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BACKGROUND: We assess trends in overdose mortality rates in Mexico from 1999 to 2019 and identify the states with the highest overdose mortality rates over time. METHODS: The analysis using mortality statistics examined deaths related to drug use. We estimated general overdose mortality rates at the national and state levels and calculated specific mortality rates associated with opioid and stimulant use using central rate estimation. We used joinpoint regression to analyse national and state-specific trends in overdose mortality from 1999 to 2019. FINDINGS: Nationally, the general overdose mortality rate increased annually by 10.49 % (p < 0.01, CI=11.4-18.9) from 2015 to 2019. The northern states of Baja California and Chihuahua were the states with the higher annual increases (18.6 %, p < 0.01, CI=4.2-29.6; and 15.6 %, p < 0.01, CI=12.9-19.7, respectively). By substance type, the national opioid-related mortality rate increased by 29.82 % per year from 2014 to 2019 (p < 0.01; CI=20.1-40.3), compared with an annual decrease of 11.43 % in the previous period (2005-2014) (p < 0.01; CI=-14.7- 8.0). Baja California was the state with the highest rise in opioid-related mortality from 2013 to 2019, with an annual increase of 15.84 % (p < 0.01; CI=1.4-32.3). Stimulant-related mortality increased by 21.79 % per year since 2013 (p < 0.01; CI=16.9-26.9), but it was not possible to calculate state-level trends. CONCLUSIONS: Drug-related mortality rates have increased in Mexico since 2015, particularly in the northern states of Baja California, Chihuahua, Sonora and Sinaloa. Improving harm reduction programmes and local surveillance of fatal and non-fatal overdoses is essential to address the silent escalation of overdose mortality.
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Overdose de Drogas , Humanos , México/epidemiologia , Overdose de Drogas/mortalidade , Overdose de Drogas/epidemiologia , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Opioides/mortalidade , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Opioides/epidemiologia , Adulto , Masculino , Feminino , Analgésicos Opioides/intoxicação , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias/mortalidade , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Background Pericardial diseases manifest in various clinical forms, including acute pericarditis, constrictive pericarditis, pericardial effusion, and cardiac tamponade, with acute pericarditis being the most prevalent. These conditions significantly contribute to mortality rates. Therefore, this article aimed to analyze mortality trends in the Brazilian population based on age and sex, shedding light on the impact of pericardial diseases on public health outcomes. Methods This is a retrospective time-series analysis of pericardial disease mortality rates in Brazil (2000-2022). Data was obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS), and the 10th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes: I30, I31, and I32 were included for analysis. We gathered population and demographic data categorized by age range and sex from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Subsequently, we computed the age-standardized mortality rate per 100,000 individuals and assessed the annual percentage changes (APCs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) using joinpoint regression, along with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results In terms of mortality trends based on sex, overall mortality rates remained stable for males and combined sexes over the study period. However, there was a notable increase in mortality rates among females (AAPC=1.18), particularly between 2020 and 2022, with a significant APC of 27.55. Analyzing pericardial diseases across different age groups (20 to 80 years and above), it wasobserved that mortality rates significantly increased in the 70-79 and 80 years and above age groups throughout the study period (AAPC=1.0339 and AAPC=3.4587, respectively). These two age groups experienced the highest significant rise in mortality between 2020 and 2022. Other age groups did not exhibit a significant change in AAPC. Conclusions This comprehensive analysis spanning two decades (2000-2022), examined the mortality trends of pericardial diseases in Brazil and revealed relative stability overall. Males exhibited an overall higher mortality number due to pericardial diseases; however, females showed the most significant increase in mortality trend throughout the whole period. In the first segment (2000-2015), mortality rose across all cohorts, which was attributed to substandard healthcare facilities and infectious diseases like tuberculosis. The second segment (2016-2020) saw a decline in mortality, likely due to improved healthcare, particularly the increased availability of echocardiograms. However, the third segment (2020-2022) witnessed a sharp rise in mortality, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, with post-COVID-19 symptoms, particularly pericarditis. Pericarditis-related death rates declined compared to pericardial effusion, and mortality rates correlated directly with age, with older cohorts experiencing higher mortality due to increased comorbidities, and decline in health and immunocompetency.
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BACKGROUND: Childhood leukemia (CL) is the most prevalent form of pediatric cancer on a global scale. However, there is a limited understanding of the dynamics of CL incidence in South America, with a specific knowledge gap in Colombia. This study aimed to identify trends in CL incidence and to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the risk of leukemia incidence in this population. METHODS: Information on all newly diagnosed leukemia cases (in general and by subtype) among residents aged 0-18 years and living in the serving areas of population-based cancer registries of Cali (2008-2017), Bucaramanga (2000-2017), Manizales (2003-2017), and Pasto (1998-2018). Estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in incidence over time and potential changes in the slope of these EAPCs were calculated using joinpoint regression models. The effects of age, period, and cohort in CL incidence trends were evaluated using age-period-cohort models addressing the identifiability issue through the application of double differences. RESULTS: A total of 966 childhood leukemia cases were identified. The average standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leukemia was calculated and expressed per 100,000 person-years - observing ASIR of 4.46 in Cali, 7.27 in Bucaramanga, 3.89 in Manizales and 4.06 in Pasto. Concerning CL trends there were no statistically significant changes in EAPC throughout the different periods, however, when analyzed by leukemia subtype, statistically significant changes were observed in the EAPC for both ALL and AML. Analysis of age-period-cohort models revealed that age-related factors significantly underpin the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in these four Colombian cities. CONCLUSIONS: This study offers valuable insights into the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in four major Colombian cities. The analysis revealed stable overall CL incidence rates across varying periods, predominantly influenced by age-related factors and the absence of cohort and period effects. This information is useful for surveillance and planning purposes for CL diagnosis and treatment in Colombia.
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Leucemia , Neoplasias , Criança , Humanos , Incidência , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Efeito de Coortes , Sistema de Registros , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Leucemia/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a public health concern in Brazil, with deleterious effects on quality of life and increasing mortality rates. The prevalence of diabetes in Brazil is on the rise, and it is imperative to understand its effects on mortality rates in the last two decades in order to effectively mitigate the detrimental impact of diabetes on public health. This study aims to analyze mortality trends related to diabetes in Brazil from 2000 to 2021, encompassing both type 1 and type 2 diabetes, across sex and various age cohorts. Using joinpoint regression analysis, temporal trends in Brazil were assessed, while also incorporating findings from previous studies and considering potential influencing factors, such as government initiatives and cuts in healthcare investment. The study revealed a general upward trend in mortality rates associated with DM1 and DM2 over the study period, in both males and females, with men showing a higher AAPC (average annual percent change), which translated into significantly increased mortality difference at the end of the study. Additionally, it revealed elevated mortality values for extreme age groups in the age cohorts studied, with the exception of middle-aged cohort groups in DM2, which showed an expected higher APC (annual percent change), considering the age of highest incidence of DM2 in those age groups. This comprehensive analysis provides critical insights into the escalating impact of diabetes on mortality rates in Brazil and highlights the urgent need for healthcare strategies. It is expected that the increased prevalence of diabetes in the Brazilian population adds an additional economic burden to healthcare expenditure by the Brazilian government, further worsening the health disparities among different social groups. Unless several political decisions to reduce healthcare expenditure are reversed, greater difficulties in accessing treatments will be detrimental for vulnerable social groups in Brazil. By understanding the nuanced patterns of diabetes-related mortality, healthcare providers and policymakers can allocate resources effectively and implement tailored interventions to better address diabetes in Brazil.
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Background Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a chronic cardiovascular condition stemming from an infectious origin, posing a substantial health burden, particularly in economically disadvantaged regions. It starts with acute rheumatic fever (ARF), a complication following group A Streptococcus infection, leading to heart valve damage and, over time, structural heart abnormalities. RHD contributes to premature deaths, especially in low-middle-income countries. Although the incidence and prevalence have generally reduced globally due to antibiotics and improved healthcare, it remains a significant public health concern in Brazil, echoing its prevalence in many developing nations around the world. RHD stands as a poignant testament to the intersection of socio-economic disparities and healthcare challenges within Brazil's diverse population. In Brazil, despite advancements in healthcare, RHD continues to impact communities, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced prevention strategies, access to quality healthcare services, and heightened awareness to combat this preventable, yet persistent, cardiac condition. Understanding the epidemiological landscape and socio-cultural factors influencing RHD in Brazil is crucial for developing targeted interventions aimed at mitigating its burden on individuals, families, and the healthcare system at large. Thus, our study focuses on analyzing age-related mortality rates linked to ARF and chronic RHD (ARHD) in Brazil from 2000 to 2021, particularly examining gender disparities. Materials and methods This retrospective cohort study employed a descriptive time-series approach, utilizing comprehensive nationwide data from Brazil spanning from 2000 to 2021 to assess trends in diverse age groups, among both sexes, enabling a detailed analysis of temporal patterns. Mortality data, extracted and categorized meticulously, were subjected to Joinpoint statistical analyses enabling comparative assessments, with average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) serving as key metrics to quantify and interpret trends over the analyzed period. Results The acute RHD (ARHD)-related mortality declined over the analyzed years supported by AAPC, with higher mortality reduction in females. The age-adjusted mortality rate for "males and females" decreased from 78 to 67 deaths/100,000 from 2000 to 2021. Female mortality dropped from 85 to 69/100,000, and male mortality decreased from 73 to 63/100,000 over the same period. For ARHD, male age groups (20-29, 60-69, 70-79, 80+) showed declining mortality, while the 30-59 age group exhibited an upward. Females AAMR for chronic RHD (CRHD) decreased across all age groups, with significant reductions in the 80 years and above age group from 2000-2002 (APC: -11.94*) and steadily from 2002 onwards (APC: -1.33). Conclusions Our study revealed an overall decline in mortality rates for both acute and CRHD across both sexes. Females consistently exhibited higher mortality rates and a more pronounced reduction compared to males in both acute and CRHD. In ARHD, males experience the highest mortality in the 50-59 age group, while females have a peak in the 40-49 age group. The 60-69 age group had the highest mortality in CRHD for both sexes. Conversely, the 20-29 age group displayed the lowest mortality in CRHD, and the 80-89 age group had the lowest mortality in ARHD.
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OBJECTIVE: The present study aims to assess the mortality trends in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in Spain from 1980 to 2021. METHODS: Deaths and mid-year population data were collected from the National Institute of Statistics. We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 person-years for all ages and ages 35-64. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in mortality trends. The independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDS mortality were also examined. RESULTS: MDS-related deaths gradually increased from 36 in 1980 to 1118 in 2021, with an overall increase of 6.6% in age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for both men and women. Joinpoint analysis identified four periods for both men and women: 1980-1987 (stable rates), 1987-1990 (sharp increase), 1990-1999 (slower increase) and 1999-2021 (stable rates). ASMRs (35-64 years) increased by 2.5% over the study period, with a turning point identified in 1996 when rates decreased. Mortality from MDS increases with age and is higher in men. The cohort's relative risk increased until the mid-1950s and then stabilised, whilst the period relative risk increased between 1982 and 1996 and then stabilised. CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate a progressive increase in MDS-related deaths in Spain between 1980 and 2021. Notably, this increase was more pronounced in men than in women. Analysis of birth cohort trends revealed shifts in MDS risk, characterised by an increase until the mid-twentieth century, followed by a stabilisation. Using joinpoint analysis, four distinct periods were identified, shedding light on the changing patterns of mortality over time. These findings help to shape future research directions and inform public health strategies. They also provide optimism for advances in MDS treatment and potential reductions in mortality.
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Síndromes Mielodisplásicas , Procedimentos de Cirurgia Plástica , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Espanha/epidemiologia , MortalidadeRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the disease burden and trends of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in Mexico from 1990 to 2019. METHOD: A cross-sectional study using systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD study 2019) was performed to analyze data on MSK disorders and estimate crude and age-standardized rates per 100,000 population concerning disease prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), and years lived with disability (YLD). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using the joinpoint regression. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 4.8 million (95% UI 4.3, 5.4) new cases and 3,312 (95% UI 2201, 4,790) deaths attributable to MSK disorders. In 2019, MSK disorders ranked first, increasing from 1990 (second rank) for the YLD in Mexico. Subnational variations were identified, with the state of Oaxaca having the highest age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) per 100,000 population in 2019. Joinpoint analysis revealed a significant increase in prevalence in Mexico from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC: 0.14%; 95%CI 0.09-0.19), incidence (AAPC: 0.05%; 95%CI 0.03-0.07), DALY (AAPC: 0.13%; 95%CI 0.04-0.22), and YLD (AAPC: 0.13%; 95%CI 0.02-0.24). Among the risk factors, occupational ergonomic factors and high body mass index (BMI) had the largest influence on MSK disorders. CONCLUSIONS: In Mexico, we observed an increase the national burden of MSK disorders from 1990 to 2019. Specific determinants, such as occupational ergonomic factors and high BMI, contribute to the MSK disorder burden. The burden of MSK disorders requires an improved and prompt assessment to plan valuable diagnostic and management approaches. Key Points ⢠In Mexico, the burden of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders increased from 1990 to 2019. ⢠Specific risk factors, such as occupational ergonomic factors and high body mass index, contribute to the MSK disorder burden.
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Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Doenças Musculoesqueléticas , Humanos , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , México/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Doenças Musculoesqueléticas/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Background Cerebrovascular disease is the second leading cause of death and the third leading cause of disability following heart disease. In 2019, there were over 101 million people living with a stroke and 12.2 million incidents of stroke globally. For the past three decades, stroke has remained the leading cause of death in Brazil, causing over 100,000 fatalities annually, along with numerous functional impairments among those who survive. The Brazilian healthcare system has witnessed notable advancements in the last decade, including the establishment of additional hospitals and a rise in the count of healthcare professionals specializing in cardiovascular and neurological surgery. However, there exists a gap in the research landscape for continuous comprehensive studies aimed at exploring the evolving mortality rates related to cerebrovascular diseases, of which the last one included data up to 2019. This study aimed to address this gap by meticulously analyzing the trends in cerebrovascular disease mortality in Brazil from 2000 to 2021, for the variables age, sex, state of residence, and geographic region. Methods This is a descriptive, ecological, and time series study. Nationwide data for annual cerebrovascular mortality from Brazil were used for the period 2000-2021. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) by direct standardization, encompassing people above 20 years of age, were calculated and expressed per 100,000 persons. Mortality trends were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis by calculating the annual percentage change (APC) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) across categories of age, sex, and state and region of residence. Results The mortality rates decreased for the sex categories over the analyzed years. The AAMR for the categories decreased as follows: males and females (95 deaths/100,000 to 52 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), males (108 deaths/100,000 to 63 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), and females (83 deaths/100,000 to 44 deaths/100,000 inhabitants). The most substantial reduction in AAMR for males occurred in the 30-39-year age group (APC: -4.10), while the smallest decline was observed in the 20-29-year age group (APC: -1.44). All five macro-regions demonstrated statistically significant and downward AAPC values in mortality rates. The south and midwest regions decreased at a stable rate, as denoted by the same APC and AAPC values (-4.05 and -3.11, respectively). The north and northeast regions exhibited an increase in AAMR, followed by a decrease (APC: 0.68 to -1.42 and 2.63 to -2.35, respectively). Conclusions Our comprehensive analysis revealed a downward trend in cerebrovascular disease mortality rates across diverse demographic groups and macro-regions. Females experienced a more substantial reduction compared to males. Despite higher mortality rates among individuals aged 50 and above, all age groups displayed a marked decrease. The continuous decline can be attributed to policy interventions aimed at enhancing healthcare delivery, increased awareness, and healthier diets and lifestyles. With regard to the macro-regions, the regions in the southern zone demonstrated a more significant decrease as compared to the northern part. In Brazil, a more significant decline in cerebrovascular disease mortality rates could be achieved through increased focus on prevention measures and efforts toward mitigating disparities and inequalities between macro-regions.
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Background: In latest decades, mortality rates from ischemic heart disease (IHD) had declined steadily in most of the world as a consequence of improvements in prevention and therapy. Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze trends in mortality caused by IHD in the region of the Americas from 2000 to 2019. Methods: Estimates of the age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) due to IHD were extracted from the Data Portal on Noncommunicable Diseases, Mental Health, and External Causes (ENLACE), Pan American Health Organization. We used Joinpoint regression to analyze significant changes in mortality trends by country, gender, geographical sub-region, and country income, according to the World Bank classification. We also calculated the average annual percent change (AAPC) mortality rate for the overall period in the Americas as a whole and by country and sub-region. Results: In the region of the Americas, the AAMR from IHD decreased from 117.80 (95% uncertainty interval (UI)) 106.64-135.90) in 2000 to 73.64 (62.65-92.66) per 100,000 in 2019. In males, from 149.08 (95% UI 138.23-168.08) to 96.02 (95% UI 83.48-117.19) and in females 92.36 (95% UI 81.35-109.42) to 54.84 (95% UI 45.28-71.76). The AAPC mortality rate in the region decreased -2.5% (95% CI: -2.7, -2.3), with joinpoints in 2007 and 2012, -2.3% (95% CI: -2.5, -2.1) in men and -2.7% (95% CI: -3.0, -2.5) in women. According to the sub-region analysis, the highest decrease was recorded in North America, AAPC -3.1% (95% CI: -3.3, -3.0) with one joinpoint in 2011, whereas there was a stagnation of the mortality rate in Central America, Mexico, and Latin Caribbean with an AAPC of 0.1 (-0.2, 0.3) with one joinpoint in 2007. Conclusions: Age-adjusted mortality rate from IHD between 2000 and 2019 has decreased in the region of the Americas. However, different trends were observed, North America had the highest reduction in AAPC, while Central America, Mexico, and Latin Caribbean Region had a stagnation. This trend was highly influenced by country income.
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Isquemia Miocárdica , América/epidemiologia , Região do Caribe , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , México , Mortalidade , América do NorteRESUMO
Background: Stroke is the second largest single cause of death and disability in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). There have been large overall declines in stroke mortality rates in most LAC countries in recent decades. Objective: To analyze trends in mortality caused by stroke in LAC countries in the period 1979-2015. Methods: We extracted data for age-standardized stroke mortality rates per 100,000 in LAC for the period 1979-2015 from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trends and compute the annual percent change (APC) in LAC as a whole and by country. Analyses were conducted by gender, region and World Bank income classification. Results: Mortality from stroke has decreased in LAC over the study period by an average APC of -1.9%. Most countries showed significant downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in Chile, Colombia and Uruguay. We recorded statistically significant decreases of -1.4% and -2.4% in mortality rates in men and women, respectively, in the whole LAC. Southern and high-income countries showed the steepest decreases. Conclusions: Stroke mortality has decreased in LAC, in both sexes, especially in southern and high-income countries. Our results could serve as a reference for the development of primary prevention and acute management of stroke policies focused on countries with higher mortality.
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Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Região do Caribe/epidemiologia , Bases de Dados Factuais , Etnicidade , Feminino , Humanos , América Latina/epidemiologia , Masculino , MortalidadeRESUMO
Introduction: The frequency of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is lower than it should be in several regions of the world. It is unclear what interventions can produce significant improvements in IVT utilization. We aimed to investigate the temporal trends in IVT in AIS and identify changes in time that could be associated with specific interventions. Methods: We included patients with AIS who were admitted from January 1998 to December 2019 in our institution. To analyze trends in utilization and time points in which they changed, we performed a Joinpoint regression analysis. Interventions were assigned to a specific category according to the Behavior Change Wheel framework intervention function criteria. Results: A total of 3,361 patients with AIS were admitted, among which 538 (16%) received IVT. There were 245 (45.5%) women, and the mean age and median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores were 68.5 (17.2) years and 8 (interquartile range, 4-15), respectively. Thrombolysis use significantly increased by an average annual 7.6% (95% CI, 5.1-10.2), with one Joinpoint in 2007. The annual percent changes were.45% from 1998 to 2007 and 9.57% from 2007 to 2019, concurring with the stroke code organization, the definition of door-to-needle times as an institutional performance measure quality indicator, and the extension of the therapeutic window. Conclusions: The IVT rates consistently increased due to a continuous process of protocol changes and multiple interventions. The implementation of a complex multidisciplinary intervention such as the stroke code, as well as the definition of a hospital quality control metric, were associated with a significant change in this trend.
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Abstract: Objective: To examine overall, sex, and state-specific liver cancer mortality trends in Mexico. Materials and methods: Joinpoint regression was used to examine the trends in age-standardized mortality rates of liver cancer between 1998-2018. Estimated annual percent change with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were computed. Age-period-cohort models were used to assess the effects of age, calendar year, and birth cohort. Results: The state-specific mortality rates ranged from 3.34 (Aguascalientes) to 7.96 (Chiapas) per 100 000 person-years. Sex-specific rates were roughly equal, nationwide. Overall, we observed a statistically significant decrease in liver cancer mortality rates between 1998-2018 (annual percent change, -0.8%; 95%CI -1.0, -0.6). The overall age-period-cohort models suggest that birth cohort may be the most important factor driving the trends. Conclusions: While there was overall decline in liver cancer mortality, differences in rates by region were observed. The regional differences may inform future studies of liver cancer etiology across the country.
Resumen: Objetivo: Examinar la tendencia general, por sexo y estado, de mortalidad por cáncer hepático en México. Material y métodos: Se utilizó regresión joinpoint para examinar las tendencias en las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por edad de cáncer hepático (1998-2018). Se estimó el cambio porcentual anual con intervalos de confianza al 95% (IC95%). Se usaron modelos de edad-periodo-cohorte para evaluar el efecto de edad, año calendario y cohorte de nacimiento. Resultados: La mortalidad osciló entre 3.34 (Aguascalientes) y 7.96 (Chiapas) por 100 000 años-persona. La mortalidad por sexo fue relativamente similar a nivel nacional. La mortalidad general disminuyó entre 1998-2018 (cambio porcentual anual, -0.8%; IC95% -1.0, -0.6). La cohorte de nacimiento parece ser el factor más importante que afecta las tendencias. Conclusiones: A pesar de la disminución de mortalidad por cáncer hepático, se observó variación regional en las tasas. Estas diferencias podrían informar estudios futuros sobre la etiología de cáncer hepático en México.
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BACKGROUND: Brazil is a signatory to the World Health Organization End TB Strategy and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This study aims to characterize tuberculosis (TB) deaths and TB mortality rates in Brazil for the period 1997-2017. METHODS: We performed an ecological study based on information for TB deaths between 1997 and 2017 extracted from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Data included gender, age group and geographic regions. The trends in mortality rates were estimated using Joinpoint regression analysis, which identifies years in which there is a change in slope of the time series by the Monte Carlo permutation. RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2017 there were 104 172 recorded TB deaths in Brazil and the mortality rates were higher for men and the elderly. The age-adjusted mortality rate decreased from 4.2 per 100 000 in 1997 to 3.0 per 100 000 in 2003 to 2.0 per 100 000 in 2017. The average percentage reduction from 1997 to 2003 was 6.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] -7.7 to -4.7) per year, while from 2003 to 2017 it was 3.0% (95% CI -3.4 to -2.5) per year, representing a slowdown in the rate of decline. CONCLUSION: The high number of deaths and the slowdown in the decline of mortality rates from TB in Brazil maintain the disease as an important public health concern and an obstacle to reaching goals set by international commitments.
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Tuberculose , Idoso , Brasil/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Mortalidade , Saúde Pública , Análise de Regressão , Organização Mundial da SaúdeRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is the second largest single cause of death in Europe, responsible for 9% and 13% of all deaths in men and women, respectively. There have been large overall declines in stroke mortality rates in the majority of European countries in recent decades. The aim of this study was to analyse trends in mortality caused by stroke in the 28 member countries of the European Union (EU) over the last two decades. METHODS: We extracted data for age-standardized stroke mortality rates per 100 000 in the EU for the period 1996-2015 from the World Health Organization database. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyse the trends and compute the annual percent change (APC) in the EU as a whole and by country. Analyses were conducted by gender and by European region. RESULTS: Mortality from stroke has decreased in the EU over the study period by an average APC of 4.2%. All countries showed downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in Estonia, Portugal and Austria. We recorded statistically significant decreases of 4.2% and 4.3% in mortality rates in men and women, respectively, in the whole EU. Southern and western countries showed the steepest decreases, whereas mortality has increased in northern countries in recent years. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke mortality has decreased in the EU, in both sexes, especially in southern and western European countries. Our results could be a reference for the development of primary prevention and acute management of stroke policies focused on countries with higher mortality.
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Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Distribuição por Idade , Bases de Dados Factuais , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , União Europeia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , MortalidadeRESUMO
OBJETIVE: To analyze the trends of COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020 by Federal Units (FU). METHOD: Ecological time-series based on cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 from March 11 to May 12. Joinpoint regression models were applied to identify points of inflection in COVID-19 trends, considering the days since the 50th confirmed case as time unit. RESULTS: Brazil reached its 50th confirmed case of COVID-19 in 11 March 2020 and, 63 days after that, on May 12, 177,589 cases had been confirmed. The trends for all regions and FU are upward. In the last segment, from the 31st to the 63rd day, Brazil presented a daily percentage change (DPC) of 7.3% (95%CI= 7.2;7.5). For the country the average daily percentage change (ADPC) was 14.2% (95%CI: 13.8;14.5). The highest ADPC values were found in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, our results show that all FUs in Brazil present upward trends of COVID-19. In some FUs, the slowdown in DPC in the last segment must be considered with caution. Each FU is at a different stage of the pandemic and, therefore, non-pharmacological measures should be adopted accordingly.
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Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Brasil/epidemiologia , COVID-19 , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias , Análise de Regressão , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis is a leading indication for liver transplantation (LT) worldwide. Access to effective HCV treatment is inequitable globally. We aimed to analyze whether the introduction of effective HCV treatment caused an impact in LT trends in a middle-income country. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of all adult patients who were listed/received a LT in Argentina for HCV, alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), or autoimmune hepatitis/primary biliary cirrhosis (AIH/PBC) from 2007 to 2017. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify changes in the cumulative incidence rates in waiting list (WL) registration, WL mortality, and LT. RESULTS: Liver transplantation WL for HCV increased significantly between 2007 and 2014, with an annual percentage change (APC) +7.8%, P = .01, followed by a downward slope from 2014 to 2017 with an APC -9.8%, P = .1. There were no significant changes in WL mortality. LT trends remained stable. LT for HCV without MELD exception points for HCC decreased (APC -6.6%, P = .01), whereas LT for HCV with HCC exception points increased (APC +11.1, P = .01) during the study period. CONCLUSION: Waiting list and LT for HCV without HCC decreased, whereas LT for HCV and HCC increased; this may be related to selective antiviral treatment access for patients with advanced fibrosis.
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Antivirais , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/cirurgia , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Hepatite C/cirurgia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/cirurgia , Transplante de Fígado/tendências , Adolescente , Adulto , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/epidemiologia , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/virologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Seguimentos , Sobrevivência de Enxerto , Hepacivirus/isolamento & purificação , Hepatite C/complicações , Hepatite C/virologia , Humanos , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/virologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Fatores de Risco , Adulto JovemRESUMO
In the past 16 years, a variety of factors might have impacted traffic accidents in Chile. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in traffic morbi-mortality. Overall death and injury rates and associated to alcohol per 100,000 inhabitants were monitored between 2000 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate annual percent changes (APCs) and average APCs. Permutation tests were used to determine joinpoints. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The rate of traffic deaths related to alcohol declined from 2006 until 2015 at a rate of 9.53% per year. The rate of traffic injuries related to alcohol decreased at a rate of 4.32% per year since 2008 to 2015. The use of the most sensitive approach to trend analysis brings new ele-ments to form the epidemiological analyses in Chile and similar countries.
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Acidentes de Trânsito , Política de Saúde/tendências , Saúde Pública , Análise de Regressão , Acidentes de Trânsito/mortalidade , Acidentes de Trânsito/estatística & dados numéricos , Acidentes de Trânsito/tendências , Chile/epidemiologia , Humanos , Método de Monte Carlo , Ferimentos e Lesões/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Neglected Tropical Diseases are a set of communicable diseases that affect the population so low socioeconomic status, particularly 1.4 billion people who are living below the poverty level. This study has investigated the magnitude and mortality time trends for these diseases in the state of Sergipe, Northeast Region of Brazil. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study of time series, based on secondary data derived from the Mortality Information System of the Ministry of Health. The mortality rates (crude, age-standardized rates and proportional ratio) were calculated from the deaths due to Neglected Tropical Diseases in the state of Sergipe, from 1980 to 2013. The time trends were obtained using the Joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: Three hundred six thousand and eight hundred seventy-two deaths were certified in the state and Neglected Tropical Diseases were mentioned as the underlying cause in 1,203 certificates (0.39%). Mean number of deaths was 35.38 per year, and crude and age-standardized mortality rates were, respectively: 2.16 per 100 000 inhabitants (95% CI: 1.45-2.87) and 2.87 per 100 000 inhabitants (95% CI: 1.93-3.82); the proportional mortality ratio was 0.41% (95% CI: 0.27-0.54). In that period, Schistosomiasis caused 654 deaths (54.36%), followed by Chagas disease, with 211 (17.54%), and by Leishmaniases, with 142 (11.80%) deaths. The other diseases totalized 196 deaths (16.30%). There were increasing mortality trends for Neglected Tropical Diseases, Schistosomiasis and Chagas disease in the last 15 years, according to the age-standardized rates, and stability of the mortality trends for Leishmaniases. CONCLUSIONS: The Neglected Tropical Diseases show increasing trends and are a real public health problem in the state of Sergipe, since they are responsible for significant mortality rates. The following diseases call attention for showing greater number of deaths in the period of study: Schistosomiasis, Chagas disease and Leishmaniases. We finally suggest that public managers take appropriate actions to develop new strategies in epidemiological and therapeutic surveillance, and in the follow-up of these patients.
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Doença de Chagas/mortalidade , Leishmaniose/mortalidade , Doenças Negligenciadas/mortalidade , Esquistossomose/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Brasil/epidemiologia , Doença de Chagas/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Leishmaniose/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Doenças Negligenciadas/epidemiologia , Esquistossomose/epidemiologia , Análise de Sobrevida , Clima Tropical , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Recent efforts to reduce malaria incidence have had some successes. Nevertheless, malaria persists as a significant public health problem in the Brazilian Amazon. The objective of this study was to describe changes in malaria case characteristics and to identify trends in malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. This study used data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance and Case Notification Information System from 2004 to 2013. The annual parasite incidence (API) was calculated and joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in API over time. There was a sharp increase in API in the state of Acre, followed by two periods of decrease. Pará also presented inconsistent decreases over the study period. Amapá, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Roraima showed statistically significant decreases over the period. The sharpest decrease occurred in Rondônia, with a reduction of 21.7% in the average annual percent change (AAPC) (AAPC: -21.7%; 95% confidence interval: -25.4%, -17.8%; p < 0.05). This panorama of malaria incidence highlights the importance of integrating evidence-based malaria surveillance and control. Malaria is highly preventable, and eliminating its transmission should be a goal in coming decades.
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Humanos , Animais , Feminino , Recém-Nascido , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Criança , Adolescente , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Incidência , Insetos Vetores , Malária/epidemiologia , Anopheles , Brasil/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Introdução: Leucemia é o câncer mais comum em crianças e a principal causa de óbito relacionada ao câncer na infância. A sobrevida das crianças com leucemia tem melhorado de forma significativa, entretanto, ainda permanece abaixo de 50% na maioria dos países com recursos limitados. Objetivo: Descrever o perfil epidemiológico, incidência, mortalidade, sobrevida das leucemias agudas e os fatores de risco para o óbito em crianças e adolescentes com leucemia mieloide aguda (LMA) em Pernambuco. Metodologia: a) coorte retrospectiva com crianças e adolescentes (0-19 anos), a partir das informações do Registro de Câncer de Base populacional (RCBP) do Recife (período de 1998 - 2007). As tendências da incidência e da mortalidade foram avaliadas utilizando-se o método Joinpoint. A sobrevida relativa foi calculada, utilizando-se a tábua completa de mortalidade disponível no Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia Estatística (IBGE) para o Brasil em 2010. b) Foram analisados o risco cumulativo de óbito precoce (até 6 semanas do diagnóstico) e a sobrevida global (SG) e livre de eventos (recidiva, segunda neoplasia ou óbito) pelo método de Kaplan Meier para leucemia promielocítica aguda (LPA), LMA da síndrome de Down (LMA-SD) e outros subtipos (exceto LMASD e LPA) e os fatores preditivos para o óbito, por características do diagnóstico utilizando-se a regressão multivariada de Cox, distintamente para leucemia promielocítica aguda (LPA) e para outros subtipos de LMA a partir de uma coorte de crianças diagnosticadas entre 2000-2014 com LMA e acompanhadas no Instituto de Medicina Integral Prof. Fernando Figueira (IMIP). Resultados: a) o estudo de base populacional envolveu 175 casos. A taxa de incidência para leucemias foi de 41,1/milhão de habitantes menores de 20 anos, com pico de incidência de 78,3/milhão na faixa de 1 a 4 anos....
Introduction Leukemia is the most common cancer in children and the leading cause of cancerrelateddeath in childhood, with a variable incidence worldwide. The survival rates for children with leukemia have significantly improved. However, it remains below 50% in most countries with limited resources. Objective The aim of the study was to describe the epidemiological profile, incidence,mortality, survival, and risk factors for death in children and adolescents with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in Pernambuco, Brazil. Methodology Two studies were conducted. a) The first study included a retrospective cohort of children and adolescents aged 019 years, based on the data obtained fromthe population-based cancer registry in Recife (19982007). Joinpoint method was used to evaluate the incidence and mortality trends. The relative survival was calculated using the complete mortality table available at the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística for Brazil in 2010. b) The second study included a cohort of children who were diagnosed with AML between 2000 and 2014 and treated at the Instituto de Medicina Integral Prof. Fernando Figueira - IMIP. The cumulative risk ofearly death (until 6 weeks of diagnosis), overall survival (OS), and event-free survival (EFS) considered as recurrence, second neoplasia, or death for acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL), AML with Down syndrome (AML-DS), and other subtypes (except AML-DS and APL) were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox multivariate regression model was used to identify factors predictive of death, by the characteristics of the diagnosis, distinctly for APL and for the othersubtypes of AML...