RESUMO
"In this article, a restricted components method is presented (because sex and age are not taken into account) to project the population classified according to the size of the locality.... The application is presented for urban centers (15,000 or more inhabitants) of Mexico in 1990, utilizing the trend in demographic growth for the 1960-1980 period." Data are from Mexican censuses conducted in 1960, 1970, and 1980. (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Assuntos
Geografia , Métodos , Modelos Teóricos , Densidade Demográfica , Crescimento Demográfico , Estatística como Assunto , População Urbana , América , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , América Latina , México , América do Norte , População , Características da População , Dinâmica Populacional , PesquisaRESUMO
The model of demographic transition predicts that in the final stages of the transition, the population will become stationary. However, during the past 20 years or so, the birth rate in the majority of industrialized countries has fallen below the death rate, and a continuation of this trend will ultimately result in a declining population. In the UN recent projections of world population growth, an attempt was made to salve the transition model by assuming that when faced with a reduction in numbers, couples will wholeheartedly respond by increasing their family size. The author presents a theoretical model in which he showed that during the final stages of the transition, it is likely that there are built-in mechanisms which will result in low birth rates, and that it is unlikely that fertility will return to replacement level. In addition to the scenario presented by the UN, there is another in which the birth rate remains below the death rate indefinitely. This catastrophic scenario would ultimately result in the disappearance of the human species. The author presents and compares both of these scenarios. Using some calculations by J.N. Biraben, he calculates the number of humans that would have been born between the beginning and end of the human species, as described by the catastrophic scenario and estimates this to be at 100 billion. In order to end on a more upbeat note, he than imagines a new demographic transition in which biologists have succeeded in extending the duration of a woman's reproductive life. They could then engage in 2 fertile unions during their lifetimes and thus save the species.
Assuntos
Coeficiente de Natalidade , Mortalidade , Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , Reprodução , Demografia , Países Desenvolvidos , Europa (Continente) , Fertilidade , População , Densidade DemográficaRESUMO
PIP: This report estimates the population for July 1, 1980, to 1987 for the Caribbean areas of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the US Virgin islands, the Pacific areas of American Samoa, Guam, and the commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The components of population change for these areas for the 1980-1987 period are also presented. Some highlights of the data follow. 1) All areas except for St. Croix and Puerto Rico are growing at a rate well above that of the US (7.4% from April 1, 1980 to July 1, 1987). 2) The Virgin Islands (population 106,100 in 1987) have shown the highest growth rate (9.8%) since 1980. Growth in St. Thomas and St. John (population 53,600) account for 72% of the total Virgin Islands growth. 3) St. Thomas and St. John together have a net immigration rate of just under 1%; St. Croix (population 52,400) had a net outmigration rate of almost 10%. 4) Puerto Rico (population 3,292,000) experienced a -7.1% net outmigration, and population increase of 95,000. 5) At 23%, Guam (population 130,400) has the largest % population growth; 21% of this growth is due to net immigration. 6) All 3 areas in the Pacific grew in the 7-year period; their overall growth rate was 23%, compared with 3% in the Caribbean areas.^ieng
Assuntos
Coleta de Dados , Publicações Governamentais como Assunto , Características da População , Crescimento Demográfico , Pesquisa , Estatística como Assunto , América , Região do Caribe , Demografia , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Guam , América Latina , Micronésia , América do Norte , Ilhas do Pacífico , Polinésia , População , Dinâmica Populacional , Porto Rico , SamoaRESUMO
PIP: Recent population trends in Brazil are reviewed. The authors note a decline in the rate of growth starting in the 1970s, which is attributable primarily to a decline in fertility that occurred in all regions and in both rural and urban areas. An analysis of changes in spatial distribution is also included. The authors note that the population is becoming increasingly concentrated in densely populated areas of intense economic activity. (summary in ENG)^ieng
Assuntos
Demografia , Economia , Fertilidade , Geografia , Densidade Demográfica , Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , População Rural , Fatores Socioeconômicos , População Urbana , América , Brasil , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , América Latina , População , Características da População , América do SulRESUMO
PIP: Population trends underwent profound changes in Brazil during the last few decades. An important decrease in the rate of population growth was registered in the 1970s. This decrease is attributable to a decline in the level of fertility, which was observed in all regions and in both urban and rural areas. In order to explain this decline, it is necessary to analyze both structural and circumstantial factors related to the political, economic, and social context of the times. Main trends in population redistribution during the 1970s can be regrouped in terms of interregional exchanges and rural-urban migration. A growing convergence between these 2 types of patterns is observed in that population is increasingly being concentrated in densely populated areas of intense economic activities. The implications of these trends for public action are analyzed in the final section.^ieng
Assuntos
Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , População , América , Coeficiente de Natalidade , Brasil , Demografia , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , Emigração e Imigração , Fertilidade , América Latina , Planejamento Social , América do Sul , População Urbana , UrbanizaçãoAssuntos
Agricultura , Eficiência , Emprego , Geografia , Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , Planejamento Social , População Urbana , Urbanização , América , Brasil , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , Características da Família , Fertilidade , Mão de Obra em Saúde , Renda , América Latina , Expectativa de Vida , Mortalidade , População , Características da População , América do SulRESUMO
PIP: It has been empirically verified that the reduction of growth rates in the countries has been prevailingly due to the decline in the gross birth rate. This remarkable birth decrease can be explained by the parallel reduction in the age-specific fertility rate. The most frequently used source in the analysis of chronological variation of age-specific fertility rates is vital statistics, which currently suffer from birth underregistration, a fact that will make it impossible to adequately detect level changes through time. Thus there is the necessity of depending upon indirect methods to determine the coverage of these registers in order to obtain sufficiently reliable age-specific fertility estimates which will permit the detection of these level changes. The present work indicates a procedure for evaluating and adjusting birth statistics using fertility data from Demographic Surveys and Population Censuses, in order to make trends analysis possible. (Author's modified)^ieng
Assuntos
Coeficiente de Natalidade , Coleta de Dados , Estudos de Avaliação como Assunto , Idade Materna , Modelos Teóricos , Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Estatística como Assunto , Ásia , Sudeste Asiático , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Fertilidade , População , Pesquisa , Projetos de Pesquisa , Tailândia , Estatísticas VitaisRESUMO
PIP: Using census data and estimates, the author examines population growth in Latin America during the twentieth century. Retrospective comparisons among countries or larger areas reveal differences in population trends by country or region as well as interrelationships with socioeconomic factors. Natality, mortality, natural increase, internal migration, life expectancy, spatial distribution, and urbanization are considered. (summary in ENG)^ieng
Assuntos
Geografia , Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Coeficiente de Natalidade , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , América Latina , Expectativa de Vida , Mortalidade , População , UrbanizaçãoAssuntos
Censos , Demografia , Publicações Governamentais como Assunto , Mapas como Assunto , Densidade Demográfica , Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , População Urbana , América , Brasil , Países em Desenvolvimento , Geografia , América Latina , População , Características da População , Pesquisa , América do Sul , Estatística como AssuntoRESUMO
PIP: This study of the status of childhood in Latin America and the Caribbean begins with a discussion of the rapid population increase in the region and the effect of the youthful age structure on prospects for further increase. Problems in the spatial distribution of population, the process of economic development, changes in the structure of production and employment and unequal income distribution within countries are the background within which the most serious problems of childhood arise. Categories of children likely to have particularly acute problems are those of the poor, of problem families, of urban squatters, rural dwellers, and indigenous communities. The negative impact of these societal conditions on children is described. Evidence is presented that the problems of children are aggravated by poverty, lack of services and shortcomings of ameliorative policies in such areas as health, nutrition, education, and environmental sanitation. Some observations about future trends in the problems discussed are offered.^ieng