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Tobacco tax increases, the most cost-effective measure in reducing consumption, remain underutilized in low and middle-income countries. This study estimates the health and economic burden of smoking in Argentina and forecasts the benefits of tobacco tax hikes, accounting for the potential effects of illicit trade. Using a probabilistic Markov microsimulation model, this study quantifies smoking-related deaths, health events, and societal costs. The model also estimates the health and economic benefits of different increases in the price of cigarettes through taxes. Annually, smoking causes 45,000 deaths and 221,000 health events in Argentina, costing USD 2782 million in direct medical expenses, USD 1470 million in labor productivity loss costs, and USD 1069 million in informal care costs-totaling 1.2% of the national gross domestic product. Even in a scenario that considers illicit trade of tobacco products, a 50% cigarette price increase through taxes could yield USD 8292 million in total economic benefits accumulated over a decade. Consequently, raising tobacco taxes could significantly reduce the health and economic burdens of smoking in Argentina while increasing fiscal revenue.
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Produtos do Tabaco , Humanos , Argentina/epidemiologia , Fumar/epidemiologia , Impostos , ComércioRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of the molecular diagnostic method (MM) associated with conventional diagnostic method (CM) compared with the CM alone, for the detection of resistant profile in bacteremia, from the perspective of the Brazilian Public Health System, in intensive care units setting. METHODS: The clinical parameters regarding methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (CRGNB), and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus spp. (VRE) infections were collected from searches on PubMed, Scopus, and SciELO, using specific keywords. Data on direct medical costs to treat these infections were collected according to Brazilian Public Health System perspective from Brazilian databases, in tables of 2018 to 2019. CEA was performed after building a dynamic model, which was calibrated and validated according to international recommendations. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the MM + CM compared with the CM was calculated using the outcomes "avoided death" and "avoided resistant infections." One-way sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: This CEA demonstrated that the MM + CM was dominant in all scenarios. Estimates showed that for MRSA, CRGNB, and VRE infections, every avoided death would lead to savings of Brazilian real (R$) 4.9 million ($937 301), R$2.2 million ($419 899), and R$1.3 million ($248 919), respectively. The same infections assessed by avoided resistant infections savings were projected to be R$24 964 ($4686), R$40 260 ($7558), and R$23 867 ($4480). CONCLUSIONS: MM leads to cost reduction and increased benefits, optimizing the use of financial resources on the health system in the intensive care unit setting, in bacteremia caused by MRSA, CRGNB, and VRE.
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Infecções por Bactérias Gram-Positivas , Staphylococcus aureus Resistente à Meticilina , Infecções Estafilocócicas , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Análise Custo-Benefício , Infecções por Bactérias Gram-Positivas/tratamento farmacológico , Humanos , Infecções Estafilocócicas/diagnóstico , Infecções Estafilocócicas/tratamento farmacológicoRESUMO
Resumen Vivimos en un mundo cuyo modelo económico y político permite y apalanca una irracional acumulación de la riqueza en pocas manos, este fenómeno y sus consecuencias sociales, políticas, culturales y demás, son de obligatoria comprensión y transformación por parte de las Universidades y sus funciones sustantivas: investigación, formación y extensión, éstas particularmente deberían jugar un papel decisivo.
Abstract We live in a world whose economic and political model permits and leverages an irrational wealth accumulation in few hands. This phenomenon and its social, political, and cultural consequences and the like are of required comprehension and transformation on the part of Universities and their substantive functions: research, training, and extension, which should play a decisive role.
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The article is focused on applications of the differential inclusions to the models of economic growth, rather than the model building. The models are taken from the known literature, and some modifications are introduced to reflect an additional inertia. The aim is to treat the uncertainty in the model parameters by using differential inclusions instead of the stochastic approach. The reachable sets for the models are shown, to assess the possible ranges of the outcome with given parameters uncertainty. The approach may be interpreted as a generalization to the system dynamics methodology, providing attainable sets instead of single model trajectory and simple sensitivity analysis. A comparison with Powersim risk analysis is provided. The models of Solow and Swan, Mankiw, Bhattacharya, Romer and Weil are used. A brief review of the models is given, and several examples of simple simulations, differential inclusion applications and optimization are presented.
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BACKGROUND: Community-acquired bacterial pneumonia (CABP) is an acute, lower respiratory bacterial infection. Despite advances in medical care, CABP remains associated with considerable morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs; early empiric treatment is recommended by the Infectious Diseases Society of America and by the American Thoracic Society. Omadacycline is an oral and intravenous (IV) once-daily aminomethylcycline antibiotic that is approved in the United States for the treatment of adult patients with CABP. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the budget impact of introducing omadacycline as a treatment option among patients with suspected or documented CABP from a US hospital perspective. METHODS: A budget impact model was developed in Microsoft Excel® 2010. Population, clinical, and cost inputs were based on the available literature, clinical trial data, and real-world evidence databases. Emergency departments and observation units were assumed to be hospital-owned as part of the analyses. Sensitivity analyses assessed the impact of key parameters on the model results, and scenario analyses were explored to analyze the budget impact of reducing length of hospital stay and avoiding hospitalization. RESULTS: The introduction of omadacycline as a treatment resulted in a total budget increase of $20,643 over 3 years. This increase was mainly attributed to treatment acquisition costs. In a scenario where the length of hospital stay was reduced by 1 day (under the assumption that an antibiotic with IV and oral formulations can facilitate earlier discharge from inpatient care), the 3-year total budget decreased to $2384; reducing the hospital stay by 2 days resulted in 3-year cost-savings of $15,875. Shifting inpatient care to the outpatient setting with omadacycline resulted in 3-year cumulative cost-savings of $112,843. CONCLUSION: This is the first omadacycline budget impact model developed for adult patients with suspected or documented CABP. The model projected a modest budget increase with the introduction of omadacycline, mainly due to treatment acquisition costs.
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The objective of this study was to develop a bio-economic model for the estimation of economic values of economically important traits in a full-cycle beef cattle production system. The bioeconomic model calculated economic values by simulating the impact of changes in the profit of the system consisting of a 1% increase in each trait of the breeding objective, while the other traits were kept constant. The bio-economic model was effective in estimating the sources of revenues and expenses of the production system. The estimated economic values were, in the order of importance for the full-cycle system, R$ 3.69 for male slaughter weight, R$ 3.63 for male weaning weight, R$ 3.58 for weaning rate, R$ 3.40 for female slaughter weight, R$ 2.30 for female weaning weight, and R$ 0.13 for mature cow weight. The results showed that all traits evaluated in the full-cycle system had positive economic impact, indicating that selection would increase profitability maximizing the expected response for the traits of the breeding goal.(AU)
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Animais , Bovinos , Modelos Econômicos , Bovinos/fisiologia , Comportamento Reprodutivo , Bovinos/genéticaRESUMO
The objective of this study was to develop a bio-economic model for the estimation of economic values of economically important traits in a full-cycle beef cattle production system. The bioeconomic model calculated economic values by simulating the impact of changes in the profit of the system consisting of a 1% increase in each trait of the breeding objective, while the other traits were kept constant. The bio-economic model was effective in estimating the sources of revenues and expenses of the production system. The estimated economic values were, in the order of importance for the full-cycle system, R$ 3.69 for male slaughter weight, R$ 3.63 for male weaning weight, R$ 3.58 for weaning rate, R$ 3.40 for female slaughter weight, R$ 2.30 for female weaning weight, and R$ 0.13 for mature cow weight. The results showed that all traits evaluated in the full-cycle system had positive economic impact, indicating that selection would increase profitability maximizing the expected response for the traits of the breeding goal.
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Animais , Bovinos , Bovinos/fisiologia , Bovinos/genética , Comportamento Reprodutivo , Modelos EconômicosRESUMO
Economic values (EVs) of traits, accounting for environmental impacts and risk preferences of farmers, are required to design breeding goals that contribute to both economic and environmental sustainability. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of incorporating environmental costs and the risk preferences of farmers on the EVs of pig breeding goal traits. A breeding goal consisting of both sow efficiency and production traits was defined for a typical Brazilian farrow-to-finish pig farm with 1,500 productive sows. A mean-variance utility function was employed for deriving the EVs at finishing pig level assuming fixed slaughter weight. The inclusion of risk and risk aversion reduces the economic weights of sow efficiency traits (17%) while increasing the importance of production traits (7%). For a risk-neutral producer, inclusion of environmental cost reduces the economic importance of sow efficiency traits (3%) while increasing the importance of production traits (1%). Genetic changes of breeding goal traits by their genetic standard deviations reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and excretions of nitrogen and phosphorus per finished pig by up to 6% while increasing farm profit. The estimated EVs could be used to improve selection criteria and thereby contribute to the sustainability of pig production systems.
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Criação de Animais Domésticos/economia , Cruzamento/economia , Meio Ambiente , Modelos Econômicos , Locos de Características Quantitativas , Suínos/genética , Animais , Brasil , Feminino , Masculino , Gestão de Riscos , Suínos/crescimento & desenvolvimentoRESUMO
Este artículo de investigación, presenta rutas de análisis histórico en torno a los alcances y falencias que dejaron los diálogos de Paz en Colombia entre las Frac-Ep y el Gobierno Nacional durante el siglo XX, el papel que han jugado los medios de comunicación en dichos procesos y una descripción analítica de los discursos de Oslo y la Habana, que dan inicio al actual proceso de Negociación en la Habana; se resalta el profundo alcance que este proceso de negociaciones marca en la última década en Colombia, en lo que concierne a la posible terminación del conflicto armado y la construcción de una paz estable y duradera.
This research article presents routes of historical analysis over the scope and shortcomings left by the talks of peace in Colombia between FARC-EP and theNational government during the twentieth century, as well as the role played by the mass media in those processes and an analytical description of the discourses in Oslo and Havana, initiating the current process of negotiations at Havana; the deep scope of this process of negotiations marks in the last decade in Colombia, is highlighted with regard to the possible termination of the armed conflict and the construction of a stable and lasting peace.
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Conflitos Armados , Democracia , Saúde Mental/classificação , Saúde Mental/economia , Saúde Mental/educação , Saúde Mental/ética , Saúde Mental/históriaRESUMO
Objetivos Analizar, desde la perspectiva del pagador, el costo efectividad de la vacunación contra influenza al personal de salud que tiene contacto estrecho con los pacientes oncológicos hospitalizados en Colombia. Métodos Mediante un árbol de decisión, se identificó la relación de costo-efectividad de la aplicación de esta vacuna al personal de salud que tiene contacto estrecho con los pacientes oncológicos hospitalizados. La perspectiva es la del pagador. Los costos se valoraron en unidades monetarias y la efectividad se mide por la reducción en días de hospitalización de pacientes oncológicos como resultado de la disminución en las probabilidades de contraer el virus por la vacunación al personal de salud. Resultados Vacunar contra la influenza al personal de salud que tiene contacto estrecho con los pacientes oncológicos hace que, al ahorrar un día de estancia hospitalaria, simultáneamente se ahorren $ 2 978 000 (US$ 1 324). Conclusiones Vacunar contra la influenza al personal de salud que tiene contacto estrecho con los pacientes oncológicos es costo efectivo para una probabilidad de contagio del personal de salud que no ha sido vacunado mayor o igual a 0,02.
Objective Performing a cost-effectiveness evaluation of influenza vaccine for health workers coming into close contact with oncological patients from the payer's point of view. Methods As no evidence was found for influenza vaccine effectiveness in oncological patients, the cost-effectiveness of applying the vaccine to health workers coming into close contact with oncological patients was calculated by means of a decision tree; the payer's point of view was adopted. Costs were evaluated in monetary units and effectiveness was measured by the reduction in length of hospital stay for cancer patients as a result of lesser probability of catching the disease because of vaccinating the health workers. Results Vaccinating health workers coming into close contact with cancer patients led to savings of $2 978 000 (US$1 324) per day of stay saved. Conclusions Vaccinating health workers coming into close contact with cancer patients proved cost-effective, returning health worker contagion probability higher than or equal to 0.02.
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Adulto , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pessoal de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Vacinas contra Influenza/economia , Influenza Humana , Neoplasias , Relações Profissional-Paciente , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/economia , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Taxa de SobrevidaRESUMO
PIP: The rapid urban growth and increasing number of megacities in Latin America and other developing countries are fundamentally different phenomena than those observed at the time that location theory was developed. To examine whether existing location theory applies to developing countries, an econometric analysis of the relationship between urbanization, city size, and development was first conducted. The relationship between urbanization and development was expressed in the form of a series of regression analyses applied to World Bank data for 96 developing and developed countries. After logarithmic transformation, a simple equation associating total and total urban population of the country and per capita gross national product was able to explain 93% of the variance in total urban population. This result demonstrates that it is not possible to regard urbanization as abnormal. As to the size of particular cities, deviations from the "normal" trajectory of urbanization apparently originate in particular institutional features of some countries. Manifestations of overurbanization in Latin America demonstrate that urbanization is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition of development. A comparative study of spatial location of employment in different economic sectors in Canada and Mexico was next conducted. For this analysis, cities of over 25,000 population in Canada and Mexico were classified into 32 economic activity sectors, which were regrouped into 18 for the analysis. Two matrixes of ten city types and 18 and 32 employment groups were constructed for each country, with the corresponding number of employees noted. The employment information was transformed into quotients of location, with a quotient above 100 signifying concentration of employment. The results did not suggest that factors of localization of employment are different in developing countries. Models of localization of economic activities adopt analogous characteristics imposed by geography and technological conditions. In Canada as in Mexico, economies of scale and distance are the principle variable explaining models of localization.^ieng
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Demografia , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , Emprego , Modelos Econômicos , Urbanização , América , Canadá , Geografia , América Latina , México , Modelos Teóricos , América do Norte , População , Pesquisa , População UrbanaRESUMO
PIP: Since 1970 the perinatal health (PH) status of the French population has been one of the highest in the world as a resulting of systematic efforts in social and economic development. This article is a case study to determine the reasons for France's success in achieving such a high standard in Ph. The study is a prospective quasi-social experiment and the data was gathered at 3 intervals: 1970, 1976 and 1981. The methodology used was based on the planning process and analyzed the data from both the microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives. The 9 stages of the planning process include the following: 1) definition of the problem; 2) financial and economic costs of PH; 3) identification of causal relationships between cause and effect of the problem; 4) census of resources needed for PH; 5) establishment of policy goals and objectives; 6) categorizing all potential interventions and integrating these into action programs; 7) quantifying the program costs; 8) classifying programs according to cost-efficiency and 9) developing a national policy. The national policy was implemented in France in 1971 with evaluations in 1976 and 1981. The reasons attributed to the successful implementation of this national program in France are: 1) a high degree of social participation and mobilization; 2) a high level of economic prosperity achieved after the 1960's; 3) the basic health needs of the population were met; 4) the existence of a research infrastructure that allowed national and international interventions; and 5) the multidisciplinary and economic focus of the planning process.^ieng
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Proteção da Criança , Economia , Mortalidade Infantil , Modelos Econômicos , Técnicas de Planejamento , Estudos Prospectivos , Pesquisa , Planejamento Social , Demografia , Países Desenvolvidos , Europa (Continente) , França , Saúde , Planejamento em Saúde , Modelos Teóricos , Mortalidade , Organização e Administração , População , Dinâmica PopulacionalRESUMO
PIP: This paper examines the relationship between fertility, female labor force participation, and partnership formation using data collected in the 1975-1976 Jamaican Fertility Survey. Numerous studies in nations of the British Caribbean have documented a positive association between sexual union instability and fertility. These findings disagree with conventional demographic theory. If there is simultaneity between fertility, labor supply, and sexual union formation decisions, as suggested by economic theory, then models of fertility that assume that labor supply and sexual union formation decisions are exogenous are likely misspecified, and this may account for the observed positive association. This possibility was explored by estimating models with ordinary least-squares and 2-stage least-squares regression techniques. The results indicate that the observed positive association between the number of sexual partners and fertility may be spurious as a model that assumes that labor supply and partnership formation decisions are endogenous revealed the expected negative association. Future research aimed at examining the socioeconomic determinants of fertility in Caribbean societies will have to take this possibility into serious consideration.^ieng
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Divórcio , Emprego , Fertilidade , Casamento , Modelos Econômicos , Projetos de Pesquisa , Parceiros Sexuais , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Fatores de Tempo , América , Comportamento , Região do Caribe , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , Jamaica , Modelos Teóricos , América do Norte , População , Dinâmica Populacional , Pesquisa , Comportamento Sexual , Classe SocialRESUMO
PIP: This article develops an economic model for assessing Mexican agricultural migrants' decision to breastfeed in a sample of 137 women in 3 agricultural communities in California. The resulting hypotheses from the model are linked to health care and welfare program access, cultural factors, and employment. Using a probit analysis of the variables, a major finding is that non-traditional practices such as out-of-home child care, birth control, and alcohol use have a negative impact on the probability of breastfeeding. These findings were consistent with the hypothesis that women with more traditional values would be more likely to breastfeed. The authors also found that working women in the sample population were less likely to breastfeed.^ieng
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Aleitamento Materno , Etnicidade , Hispânico ou Latino , Fenômenos Fisiológicos da Nutrição do Lactente , Fenômenos Fisiológicos da Nutrição , Migrantes , Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas , América , Comportamento , California , Cuidado da Criança , Educação Infantil , Comportamento Contraceptivo , Cultura , Tomada de Decisões , Demografia , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , Emigração e Imigração , Emprego , Saúde , Mão de Obra em Saúde , Modelos Econômicos , Modelos Teóricos , América do Norte , População , Características da População , Dinâmica Populacional , Comportamento Sexual , Comportamento Social , Classe Social , Estados UnidosRESUMO
"This article uses within-year apprehensions data to test the economic determinants of Mexican undocumented immigration to the United States. These data are highly seasonal and within-year border patrol apprehensions suggest that this seasonality is not solely due to changes in border patrol enforcement." It is found that both supply and demand variables affect apprehensions and that agricultural factors appear to be important determinants of the variations in apprehensions. The results are similar to those of earlier studies
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Agricultura , Emigração e Imigração , Mão de Obra em Saúde , Modelos Econômicos , Estações do Ano , Fatores de Tempo , Migrantes , América , América Central , Demografia , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , Emprego , América Latina , México , Modelos Teóricos , América do Norte , População , Dinâmica Populacional , Pesquisa , Estados UnidosRESUMO
PIP: The position of the Brazilian government concerning population policy and family planning is described, with an emphasis on changes in such policies during the period 1963-1983. It is also shown how policy and practice concerning family planning have been linked to the evolution of economic development models and to state intervention in health programs. (SUMMARY IN ENG)^ieng
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Economia , Serviços de Planejamento Familiar , Programas Governamentais , Governo , Planejamento em Saúde , Serviços de Saúde , Modelos Econômicos , Política Pública , América , Brasil , Atenção à Saúde , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Saúde , América Latina , Modelos Teóricos , Organização e Administração , Política , Pesquisa , América do SulRESUMO
PIP: This paper is based on the theory that a society's nutritional well-being is both a cause and a consequence of the developmental process within that society. An approach to the choices made by poor rural households regarding food acquisition and nurturing behavior is emerging from recent research based on the new economic theory of household production. The central thesis of this approach is that household decisions related to the fulfillment of basic needs are strongly determined by decisions on the allocation of time to household production activities. Summarized are the results of the estimation of a model of household production and consumption behavior with data from a cross-sectional survey of 30 rural communities in Veraguas Province, Panama. The struture of the model consists of allocation of resources to nurturing activities and to production activities. The resources to be allocated are time and market goods, and in theory, these are allocated according to relative prices. The empirical results of this study are generally consistent with the predictions of the neoclassical economic model of household resource allocation. The major conclusions that time allocations and market price conditions matter in the determination of well-being in low-income rural households and, importantly, that nurturing decisions significantly affect the product and factor market behavior of these households form the basis for a discussion on implucations for agricultural and rural development. Programs and policies that seek nutritional improvement should be determined with explicit recognition of the value of time and the importance of timing in the decisions of the poor.^ieng
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Coleta de Dados , Tomada de Decisões , Economia , Abastecimento de Alimentos , Modelos Econômicos , Modelos Teóricos , Fenômenos Fisiológicos da Nutrição , Pobreza , População Rural , Fatores de Tempo , Agricultura , América , Comportamento , América Central , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Custos e Análise de Custo , Demografia , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Meio Ambiente , Saúde , América Latina , América do Norte , Panamá , População , Características da População , Dinâmica Populacional , Política Pública , Pesquisa , Estudos de Amostragem , Classe Social , Planejamento Social , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
"This study had two main goals. The first was to test the hypothesis that women who work in the informal sector of the labor force have better-nourished children, ceteris paribus, than women who work in the formal sector. A simple home production model for child nutrition incorporating this hypothesis was specified and the behavior of a utility-maximizing household investigated. The empirical estimates of the nutritional status production function provided no convincing support for the hypothesis." The second goal was "to investigate the joint determinants of child nutrition and of women's fertility and work choices....[It is suggested] that increases in women's education and formal sector wages will induce declines in fertility and improvements in child nutrition. Increases in informal sector wages will improve nutrition but have little impact on fertility, and income effects are minimal on all three variables." Data are from a household survey conducted in Nicaragua in 1977 and 1978.
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Fenômenos Fisiológicos da Nutrição Infantil , Proteção da Criança , Tomada de Decisões , Escolaridade , Emprego , Características da Família , Fertilidade , Indicadores Básicos de Saúde , Renda , Modelos Econômicos , Modelos Teóricos , Ocupações , Salários e Benefícios , Classe Social , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Fatores de Tempo , América , Comportamento , América Central , Demografia , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , Saúde , Mão de Obra em Saúde , América Latina , Nicarágua , América do Norte , Fenômenos Fisiológicos da Nutrição , População , Dinâmica Populacional , PesquisaRESUMO
"This study of migration in Mexico is based upon a modified Todaro approach and utilizes census data in a simultaneous equations model of 13 variables. It is unique in several ways: (a) it introduces proxy variables for employment probability and cost of migration that have not heretofore been found in the literature, but for which data are often available; (b) it illustrates that in some important cases census data have advantages not available through surveys; and (c) it finds that in some sense land reform in Mexico may have operated perversely. Finally, the study opens a new avenue for the study of informal sector growth."
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Emigração e Imigração , Emprego , Modelos Econômicos , Modelos Teóricos , Dinâmica Populacional , Agricultura , América , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , América Latina , México , América do Norte , População , Pesquisa , Classe Social , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
PIP: The authors investigate an agriculturally based policy for improving rural incomes and for retarding the rural-urban migration flow. The production of agricultural goods is characterized by a production function in which output increases with increases in agricultural labor inputs, capital, public infrastructure, land, and technology. Differences among regions in agricultural technology will reflect regional differences in education, the institutionalized form of productive organization, and differences in access to technological information channeled through more technically advanced cities. To pick up the effect of out-migration changes in state agricultural labor supply and upon agricultural output, the state's agricultural out-migration rate is included together with the agricultural labor force. The gross migrant flow between 2 locations is hypothesized to depend upon a set of variables influencing the individual's perception of the economic rate of return to be gained by moving, a set of variables reflecting the individual's propensity to relocate, the labor displacement effects of investments, and the at risk population at 1 location available to migrate. It is also taken into account that individuals differ in their response to information about origin and destination wage differentials and that individuals may or may not perceive a new ecnomic gain from migration but may base the decision on other considerations. Results of a statistical analysis using data from the Mexican census of population for 1960 and 1970 are: 1) size of the rural labor force was negatively associated with agricultural wages, contrary to expectations; 2) small farmers have benefited from the expansion of irrigation in Mexico; and 3) higher urban wages attract migration, and higher growth rate of agricultural income retards rural-urban migration. With respect to the 1950-60 decade both agricultural income and rural out-migration impacts could have been substantial but both the impact on local urban growth and on the rate of in-migration to the primate city would have been slight.^ieng