RESUMO
This study simulated and evaluated the consequences of possible ethanol leaks in a hypothetical sugarcane biorefinery, considering climatic factors in the region of the State of São Paulo-BR. The Gaussian model was used to obtain the results of the hypothetical scenarios. From these values, an empirical mathematical model was established to describe the behavior of the system within the investigated experimental domain. The results obtained the modeling values of the hypothetical scenarios, the statistical treatment for the two responses-a range, slight damage (R1), and a range, high damage (R2), the joint analyses of variables R1 and R2, and the risk classification of catastrophic events. The consequence analysis allowed the calculation and plotting of graphs, such as the areas of thermal radiation range. Among the variables addressed in the study, the diameter of the leakage hole was the most noticeable in the range of thermal radiation. Therefore, it is relevant to make simulations to prevent hazardous material leakages by applying the exact characteristics of the plant to conduct the procedure.