , África Subsaariana , África Oriental , América , Ásia , Sudeste Asiático , Brasil , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Educação , Processamento Eletrônico de Dados , Emigração e Imigração , Emprego , Europa (Continente) , Europa Oriental , Características da Família , Fertilidade , Quênia , América Latina , Casamento , Idade Materna , Mortalidade , Filipinas , População , Características da População , Pesquisa , Classe Social , América do Sul , IugosláviaRESUMO
PIP: The excess rate of migration to urban centers is a problem affecting over 50 developing countries and 18 developed ones (68% of the world's population). Policies that rely on compulsion or disincentives have mostly failed because they do not deal with the cause of the problem. This paper proposes a strategy of increasing or decreasing the rate of housing construction in different urban areas as a means of stimulating or reducing migration to those areas; in most developing areas priority is given to residential construction in already congested metropolitan areas. 5 assumptions are the basis for this approach: 1) migrants tend to gravitate to the most powerful growth poles; 2) residential construction is a leading sector of regional and urban economies; 3) the encouragement of construction activity will make itself felt indirectly via its effect on construction-related employment; 4) rates of residential construction may be manipulated through government policy affecting the cost of materials, availability of loans, level of unionization, and price of housing; and 5) residential construction is amenable to quick policy action. The central idea of the strategy is that an increase in residential construction will exercise a pull on migrants, increasing job opportunities, raising incomes, lowering housing costs, and improving the chances of home ownership. This idea has been verified by various projects in Hong Kong, Ghana, Venezuela, Brazil, Bahrain, Mexico, Colombia, Poland, USSR, and the UK. In Bahrain low-income housing programs have been used to relocate Bahraini nationals in new outlying suburbs and to promote population growth in rural villages. In Mexico self-help and low-income housing programs have helped to redirect migrants headed for small towns toward smaller communities. There is also evidence to show that building construction has the potential to expand and contribute to economic growth. Some problems of implementation might be finding an adequate economic base, the need to place new communities close to primate cities, the use of large portions of the national budget, and profit-maximizing plans have been detrimental to the speed and development of construction migration. Some benefits for smaller urban areas of construction migrants in developing countries are: 1) emphasis on the development of a labor-intensive industry, 2) little training of workers as needed, 3) it can provide the housing required by industries planning to move to smaller areas, 4) this housing will be cheaper, and 5) incentives will exist to save and invest in the smaller areas.^ieng
Assuntos
Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , Emigração e Imigração , Habitação , Dinâmica Populacional , Política Pública , Planejamento Social , Urbanização , Argélia , Barein , Brasil , Colômbia , Demografia , Geografia , Gana , Hong Kong , Renda , Japão , México , Polônia , População , Características de Residência , Suécia , U.R.S.S. , População Urbana , Venezuela , IugosláviaRESUMO
PIP: Some development strategists equate progress with economic growth and others consider increased equity in income distribution or a reduction in poverty as indicators of progress. This report examined the empirical relationship between economic growth and income distribution using data derived from a number of recent comparative studies. Various studies supported the Kuznets hypothesis, which states that during the early phases of development income distribution worsens and improves during the later phases. These studies demonstrated that as per capita income increases in poor countries, income distribution worsens until the per capita income reaches the $800 level. After that level is reached, income distribution generally improves. In a study of 11 countries, the relationship, in recent years, between income growth for the rich and for the poor, and income growth for the country as a whole was examined. Of the 11 countries, Taiwan, Yugoslavia, Sri Lanka, Korea, and Costa Rica were ranked as good performers, since more than 30% of the increment in national income was allocated to the poorest 60% of the population. The countries of India, Philippines, Turkey, and Colombia were ranked as intermediate performers since 20-30% of the increment in national income went to the poorest 60%. Poor performance countries were Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. In these countries less than 20% of the income increment was allocated to the poorest 60%. A table provided comparative national income and income distribution data for the 11 countries. These findings did not permit an assessment of different development strategies; however, they did indicate that: 1) some countries, such as Taiwan, Yugoslavia, and Korea, achieved both rapid growth and greater income distribution equity; and that 2) although some countires, such as Sri Lanka, which stressed equity, grew less rapidly than other countries, such as Mexico, which stressed economic growth, the poor fared much better in the former countries than in the latter countries. The conclusion was reached that proverty must be reduced by: 1) improving income distribution; 2) promoting economic growth; and 3) reducing population growth. Efforts must be directed toward preventing the poor from falling behind the rich as development proceeds.^ieng
Assuntos
Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , Modelos Econômicos , Política Pública , Classe Social , Brasil , Colômbia , Costa Rica , Índia , Coreia (Geográfico) , México , Modelos Teóricos , Peru , Filipinas , Pesquisa , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Sri Lanka , Taiwan , Turquia , IugosláviaRESUMO
PIP: Responses to the second worldwide survey of 80 nations on their population policy can be divided into 3 categories. First are countries with large official programs of family planning in existence: Egypt, Kenya, Tunisia, Barbados, Colombia, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, China, India, Iran, Japan, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Republic of Viet-nam, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, Denmark, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Yugoslavia, Canada, and Fiji. Madagascar and New Zealand are starting programs. The second category is countries that encourage private family planning programs: Tanzania, Mexico, Israel, Cambodia, Bahrain, Jordan, Laos, Syria, Austria, France, West Germany, Finland, and Norway. Third are listed countries that do not officially support, or that forbid contraception: Gabon, Malawi, Zambia, Greece, Italy, and Spain. Thus Asia and North Africa have the most ambitious programs, but Europe and North America practice contraception universally.^ieng