RESUMO
This paper aims to analyze the link between environmental degradation and institutional quality and the price of oil moderated by economic complexity and the underground economy. We use quantile regressions with annual panel data for 15 countries in the Middle East and North Africa during 1995-2021. The findings indicate that institutional quality, economic complexity, and output positively and heterogeneously impact environmental degradation. However, the square of production has a negative impact, confirming an inverted U relationship between production and environmental degradation. Likewise, we find that the price of oil and the underground economy have a negative and heterogeneous impact on environmental degradation. Based on our results, a potential recommendation for policymakers is that the institutional framework of Middle Eastern and North African countries should be accompanied by a more significant concern for the environment instead of prioritizing extractive growth that is detrimental to the environment's environmental sustainability. Likewise, economic diversification will mitigate environmental degradation and improve formal employment. Our findings are relevant to policymakers and researchers interested in promoting ecological sustainability.
Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , África do Norte , Oriente MédioRESUMO
This paper analyzes the impact of international oil price uncertainty on the different economic sectors (primary, secondary, and tertiary) in Mexico in the period 1993:1-2020:4 through a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean to capture the impact of oil volatility on economic growth at the sectoral level of economic activity. The results show that the uncertainty of the international price of oil has a differentiated effect on the different sectors of economic activity in Mexico since it does not influence the primary sector; it negatively impacts the secondary sector, and there is mixed evidence in the tertiary sector. Additionally, evidence is provided that both positive and negative shocks to the international oil price have asymmetric effects at the sectoral level in Mexico. The results highlight the need to implement public policies, at the country level, that help mitigate the effect of uncertainty in the oil market and promote economic stability at the sector level.
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Desenvolvimento Econômico , Indústrias , México , Política Pública , IncertezaRESUMO
For examining the short-run and long-run asymmetric effect of oil prices on stock prices, recent literature uses standard nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. However, this model decomposes oil price series into partial sum of positive and negative changes only and fails to examine the effect of extreme changes in the oil price series on stock prices. This study, therefore, extends the existing literature by focusing on the emerging seven countries, i.e., Brazil, India, Russia, China, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey, and uses multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model. This extended model helps to examine the asymmetric effect of extremely small to extremely large changes in the oil price series on stock prices. The estimates from standard nonlinear ARDL model indicate that, in the short run, oil prices significantly and asymmetrically affect stock prices in the context of Russia, Indonesia, and India only, whereas in the long run, insignificant effect is found for all sample countries. On the contrary, multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model supports asymmetric effect in long run and short run for all sample countries where this effect is stronger in short run. Moreover, all diagnostic tests indicate that this extended model enjoys a better fit and is more stable than the traditional models. The findings, based on this model, provide deeper insights on the relationship between oil prices and stock prices and can be used for investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders.