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BACKGROUND: Wolbachia symbiosis in Aedes aegypti is an emerging biocontrol measure against dengue. However, assessing its real-world efficacy is challenging due to the non-randomised, field-based nature of most intervention studies. This research re-evaluates the spatial-temporal impact of Wolbachia interventions on dengue incidence using a large battery of quasi-experimental methods and assesses each method's validity. METHODS: A systematic search for Wolbachia intervention data was conducted via PUBMED. Efficacy was reassessed using commonly-used quasi-experimental approaches with extensive robustness checks, including geospatial placebo tests and a simulation study. Intervention efficacies across multiple study sites were computed using high-resolution aggregations to examine heterogeneities across sites and study periods. We further designed a stochastic simulation framework to assess the methods' ability to estimate intervention efficacies (IE). RESULTS: Wolbachia interventions in Singapore, Malaysia, and Brazil significantly decreased dengue incidence, with reductions ranging from 48.17% to 69.19%. IEs varied with location and duration. Malaysia showed increasing efficacy over time, while Brazil exhibited initial success with subsequent decline, hinting at operational challenges. Singapore's strategy was highly effective despite partial saturation. Simulations identified Synthetic Control Methods (SCM) and its variant, count Synthetic Control Method (cSCM), as superior in precision, with the smallest percentage errors in efficacy estimation. These methods also demonstrated robustness in placebo tests. CONCLUSIONS: Wolbachia interventions exhibit consistent protective effects against dengue. SCM and cSCM provided the most precise and robust estimates of IEs, validated across simulated and real-world settings.

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The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was introduced in 1994 between Canada, Mexico, and the United States to encourage trilateral trade. In 2008, an unrestricted reciprocal sugar trade agreement, was implemented between Mexico and the United States as part of NAFTA, which led to a significant decrease in the United States' sugar price. However, critics argue that free trade agreements that reduce trade barriers on products such as sugar threaten public health. This study uses the synthetic control method to investigate the causal impact of the unrestricted sugar trade agreement on sugar consumption and diabetes prevalence in the United States. First, we show that sugar consumption in the United States increased by an average of 16% annually after the agreement was signed, corresponding to 5240g per capita. Second, we show that the crude prevalence of diabetes increased by an average of 1% annually in the United States after the agreement was signed, with an increase of 1% and 2% for men and women, respectively. This unintended consequence of NAFTA has had an estimated economic cost of $324.37 million annually.

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Background: City-led interventions are increasingly advocated to achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goal to reduce violence for all. We used a new quantitative evaluation method to examine whether a flagship programme, called the "Pelotas Pact for Peace" (the Pacto), has been effective in reducing violence and crime in the city of Pelotas, Brazil. Methods: We used synthetic control methodology to assess the effects of the Pacto from August 2017 to December 2021, and separately before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Outcomes included monthly rates of homicide and property crime, and yearly rates of assault against women and school drop-out. We constructed synthetic controls (counterfactuals) based on weighted averages from a donor pool of municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul. Weights were identified using pre-intervention outcome trends and confounders (sociodemographics, economics, education, health and development, and drug trafficking). Findings: The Pacto led to an overall 9% reduction in homicide and 7% reduction in robbery in Pelotas. These effects were not uniform across the full post-intervention period as clear effects were only seen during the pandemic period. A 38% reduction in homicide was also specifically associated with the criminal justice strategy of Focussed Deterrence. No significant effects were found for non-violent property crimes, violence against women, and school dropout, irrespective of the post-intervention period. Interpretation: City-level interventions that combine public health and criminal justice approaches could be effective in tackling violence in Brazil. Continued monitoring and evaluation efforts are increasingly needed as cities are proposed as key opportunities for reducing violence for all. Funding: This research was funded by the Wellcome Trust [grant number: 210735_Z_18_Z].

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In this paper we estimate the effect of infrastructure investment on tourism demand. For this purpose, we analyse the case of the Kuelap Archaeological Complex (Peru), which became more attractive and accessible following the construction of Peru's first cable car system and the redevelopment of a nearby airport located in the city of Jaen. In order to estimate the effect of this infrastructure investment package on the number of visitors to Kuelap, we construct a synthetic control using characteristics from several archaeological sites in Peru similar to Kuelap. This synthetic control allows us to estimate the potential number of visits to Kuelap had the infrastructure investment package not been made. Thus, the causal effect is the difference between the actual visits to Kuelap and the ones to the synthetic control. The results show that the number of visits to Kuelap increased by approximately 100% in the wake of the infrastructure investment package.

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Caesarean section (C-section) rates continue to rise globally. Yet, there is little consensus about the key determinants of rising C-section rates and the sources of variation in C-section rates across the world. While C-sections can save lives when medically justified, unnecessary surgical procedures can be harmful for women and babies. We show that a state-wide law passed in São Paulo (Brazil), which increased women's autonomy to choose to deliver via C-section even when not medically necessary, is associated with a 3% increase in overall C-section rates. This association was driven by a 5% increase in primary C-sections, rather than repeated C-sections. Since the law emphasizes women's autonomy, these results are consistent with mothers' demand being an important contributor to high C-section rates in this context.

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Several variables and practices affect the evolution and geographic spread of COVID-19. Some of these variables pertain to policy measures such as social distancing, quarantines for specific areas, and testing availability. In this paper, I analyze the effect that lockdown and testing policies had on new contagions in Chile, especially focusing on potential heterogeneity given by population characteristics. Leveraging a natural experiment in the determination of early quarantines, I use an Augmented Synthetic Control Method to build counterfactuals for high and lower-income areas that experienced a lockdown during the first two months of the pandemic. I find substantial differences in the impact that quarantine policies had for different populations: While lockdowns were effective in containing and reducing new cases of COVID-19 in higher-income municipalities, I find no significant effect of this measure for lower-income areas. To further explain these results, I test for difference in mobility during quarantine for high and lower-income municipalities, as well as delays in test results and testing availability. These findings are consistent with previous results, showing that differences in the effectiveness of lockdowns could be partially attributed to heterogeneity in quarantine compliance in terms of mobility, as well as differential testing availability for higher and lower-income areas.

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Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has gained international attention over the past decade, as manifested in both United Nations policy discussions and hundreds of voluntary projects launched to earn carbon-offset credits. There are ongoing discussions about whether and how projects should be integrated into national climate change mitigation efforts under the Paris Agreement. One consideration is whether these projects have generated additional impacts over and above national policies and other measures. To help inform these discussions, we compare the crediting baselines established ex-ante by voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon to counterfactuals constructed ex-post based on the quasi-experimental synthetic control method. We find that the crediting baselines assume consistently higher deforestation than counterfactual forest loss in synthetic control sites. This gap is partially due to decreased deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon during the early implementation phase of the REDD+ projects considered here. This suggests that forest carbon finance must strike a balance between controlling conservation investment risk and ensuring the environmental integrity of carbon emission offsets. Relatedly, our results point to the need to better align project- and national-level carbon accounting.

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BACKGROUND: In 2013, Uruguay became the first country in the world to legalize recreational cannabis, instituting a non-commercial state regulatory model of production and supply. This study provides the first empirical evidence on its impacts on adolescent use of cannabis and related risks. METHODS: We use a generalization of the synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the impact of legalization in Uruguay on adolescent past year and month cannabis use, perceived availability of cannabis and perceived risk of cannabis use. We compare biennial high school student self-reported survey data from Montevideo and regions in the interior of Uruguay post-legalization (2014-2018) and post initial implementation (2015-2018) to a synthetic counterfactual constructed using a weighted combination of 15 control regions in Chile. RESULTS: We find no evidence of an impact on cannabis use or the perceived risk of use. We find an increase in student perception of cannabis availability (58% observed vs. 51% synthetic control) following legalization. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide some support for the thesis that Uruguay's state regulatory approach to cannabis supply may minimize the impact of legalization on adolescent cannabis use. At the same time, our study period represents a period of transition: pharmacy access, by far the most popular means of access, was not available until the summer of 2017. Additional study will be important to assess the longer-term impacts of the fully implemented legalization regime on substance use outcomes.

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We estimated the impact of the Zika virus outbreak on birth rates and demand for health care services in Colombia. Our analysis exploits the variation in the level of natural protection against mosquito-transmitted diseases across the country. This characteristic induced exogenous variation in Zika incidence, which allows us to construct a control group of municipalities with similar historical fertility trends but with differential exposure to the Zika crisis. We implemented a difference-in-differences model after matching, as well as synthetic control. We found a decrease in birth rates of approx. 10% in the last two quarters of 2019. The impact of the virus was similar irrespective of the women's education level, and we found no discernible impact on teenage pregnancy.

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As mais remotas referências em medicina já descreviam cuidados domiciliares. A utilização do domicílio como espaço de cuidado à saúde expandiu-se mundialmente nas últimas décadas. Essa tendência verificada em vários países do mundo foi motivada pela necessidade de racionalizar a utilização dos leitos hospitalares, devido a problemas relativos à ineficiência, ineficácia e ao aumento crescente da demanda em cuidados de saúde, acompanhando das mudanças demográficas e epidemiológicas. Nesta perspectiva, este estudo propõe avaliar a Política Nacional de Atenção Domiciliar no tocante ao tempo médio de permanência por paciente/dia na rede de urgência e emergência em Pernambuco entre os anos de 2013 a 2016. O período estabelecido na pesquisa justifica-se pelo fato dos anos incidirem com a publicação da Portaria do Ministério da Saúde nº 963 em 2013 que "Redefine a Atenção Domiciliar no âmbito do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS)", e a publicação da Portaria Ministério da Saúde n° 825 em 2016 que também "Redefine a Atenção Domiciliar no âmbito do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) e atualiza as equipes habilitadas". Para este estudo considerou-se para a amostra: 1. Municípios com números de habitantes acima de 20 mil, correlacionando com os que possuem serviços de atenção domiciliar habilitados; 2. Municípios com, pelo menos, uma equipe implantada de atenção domiciliar tipo 2 e tipo 3; 3. Municípios com 50% do teto de implantação de equipes de serviço de atenção domiciliar; 4. Tempo de implantação igual ou superior a 12 meses; como covariável dependente o tempo médio de permanência por paciente/dia. Entendendo, que esse tempo médio de permanência está relacionado ao tempo que o paciente permanece aguardando leito de internação, ligado diretamente a eficiência da rede de atenção de urgência em racionalizar os leitos existentes na rede. Como método de estudo escolheu-se o Controle Sintético, que propõe a construção de uma contrafactual, com o objetivo de determinar os efeitos causados pelo programa na capacidade de aliviar a porta de urgência, relacionada ao tempo médio de permanência. A análise por este método se deu por ser um método aplicado em estudos com amostras reduzidas e com apenas uma ou poucas unidades tratadas. Tratasse, exatamente, do caso do nosso estudo, no qual temos apenas 15 municípios tratados e 47 serviços de atenção domiciliar implantados no estado. Os resultados obtidos com o estudo demonstrou que Política Nacional de Atenção domiciliar, ainda é um processo em construção no estado, contudo aponta a potencialidade da política como uma 'porta saída' qualificada frente ao cenário caótico da rede de urgência do estado, no tocante a racionalização de leitos.

The most remote references in medicine already described home care. The utilization as a space for health care has expanded worldwide in recent years. decades. This trend in many countries around the world was motivated by the need rationalize the use of hospital beds due to problems related to inefficiency, inefficiency and increasing demand for health care, demographic and epidemiological changes. In this perspective, this study proposes to evaluate the National Home Care Policy regarding the average length of stay for patient / day in the urgency and emergency network in Pernambuco between 2013 and 2016. The period established in the research is justified by the fact that the years focus on the publication Ministry of Health Ordinance No. 963 in 2013 that "Redefines Home Care in Health System (SUS) ", and the publication of the Ministry of Health 825 in 2016 which also "Redefines Home Care within the Unified Health System Health (SUS) and updates the qualified teams ". For this study we considered for the sample: 1. Municipalities with numbers of inhabitants above 20 thousand, correlating with the who have qualified home care services; 2. Municipalities with at least one implemented type 2 and type 3 home care team; 3. Municipalities with 50% of the ceiling of implementation of home care service teams; 4. Deployment time equal to or over 12 months; as covariate dependent the average length of stay per patient / day.

The remotest references in medicine already described home-based care. The use of the home as a space for health care has expanded worldwide in the last decades. This tendency in several countries around the world was motivated by the need to rationalize the use of hospital beds, due to problems related to inefficiency, ineffective, and increasing demand in health care, along with demographic and epidemiological changes. In this perspective, this study proposes to evaluate the National Home Care Policy regarding the average length of stay per patient / day in the emergency and urgency network in Pernambuco between 2013 and 2016. The period established in the research is justified by the fact of the years with the publication of the Ministry of Health Ordinance No. 963 in 2013, which "Redefines Home Care under the Unified Health System ", and the publication of Ministry of Health Ordinance No. 825 in 2016 which also " Redefines Home Care within the Unified Health System and updates the teams authorized ". For this study, we considered for the sample: 1. Counties with a population of more than 20 thousand, correlating with those who have able care services; 2. Counties with at least one implanted type of home care type two and type three; 3. Counties with 50% of the ceiling for the implementation of home care service teams; 4. Time of implantation of 12 months or more; as covariate dependent the mean residence time per patient / day. Understanding, that this average time of permanence is related to the time that the patient remains waiting for bed of hospitalization, directly linked to the efficiency of the emergency care network in rationalizing the existing beds in the network. As a method of study we chose Synthetic Control, which proposes the construction of a counterfactual, in order to determine the effects caused by the program on the ability to relieve the emergency door, related to the average time of permanence. The analysis by this method was given as a method applied in studies with reduced samples and with only one or a few treated units. It was exactly the case of our study, in which we have only 15 treated municipalities and 47 home care services implanted in the state. The results obtained from the study demonstrated that the National Policy on Home Care is still a process under construction in the state, but points out the potential of the policy as a qualified 'exit door' in the chaotic scenario of the emergency network of the state, regarding rationalization of beds.

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Dados do Ministério da Saúde indicam que o Estado de Pernambuco, está entre os estados que apresentam prevalência média mais elevada. No ano de 2011, visando reduzir a prevalência de doenças consideradas negligenciadas e melhorar seus indicadores, entre elas a esquistossomose, o Estado de Pernambuco criou o Programa SANAR. A partir de critérios epidemiológicos, os municípios foram selecionados como prioritários para o desenvolvimento das ações. Nesses municípios, as ações de controle da esquistossomose foram intensificadas, com maior aporte de recursos financeiros, apoio técnico e metodologias diferenciadas de planejamento e rotinas do PCE tradicional. O presente trabalho emprega a estratégia de construção de um controle sintético com base nas obras de Abadie e Gardeazabal (2003) e Abadie et al. (2010) para obtenção de uma estimativa do impacto do Programa SANAR sobre o controle da esquistossomose no estado de Pernambuco, mensurada por 2 indicadores operacionais do programa. Foram selecionados 7 municípios prioritários para o agravo, pertencentes à XII regional de Saúde do Estado de Pernambuco. A partir da seleção, foram obtidos os contrafactuais para cada município, obtendo assim as trajetórias real e sintética dos indicadores. Após as análises, foram identificadas melhorias nos indicadores operacionais dos municípios que implantaram o Programa SANAR, quando comparados com a trajetória dos mesmos, sem a intervenção. Por fim, um teste placebo foi realizado para dar confiabilidade aos resultados.(AU)

Ministry of Health indicate that the state of Pernambuco, is among the states that have higher average prevalence. In 2011, to reduce the prevalence of neglected diseases and improve its indicators, including schistosomiasis, the State of Pernambuco created the Program SANAR. From epidemiological criteria, municipalities were selected as priorities for the development of actions. In these municipalities, the schistosomiasis control measures were intensified, with greater investment of financial resources, technical support and different planning methodologies and routines of traditional PCE. This study employs the strategy of building a synthetic control based on the works of Abadie e Gardeazabal (2003) e Abadie et al. (2010) to obtain an estimate of the impact of SANAR program on schistosomiasis control in the state of Pernambuco, measured by 2 indicators operating the program. Were selected seven priority municipalities to health issues, belonging to the XII Regional Health of the State of Pernambuco. From the selection, the counterfactual were obtained for each municipality, thus obtaining the trajectories, real and synthetic, of the indicators. After analysis, improvements have been identified in the operational indicators of the municipalities that have deployed SANAR Program compared to the trajectory of the same, without the intervention. Finally, a placebo test was performed to give reliability to the results.(AU)

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Este trabalho objetivou avaliar o impacto da política de incentivos fiscais ao setor automotivo sobre a mortalidade por acidentes de motocicleta em Pernambuco, entre 2003 e 2011. Através do método de controle sintético foi obtido um contrafactual para a evolução da taxa de mortalidade por acidente de motocicleta, tendo em vista a impossibilidade de observar as taxas de mortalidade por esses acidentes na presença e ausência da política, lançando-se mão das demais causas de mortalidade por causas externas. Os resultados apontam para um crescimento da taxa de mortalidade por acidente de motocicleta, expressando aumento significativo após a implantação da política no final de 2008. Após a intervenção é evidente a divergência com que a evolução segue entre as taxas de motocicleta e sua causa sintética evidenciando o expressivo crescimento das mortes no estado. As demais causas utilizadas como controle apresentam-se seguindo a tendência que seria esperada caso não tivesse ocorrido a intervenção. Portanto, tal disparidade sugere o efeito negativo da política sobre a mortalidade em Pernambuco. As pessoas mais atingidas foram jovens do sexo masculino, com baixa escolaridade e da cor parda. Políticas econômicas pontuais, que gerem um aumento no número de motocicletas circulantes sem que políticas públicas de melhorias das vias e ações intersetoriais de promoção e prevenção a saúde sejam efetivadas, contribuirão para o aumento das mortes no trânsito causadas por motocicletas.(AU)

This study evaluated the impact of the policy of fiscal incentives to the automotive sector on mortality motorcycle accidents between 2003 and 2011. Through the method of synthetic control was obtained a counterfactual for the evolution of mortality rates by motorcycle accident, having in view the impossibility to observe mortality rates by these accidents, in the presence and absence of politics, launching hand from other causes of mortality from external causes. To construct the synthetic procedures employed the remaining causes of death by external factors, other motorcycle accidents. The results indicate a growth rate of mortality from motorcycle accident, expressing significant increase after the implementation of the policy in late 2008. The other causes used as control are shown following the trend that would be expected if the intervention had not taken place. Therefore, such disparity suggests the negative effect of politics on mortality in Pernambuco. People most affected were young males with low schooling and brown color. Individual economic policies that generate an increase in the number of circulating motorcycles without public policies for improvements of roads and intersectoral health promotion and prevention to take effect, will contribute to the increase in traffic deaths caused by motorcycles.(AU)

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