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Background: Maternal and perinatal health is often directly and indirectly affected during infectious disease epidemics. Yet, a lack of evidence on epidemics' impact on women and their offspring delays informed decision-making for healthcare providers, pregnant women, women in the post-pregnancy period and policy-makers. To rapidly generate evidence in these circumstances, we aim to develop a Core Outcome Set (COS) for maternal and perinatal health research and surveillance in light of emerging and ongoing epidemic threats. Methods: We will conduct a Systematic Review and a four-stage modified Delphi expert consensus. The systematic literature will aim to inform experts on outcomes reported in maternal and perinatal research and surveillance during previous epidemics. The expert consensus will involve two individual, anonymous online surveys to rate outcomes' importance and suggest new ones, one virtual meeting to discuss disagreements, and one in-person meeting to agree on the final COS, outcomes definitions and measurement methods. Four panels will be established to participate in the modified Delphi with expertise in (a) maternal and perinatal health, (b) neonatal health, (c) public health and emergency response, and (d) representation of civil society. We will recruit at least 20 international experts for each stakeholder group, with diverse backgrounds and gender, professional, and geographic balance. Only highly-rated outcomes (with at least 80% of ratings being 7-9 on a 9-point Likert scale) and no more than 10% of low ratings (1-3) will be included in the final COS. Conclusions: Implementing this COS in future maternal and perinatal research and surveillance, especially in the context of emerging and ongoing epidemic threats, will facilitate the rapid and systematic generation of evidence. It will also enhance the ability of policy-makers, healthcare providers, pregnant women and women in the post-pregnancy period and their families to make well-informed choices in challenging circumstances.
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Técnica Delphi , Saúde Materna , Feminino , Humanos , Gravidez , Consenso , Epidemias , Projetos de Pesquisa , Revisões Sistemáticas como AssuntoRESUMO
Introduction: Peru is a country that has a high incidence of viral outbreaks and epidemics, which is why it is necessary to validate a scale that measures anxiety and stress in professionals who are on the front lines of these events. Therefore, our objective was to validate the Peruvian-Spanish version of the Stress and Anxiety to Viral Epidemics-9 items (SAVE-9) scale and to concurrently compare its validity and internal consistency with the SAVE-6 scale among healthcare workers (HCWs). Materials and methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study based on data collected from a self-reported survey in paper-and-pencil format between April and July 2023. A total of 203 HCWs participated in the research. We developed a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and item response theory (IRT). We calculated Cronbach's α coefficient and McDonald's ω to assess the internal consistency of the scales. Results: The results show that SAVE-9 (a two-factor model) and SAVE-6 (a one-factor model) provided an excellent fit in the confirmatory factor analysis. Both scales demonstrated strong internal consistency (Cronbach's α 0.85 and 0.86, respectively). Significant correlations were found between the SAVE-9 and SAVE-6 scales and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 items scale (r = 0.44 and r = 0.38, respectively, p < 0.001) as well as the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 items (r = 0.39 and r = 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001). The optimal cutoff points for SAVE-9 and SAVE-6 were identified for assessing anxiety, aligned with a GAD-7 score ≥5 points. Conclusion: The Peruvian-Spanish SAVE-9 and SAVE-6 scales are reliable and valid rating scales to assess the anxiety response of HCWs in response to viral epidemics. Though COVID-19 is diminished, these scales will be useful for other viral epidemics in the future.
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OBJECTIVE: Estimate daily infections of COVID-19 during the first year of the pandemic in the Santiago Metropolitan Region (SRM) in Chile and Chile that are more realistic than those officially registered. METHOD: Retrospective estimate of daily infections from daily data on COVID-19 deaths, a seroprevalence study, and the REMEDID (Retrospective Methodology to Estimate Daily Infections from Deaths) algorithm. RESULTS: In SRM, it is observed that: 1) the maximum peak of infections was more than double that registered in the official statistics; 2) such peak was reached on May 22 (95% CI: 20-24 May), 2022, that is, 24 days before the official date of the peak of infections; and 3) the first estimated contagion took place on January 28, 2020 (95% CI: January 21 to February 16), that is, 36 days before the official date. In Chile, the situation is similar. During the first wave SRM accounted for 70%-76% of those infected in Chile, while from August 2020 onwards it accounted for 36%-39%. CONCLUSIONS: The official records of COVID-19 infections in SRM and Chile underestimated the real number of positives and showed a delay of about a month in the dynamics of infections. This is not an isolated situation, as it is known to have been the case in other countries as well. However, it is important to have reliable estimates for a correct modeling of the spread of the virus.
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O número de casos de dengue no continente americano, no primeiro semestre de 2023, superou o total de casos de 2022 e o Brasil lidera com 2,3 milhões de ocorrências da doença e 769 mortes. A dengue se expande no mundo e já é considerada endêmica em mais de 100 países. Este estudo objetiva caracterizar o perfil dos óbitos por dengue, no período de 2015 a 2023, em uma cidade do interior do estado de São Paulo. Este é um estudo transversal, retrospectivo e descritivo, com análise de dados secundários do Sistema Nacional de Notificação (Sinan), Sistema de Mortalidade (SIM) e banco de dados dos óbitos por dengue, do comitê de mortalidade da vigilância epidemiológica municipal. A capacidade das equipes de saúde em identificar os sinais e sintomas ocorreu em apenas 42,9% dos casos antes da internação e do óbito, seguida por no dia do óbito (11,7%) e após o óbito (8,8%). A mortalidade por dengue predominou em indivíduos do sexo masculino (51,4%), com idade mediana de 74 anos. A análise dos dados demonstrou que o manejo clínico da dengue ainda é desafiador para a equipe de saúde, que precisa se manter permanentemente capacitada para o reconhecimento dos sintomas, sinais de alarme e gravidade, para a correta condução de cada caso, visando a redução da mortalidade.
In the first half of 2023, the number of dengue cases in the Americas surpassed the total for 2022, with Brazil leading the list with 2.3 million disease occurrences and 769 deaths. Dengue is expanding globally and is already considered endemic in more than 100 countries. This study characterizes the profile of dengue deaths from 2015 to 2023 in a municipality of São Paulo. A cross-sectional, retrospective, and descriptive study was conducted with secondary data obtained from the National Notification System (SINAN), Mortality System (SIM), and dengue death database of the municipal epidemiological surveillance mortality committee. Only in 42.9% of cases were the health teams able to identify the signs and symptoms before hospitalization and death, followed by after death (8.8%) and on the day of death (11.7%). Dengue mortality predominated among male individuals (51.4%) with a median age of 74 years. Data analysis showed that the clinical management of dengue remains challenging for health teams, who needs continuous training to recognize the signs and symptoms, warning signs, and severity for correct management of each case, aiming to reduce mortality.
Los casos de dengue en las Américas superaron en el primer semestre de 2023 al total de casos de 2022, en el cual lidera Brasil con 2,3 millones de notificaciones de la enfermedad y 769 muertes. El dengue se expande por el mundo, y más de 100 países ya lo consideran una endemia. Este estudio tiene como objetivo caracterizar el perfil de las muertes por dengue en el período de 2015 a 2023, en una ciudad del interior del estado de São Paulo. Se trata de un estudio transversal, retrospectivo y descriptivo con análisis de datos secundarios del Sistema Nacional de Notificación (SINAN), del Sistema de Mortalidad (SIM) y de la Base de Datos de Muertes por Dengue del Comité de Mortalidad de la Vigilancia Epidemiológica Municipal. Los equipos de salud fueron capaces de identificar los signos y síntomas en solo el 42,9% de los casos antes de la hospitalización y de la muerte, seguida del día de la muerte (11,7%) y tras la muerte (8,8%). La mortalidad por dengue predominó en individuos del sexo masculino (51,4%) con una edad media de 74 años. El análisis de datos demostró que el manejo clínico del dengue sigue siendo un desafío para el equipo de salud, quien necesita mantenerse capacitado continuamente para detectar los signos y síntomas, señales de alarma y gravedad, para la correcta conducción de cada caso, con el objetivo de reducir la mortalidad.
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RESUMEN Objetivo: Describir las características clínicas y epidemiológicas de la viruela símica (Mpox) en la población asegurada de La Libertad del Seguro Social de Salud (EsSalud). Materiales y métodos: Estudio descriptivo, cuyos datos se recolectaron de las fichas clínico-epidemiológicas e historias clínicas; se consideró casos según la sintomatología y el resultado positivo de la prueba PCR. Las variables de estudio fueron síntomas y signos, duración de la enfermedad, antecedentes clínicos, sexo, edad, orientación sexual, lugar de contacto con la persona con la Mpox. Se calcularon frecuencias absolutas y relativas e intervalos de confianza. Resultados: La Mpox se presentó en la población asegurada entre el 15 de julio y el 31 de diciembre del 2022, y se notificaron 48 casos. Las características clínicas fueron fiebre (54,17 %), astenia y linfadenopatía (52,08 %) (cuya localización fue inguinal en el 25 %, cervical en el 12 % y axilar en el 5 %), mialgia y dolor de espalda (43,75 %), dolor de garganta (37,50 %) y escalofríos (5 %), exantema polimórfico y de forma centrífuga (100 %); además, existieron complicaciones (6,25 %) y hubo una persona fallecida (letalidad de 6,25 %). Se presentó inmunodepresión por VIH en 23 casos (47,92 %); antecedente de sífilis, 4 casos (8,33 %); herpes genital, 3 casos (6,25 %); verrugas genitales, 2 casos (4,17 %). Afectó a 47 hombres (97,92 %), entre ellos a homosexuales (58,33 %), 13 heterosexuales (27,08 %) y 7 bisexuales (14,58 %). Diez de ellos tuvieron contacto con personas con la Mpox (20,83 %) en su domicilio, 7 (14,59 %) en el trabajo, 5 (10,42 %) en una fiesta y 2 (4,17 %) en un bar. Conclusiones: La Mpox se manifestó principalmente en hombres homosexuales y bisexuales no vacunados contra la viruela humana. Los principales síntomas fueron fiebre, astenia y linfadenopatía con predominio inguinal. Además, el exantema fue polimórfico en todos los casos, la enfermedad duró de 17 a 45 días, las complicaciones fueron excepcionales, el 50 % de casos tuvieron inmunodepresión por VIH y la letalidad fue de 6,25 %.
ABSTRACT Objective: To describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of monkeypox (mpox) among the insured population of La Libertad at Seguro Social de Salud (EsSalud Social Health Insurance System). Materials and methods: A descriptive study, whose data were collected from clinical-epidemiological records and medical records; the cases with symptoms and positive PCR results were considered. The study variables were signs and symptoms, duration of the disease, medical history, sex, age, sexual orientation and place of contact with someone with mpox. Absolute and relative frequencies and confidence intervals were calculated. Results: Mpox was developed by the insured population between July 15 and December 31, 2022, and 48 cases were reported. The clinical characteristics were fever (54.17 %), asthenia and lymphadenopathy (52.08 %) (in the inguinal [25 %], cervical [12 %] and axillary [5 %] areas), myalgia and back pain (43.75 %), sore throat (37.50 %), chills (5 %) and polymorphous and centrifugal rash (100 %). In addition, there were complications (6.25 %) and one person died (case fatality rate 6.25 %). HIV immunosuppression, history of syphilis, genital herpes and genital warts occurred in 23 (47.92 %), four (8.33%), three (6.25 %) and two (4.17 %) cases, respectively. It affected 47 men (97.92 %), including 28 homosexuals (58.33 %), 13 heterosexuals (27.08 %) and seven bisexuals (14.58 %). Ten of them had contact with someone with mpox at home (20.83 %), seven at work (14.59 %), five at a party (10.42 %) and two at a bar (4.17 %). Conclusions: Mpox occurred mainly in homosexual and bisexual men not vaccinated against human smallpox. The most common symptoms were fever, asthenia and lymphadenopathy, mainly in the inguinal area. Moreover, all cases developed polymorphous rash, the duration of the disease was 17 to 45 days, complications were exceptional, 50 % of the cases had HIV immunosuppression and the case fatality rate was 6.25 %.
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Las epidemias y las pandemias son eventos de ocurrencia natural. La aparición de una nueva enfermedad infecciosa supone siempre una situación compleja, sobre todo si lo hace como una epidemia de extensión o gravedad significativa, con el objetivo de describir las características clínico-epidemiológicas en pacientes confirmados con COVID-19. Se realizó un estudio descriptivo y retrospectivo sobre las características clínico-epidemiológicas de los 161 pacientes diagnosticados con esta enfermedad, en el municipio Yara, de la provincia Granma durante el período comprendido de junio de 2020-2021. Se estudiaron las variables: edad, sexo, lugar de infección, presencia o no de síntomas y signos, antecedentes patológicos personales, área de salud y consejo popular. El 60,8% de los afectados fueron del sexo femenino con 98 pacientes y el grupo de 30-44 años de edad quedó representado por 50 pacientes (31.0%); en 150 casos, la transmisión fue mayormente autóctona (93,1%) y asintomática en 86 casos para el 53,4%. De los pacientes sintomáticos fueron las manifestaciones respiratorias, los principales síntomas con 70 casos para el 93,3%, 63 pacientes tenían antecedentes personales de hipertensión arterial (39,1%). El área de salud que más casos notificó fue "Luis Enrique de la Paz" con 106 pacientes para el 65,8% y Yara el consejo popular más afectado con 72 casos (44,7%), la mayoría de los pacientes fueron del sexo femenino, predominó la transmisión autóctona y la presentación asintomática. La epidemia en el municipio Yara se comportó similar al resto del país.
Epidemics and pandemics are naturally occurring events. The emergence of a new infectious disease is always a complex situation, especially when it occurs as an epidemic of significant spread or severity. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical-epidemiologic characteristics of patients confirmed with COVID-19. A descriptive and retrospective study was carried out on the clinical-epidemiological characteristics of 161 patients diagnosed with this disease, in the municipality of Yara, province of Granma. The following variables were studied: age, sex, site of infection, presence or not of symptoms and signs, personal pathological antecedents, health area and locality. Out of the total, 98 patients were female (60.8%), and the age group 30-44 years was represented by 50 patients (31.0%). Transmission was generally autochthonous in 150 cases (93.1%), and asymptomatic in 86 cases (53.4%). Among the symptomatic patients, respiratory manifestations were the main symptom in 70 cases (93.3%). Also, 63 patients had a personal medical history of hypertension (39.1%). Luis Enrique de la Paz was the health area that reported the most cases with 106 patients (65.8%), and Yara was the most affected locality with 72 cases (44.7%). The majority of patients were female; and autochthonous transmission and asymptomatic presentation predominated. The epidemic in Yara municipality behaved alike in the whole country.
Epidemias e pandemias são eventos naturais. O surgimento de uma nova doença infecciosa é sempre uma situação complexa, especialmente se for uma epidemia de extensão ou gravidade significativa, com o objetivo de descrever as características clínico-epidemiológicas em pacientes confirmados com COVID-19. Foi realizado um estudo descritivo e retrospectivo sobre as características clínico-epidemiológicas dos 161 pacientes diagnosticados com essa doença, no município de Yara, província de Granma, no período de junho de 2020 a 2021, as variáveis foram estudadas: idade, sexo, local de infecção, presença ou não de sintomas e sinais, história patológica pessoal, área de saúde e conselho popular. O 60,8% dos acometidos eram do sexo feminino com 98 pacientes e a faixa etária de 30 a 44 anos foi representada por 50 pacientes (31,0%); Em 150 casos, a transmissão foi predominantemente autóctone (93,1%) e assintomática em 86 casos para 53,4%, entre os sintomáticos foram manifestações respiratórias, sendo os principais sintomas 70 casos para 93,3%, 63 pacientes tinham história pessoal de hipertensão arterial (39,1%). A área de saúde que mais registrou casos foi "Luis Enrique de la Paz" com 106 pacientes para 65,8% e Yara o município popular mais afetado com 72 casos (44,7%), a maioria dos pacientes era do sexo feminino, de transmissão autóctone e apresentação assintomática. A epidemia no município de Yara se comportou de forma semelhante ao resto do país.
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ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the transmission dynamics of dengue, a public health problem in Brazil and the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (MRBH). Methods: The spatiotemporal evolution of the occurrence of dengue in the municipality of Contagem, state of Minas Gerais, a region with high arbovirus transmission, was analyzed. Furthermore, epidemic and non-epidemic periods were analyzed, based on probable cases of dengue. This is an ecological study that used the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) national database. The analyses were carried out considering the period from epidemiological week (EW) 40 of 2011 to 39 of 2017. Spatial analysis tools (crude and smoothed incidence rate, directional distribution ellipse, global Moran index and local Moran index, and spatial scanning time with definition of epidemiological risk) were used. Results: The 2012 to 2013 and 2015 to 2016 epidemic cycles presented high incidence rates. The disease was concentrated in more urbanized areas, with a small increase in cases throughout the municipality. Seven statistically significant local clusters and areas with a high rate of cases and accentuated transmission in epidemic cycles were observed throughout the municipality. Spatial autocorrelation of the incidence rate was observed in all periods. Conclusion: The results of the present study highlight a significant and heterogeneous increase in dengue notifications in Contagem over the years, revealing distinct spatial patterns during epidemic and non-epidemic periods. Geoprocessing analysis identified high-risk areas, a piece of knowledge that can optimize the allocation of resources in the prevention and treatment of the disease for that municipality.
RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a dinâmica de transmissão da dengue, problema de saúde pública no Brasil e Região Metropolitana de Belo Horizonte (RMBH). Métodos: Foi analisada a evolução espaçotemporal da ocorrência de dengue no município de Contagem, estado de Minas Gerais, região de alta transmissão da arbovirose. Ainda, foram analisados períodos epidêmicos e não epidêmicos, com base em casos prováveis de dengue. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico que utilizou o banco de dados nacional do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN). As análises foram realizadas considerando-se o período compreendido da semana epidemiológica 40 de 2011 a 39 de 2017. Ferramentas de análise espacial (taxa de incidência bruta e suavizada, elipse de distribuição direcional, índice de Moran global e índice de Moran local, e varredura espaçotemporal com definição do risco epidemiológico) foram utilizadas. Resultados: Os ciclos epidêmicos 2012 a 2013 e 2015 a 2016 apresentaram altas taxas de incidência. A doença concentrou-se em áreas mais urbanizadas, com pequena expansão de casos por todo o município. Foram observados sete aglomerados locais estatisticamente significativos e áreas com alta taxa de casos e transmissão acentuada em ciclos epidêmicos em todo o município. A autocorrelação espacial da taxa de incidência foi observada em todos os períodos. Conclusão: Os resultados do presente estudo destacam um aumento significativo e heterogêneo nas notificações de dengue em Contagem ao longo dos anos, revelando padrões espaciais distintos durante períodos epidêmicos e não epidêmicos. A análise de geoprocessamento identificou áreas de alto risco, conhecimento este que pode otimizar a alocação de recursos na prevenção e tratamento da doença para o referido município.
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ABSTRACT Objective To review the long-term outcomes (functional status and psychological sequelae) of survivors of critical illnesses due to epidemic viral pneumonia before the COVID-19 pandemic and to establish a benchmark for comparison of the COVID-19 long-term outcomes. Methods This systematic review of clinical studies reported the long-term outcomes in adults admitted to intensive care units who were diagnosed with viral epidemic pneumonia. An electronic search was performed using databases: MEDLINE®, Web of Science™, LILACS/IBECS, and EMBASE. Additionally, complementary searches were conducted on the reference lists of eligible studies. The quality of the studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The results were grouped into tables and textual descriptions. Results The final analysis included 15 studies from a total of 243 studies. This review included 771 patients with Influenza A, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. It analyzed the quality of life, functionality, lung function, mortality, rate of return to work, rehospitalization, and psychiatric symptoms. The follow-up periods ranged from 1 to 144 months. We found that the quality of life, functional capacity, and pulmonary function were below expected standards. Conclusion This review revealed great heterogeneity between studies attributed to different scales, follow-up time points, and methodologies. However, this systematic review identified negative long-term effects on patient outcomes. Given the possibility of future pandemics, it is essential to identify the long-term effects of viral pneumonia outbreaks. This review was not funded. Prospero database registration: (www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero) under registration ID CRD42021190296.
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Since 2002, West Nile Virus (WNV) has been reported in 18 states in Mexico, either by PCR or serological testing. However, it is believed that the virus is present in more states. Only four states (out of 32) have reported confirmed human cases, and one state has serological evidence. In the country, WNV is present in mainly horses and birds, but its presence extends to crocodiles, felines, canines, swines, donkeys, caprines, antilopes, cattle, bats, and camelids. Positive mosquito species include Aedes and Culex spp. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the absence of WNV epidemics in Latin America. Since some regions of Mexico and the United States share ecological and climatic conditions, these hypotheses may not be sufficient to account for the absence of WNV outbreaks or epidemics. This paper discusses the proposed ideas and attempts to contextualize them for Mexico, particularly for the U.S.-Mexico border, where WNV infections have been reported in humans, horses, and mosquitoes. We propose that integration of urban ecology and entomology knowledge is needed to better understand the absence of WN cases in Mexico.
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Aedes , Culex , Febre do Nilo Ocidental , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental , Animais , Humanos , Cavalos , Gatos , Bovinos , Cães , Suínos , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/genética , México/epidemiologia , Mosquitos VetoresRESUMO
El Instituto Nacional de Salud (INS), a través de la Dirección de Vigilancia y Análisis del Riesgo en Salud Pública (DVARSP) evalúa las capacidades de las entidades territoriales (ET) para gestionar las emergencias de salud pública. Esta evaluación bianual se basa en el Reglamento Sanitario Internacional (RSI, 2005) y en los lineamientos nacionales, y busca diagnosticar fortalezas y debilidades para mejorar la preparación y respuesta de los eventos de salud pública. La metodología incluye una encuesta que evalúa cinco dimensiones clave: preparación y planificación; identificación, valoración y análisis; respuesta y comunicación del riesgo. Cada dimensión tiene una ponderación y se complementa con preguntas abiertas para obtener información detallada de cada territorio. Los resultados se organizan en estratos y se presentan de forma semaforizada reflejando el nivel de capacidad de cada entidad territorial. Esta información permite identificar oportunidades y áreas que deben mejorar y optimizar la gestión de riesgo y la respuesta ante emergencias de salud pública Las ET deben completar una encuesta que evalúa las capacidades en gestión del riesgo y respuesta inmediata ante brotes y emergencias dos veces al año. La encuesta está basada en el RSI y se compone de preguntas cerradas y abiertas, cada una con una ponderación específica. Las categorías evaluadas incluyen las cinco dimensiones claves.
The National Institute of Health (INS), through the Directorate of Surveillance and Public Health Risk Analysis (DVARSP) evaluates the capabilities of the territorial entities (ET) to manage public health emergencies. This biannual evaluation is based on the International Health Regulations (RSI, 2005) and in the national guidelines, and seeks to diagnose strengths and weaknesses to improve preparation and response to public health events. The methodology includes a survey that evaluates five key dimensions: preparation and planning; identification, assessment and analysis; response and risk communication. Each dimension has a weighting and is complemented with open questions to obtain detailed information on each territory. The results are organized in strata and are presented in a traffic light format reflecting the level of capacity of each territorial entity. This information allows us to identify opportunities and areas that must improve and optimize risk management and response to public health emergencies. ETs must complete a survey that evaluates management capabilities of risk and immediate response to outbreaks and emergencies twice a year. The survey is based on the RSI and is made up of closed questions and open, each with a specific weighting. The categories evaluated They include the five key dimensions.
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Gestão de RiscosRESUMO
Resumo Este ensaio objetiva discutir as investigações de surtos e epidemias, desde os primeiros relatos disponíveis na literatura científica do século XVIII até o momento atual, utilizando para sua construção artigos científicos e livros sobre a temática. O principal argumento desenvolvido é a passagem de abordagens qualitativas da epidemiologia, predominantes nos períodos iniciais, para a abordagem quantitativa, que inicialmente convive com a qualitativa, mas se torna dominante a partir da segunda metade do século XIX. Conclui-se com uma breve reflexão sobre o momento atual de enfrentamento da epidemia da covid-19.
Abstract This essay aims to discuss the investigation of outbreaks and epidemics, from the first reports available in scientific literature from the 18th century to the present time, using scientific articles and books on the subject for its construction. The main argument developed is the transition from qualitative approaches of epidemiology, which predominated in the early periods, to the quantitative approach, which initially coexists with the qualitative one but became dominant from the second half of the 19th century. It concludes with a brief reflection on the current moment of confronting the COVID-19 epidemic.
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Surtos de Doenças , Epidemias , Investigação EpidemiológicaRESUMO
No Município do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, a incorporação do conceito de inteligência epidêmica e de recursos tecnológicos sustentou novas perspectivas para a utilização de dados pela vigilância em saúde, a partir da pandemia de COVID-19. Neste artigo apresenta-se o Centro de Inteligência Epidemiológica (CIE), ferramentas e produtos desenvolvidos na coordenação. O CIE foi inaugurado em março de 2022, com equipe multiprofissional, apoiado nas premissas de transparência e integração de diversas fontes de dados para detecção precoce de mudanças nas tendências de eventos de importância em Saúde Pública. A aquisição inicial de um data lake favoreceu mudanças nos processos de consumo, gerenciamento e segurança para os dados processados. Esse data lake armazena, atualmente, a Base Carioca - uma coorte retrospectiva composta de indivíduos com histórico vacinal para COVID-19 e/ou eventos relacionados à doença. Painéis descritivos e analíticos foram desenvolvidos e disponibilizados, respectivamente, para uso público e para os gestores da vigilância em saúde. Um painel de alertas, voltado ao monitoramento de tendências nos atendimentos da rede de urgência e emergência municipal, foi implantado e subsidiou ações de resposta rápida nos territórios da cidade. O CIE desenvolveu o conceito de inteligência epidemiológica no Sistema Único de Saúde, e essa mudança de paradigma tornou-se possível em função de investimentos em recursos físicos/humanos, integração de métodos epidemiológicos, estatísticos e das ciências de dados, além de incorporação de fontes de dados diferenciadas nas análises de dados.
In the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the incorporation of the concept of epidemic intelligence and technological resources has supported new perspectives for the use of data by health surveillance, since the COVID-19 pandemic. This article presents the Epidemiological Intelligence Center (CIE) and the tools and products developed in its coordination. The CIE was inaugurated in March 2022, with a multiprofessional team, supported by the premises of transparency and integration of various data sources for early detection of changes in the trends of events of importance in Public Health. The initial acquisition of a data lake favored changes in the consumption, management and security processes for the data processed. This data lake currently stores the Carioca Base - a retrospective cohort of individuals with a history of COVID-19 vaccination and/or events related to the disease. Descriptive and analytical dashboards have been developed and made available, respectively for public use and for health surveillance administrators. An alert panel, aimed at monitoring trends in care in the urgency and emergency network, was implemented and subsidizes rapid response actions in the city's territories. The CIE developed the concept of epidemiological intelligence in the Brazilian Unified National Health System and this paradigm shift was made possible by investments in physical/human resources, the integration of epidemiological, statistical and data science methods, as well as the incorporation of different data sources in data analysis.
En el municipio de Río de Janeiro, Brasil, la inclusión del concepto de inteligencia epidémica y de recursos tecnológicos favoreció nuevas perspectivas en el uso de datos por parte de la vigilancia sanitaria desde la pandemia del COVID-19. Este artículo presenta el Centro de Inteligencia Epidemiológica (CIE), las herramientas y los productos desarrollados en coordinación. El CIE se creó en marzo de 2022 con un equipo multidisciplinar bajo las premisas de transparencia e integración de diversas fuentes de datos para la detección temprana de cambios en las tendencias a grandes eventos en Salud Pública. La adquisición inicial de un data lake promovió cambios en los procesos de consumo, gestión y seguridad de los datos procesados. Este data lake almacena actualmente la Base Carioca, una cohorte retrospectiva compuesta por individuos con antecedentes de vacunación contra el COVID-19 y/o eventos relacionados con la enfermedad. Se desarrollaron paneles descriptivos y analíticos, y se los pusieron a disposición, respectivamente, para uso público y para los gerentes de la vigilancia sanitaria. Se implementó un panel de alerta, dirigido a monitorear las tendencias a la asistencia en la red de urgencia y emergencia del municipio, el cual subvenciona acciones de pronta respuesta en los territorios de la ciudad. El CIE desarrolló el concepto de inteligencia epidemiológica en el Sistema Único de Salud, y este cambio de paradigma se hizo posible gracias a las inversiones en recursos físicos/humanos, la integración de métodos epidemiológicos, estadísticos y de ciencia de datos, además de la inclusión de fuentes de datos diferenciadas en el análisis de datos.
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Objetive: To evaluate the quality of prenatal care during the outbreak of Zika virus infection in endemic and non-endemic vector-borne regions in Colombia. Materials and methods: A descriptive study of prenatal care supplemented by interviews to explore personal experiences during the epidemic. A total of 40 pregnant women in endemic areas and 44 in nonendemic areas participated. Information collected included previous pregnancies, reasons for starting prenatal care, information about Zika, prenatal care (activities of doctors, nurses, laboratories, and images), and perceptions of quality. Then, 8 interviews were conducted with pregnant women diagnosed with Zika. Questioned about knowledge of Zika and the quality of medical care services. Results: Problems with laboratories and diagnostic images were found in both regions and dehumanizing treatment in the endemic region. Women from the endemic region received news and communications about the effects of Zika during pregnancy, causing anxiety and fear among some women. The quality of health care was not what the women expected and they thought they would receive more care from doctors and nurses. Discussion: Our findings show deficiencies in education provided in health institutions. The experience during prenatal control in the endemic regions was imprecise and the information came from other sources, different from the health sector. Adittionally, support and follow-up was deficient as well. It's possible that health professionals have few knowledge about information management, which generated confusion, fear and uncertainty among the pregnant women about the adverse effects on the newborns. Conclusions: Findings suggest deficiencies in the technical quality of the prenatal care provided, particularly in the region that was endemic for vector-borne diseases. Reproductive health services and the technical quality of prenatal care need to be strengthened, especially during a sanitary crisis.
Objetivo: Evaluar la calidad de la atención prenatal durante la epidemia de Zika en regiones endémicas y no endémicas de infecciones trasmitidas por vectores en Colombia. Materiales y Métodos: Estudio descriptivo de la atención prenatal complementado con entrevistas, con el fin de explorar experiencias personales durante la epidemia. Participaron 40 gestantes en zona endémica y 44 en no endémicas. La información recolectada incluyó embarazos previos, razones para iniciar control prenatal, información sobre Zika, control prenatal (actividades de médicos, enfermeras, laboratorios e imágenes) y percepción de calidad. Luego se realizaron 8 entrevistas a gestantes con diagnóstico de Zika. Se interrogó sobre conocimiento del Zika y calidad de los servicios de atención médica. Resultados: Se encontraron problemas con laboratorios e imágenes diagnósticas en ambas regiones y trato deshumanizado en la región endémica. Las gestantes en la región endémica recibieron noticias y comunicados sobre los efectos de Zika durante el embarazo, lo que causó ansiedad y miedo en algunas mujeres. La calidad de la atención medica no era la deseada y pensaron que recibirían mejor atención de médicos y enfermeras. Discusión: Nuestros hallazgos demuestran educación deficiente en las instituciones de salud. La experiencia durante el control prenatal en las regiones endémicas fue imprecisa y venía de fuentes diferentes al sector salud. Además, el soporte y seguimiento fue deficiente. Es probable que el personal de salud tenga poco conocimiento sobre cómo manejar la información, lo cual generó confusión, miedo e incertidumbre entre las gestantes sobre los efectos adversos en los bebes. Conclusiones: Los hallazgos sugieren deficiencia en la calidad técnica de la atención prenatal, particularmente en la región endémica. Es necesario fortalecer los servicios de salud reproductiva y la calidad técnica de la atención prenatal, especialmente durante crisis sanitaria.
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Humanos , Feminino , Cuidado Pré-Natal , Qualidade da Assistência à Saúde , Epidemias , Zika virus , Infecção por Zika virus , Gravidez , Educação em Saúde , MicrocefaliaRESUMO
One line of enquiry in demographic research assesses whether climate affects fertility. We extend this literature by examining the ramifications of climate conditions on fertility over a period of public health crisis in a highly unequal, urban middle-income country. We use monthly data for Brazil's 5,564 municipalities and apply spatial fixed-effects models to account for unobserved municipal heterogeneity and spatial dependence. Findings suggest that increases in temperature and precipitation are associated with declines in births. We also show that changes in response to climate conditions became greater during the Zika epidemic, particularly in urban areas. Combined, findings highlight the value of understanding the intersections between climate and fertility across geographic boundaries and during this public health crisis. Epidemics have become more important in people's lives with the recurring emergence of novel infectious disease threats, such as Zika and Covid-19.
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Infecção por Zika virus , Zika virus , Humanos , Dinâmica Populacional , Demografia , Saúde Pública , Países em Desenvolvimento , Fertilidade , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Brasil/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Most studies modeling population mobility and the spread of infectious diseases, particularly those using meta-population multi-patch models, tend to focus on the theoretical properties and numerical simulation of such models. As such, there is relatively scant literature focused on numerical fit, inference, and uncertainty quantification of epidemic models with population mobility. In this research, we use three estimation techniques to solve an inverse problem and quantify its uncertainty for a human-mobility-based multi-patch epidemic model using mobile phone sensing data and confirmed COVID-19-positive cases in Hermosillo, Mexico. First, we utilize a Brownian bridge model using mobile phone GPS data to estimate the residence and mobility parameters of the epidemic model. In the second step, we estimate the optimal model epidemiological parameters by deterministically inverting the model using a Darwinian-inspired evolutionary algorithm (EA)-that is, a genetic algorithm (GA). The third part of the analysis involves performing inference and uncertainty quantification in the epidemic model using two Bayesian Monte Carlo sampling methods: t-walk and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). The results demonstrate that the estimated model parameters and incidence adequately fit the observed daily COVID-19 incidence in Hermosillo. Moreover, the estimated parameters from the HMC method yield large credible intervals, improving their coverage for the observed and predicted daily incidences. Furthermore, we observe that the use of a multi-patch model with mobility yields improved predictions when compared to a single-patch model.
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Introduction: Physical and non-physical processes that occur in nature may influence biological processes, such as dissemination of infectious diseases. However, such processes may be hard to detect when they are complex systems. Because complexity is a dynamic and non-linear interaction among numerous elements and structural levels in which specific effects are not necessarily linked to any one specific element, cause-effect connections are rarely or poorly observed. Methods: To test this hypothesis, the complex and dynamic properties of geo-biological data were explored with high-resolution epidemiological data collected in the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epizootic that mainly affected cattle. County-level data on cases, farm density, road density, river density, and the ratio of road (or river) length/county perimeter were analyzed with an open-ended procedure that identified geographical clustering in the first 11 epidemic weeks. Two questions were asked: (i) do geo-referenced epidemiologic data display complex properties? and (ii) can such properties facilitate or prevent disease dissemination? Results: Emergent patterns were detected when complex data structures were analyzed, which were not observed when variables were assessed individually. Complex properties-including data circularity-were demonstrated. The emergent patterns helped identify 11 counties as 'disseminators' or 'facilitators' (F) and 264 counties as 'barriers' (B) of epidemic spread. In the early epidemic phase, F and B counties differed in terms of road density and FMD case density. Focusing on non-biological, geographical data, a second analysis indicated that complex relationships may identify B-like counties even before epidemics occur. Discussion: Geographical barriers and/or promoters of disease dispersal may precede the introduction of emerging pathogens. If corroborated, the analysis of geo-referenced complexity may support anticipatory epidemiological policies.
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BACKGROUND: HIV infection has sustained increased in the Chilean young population. In order to focus on sexual education in adolescents, it is first necessary to establish the degree of knowledge and risk behaviors in this group. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the degree of knowledge and HIV/AIDS risk behaviors in adolescents from rural and urban schools. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study included 385 adolescents between 14 and 18 years old. Through an anonymous survey, sociodemographic data, knowledge about HIV/ AIDS, risk behaviors, and ways of accessing information were collected. RESULTS: A third of the adolescents surveyed (33.6%) reported having initiated sexual activity, primarily men. Rural students showed lower knowledge of HIV/AIDS. 32.2% of individuals who initiated sexual activity reported nonuse or rarely use of condoms, and only 4.4% of students have had an HIV detection/diagnostic test. Although the students had received information mainly from their teachers, they reported that if they needed help, they would go to health centers, youth programs, and, to a lesser extent, to teachers. They also preferred access to information in workshops, on the Internet, and social networks. CONCLUSIONS: We observed regular knowledge of HIV/AIDS among adolescents. Rural students showed less knowledge and several risk behaviors. These findings emphasize the need to establish sexual education strategies in adolescents, considering the territory and the use of new technologies.
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Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adolescente , Assunção de Riscos , População Rural/estatística & dados numéricos , Comportamento Sexual/estatística & dados numéricos , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Instituições Acadêmicas , Educação Sexual , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Estudantes/psicologia , Estudantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Chile/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Inquéritos e Questionários , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/prevenção & controle , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Comportamento do Adolescente/psicologia , Fatores SociodemográficosRESUMO
A perspective of epidemics and pandemics in Mexico is offered, focusing on three time periods, namely, end of the 18th century, the 20th century, and the 21st century, in order to analyze how they were approached by health and government authorities, as well as the challenges they have represented. Historical documentary sources were consulted and, in current cases, participation in them was analyzed. Epidemiological and social historical methodologies were combined. The presence of epidemics in Mexico is a constant on its evolution, which highlights the need for the epidemiological surveillance system to be updated, the importance of being prepared to face an epidemic and to develop a contingency plan.
Se ofrece una perspectiva de las epidemias y pandemias en México en tres periodos: fines del siglo XVIII y siglos XX y XXI, con el fin de analizar cómo las autoridades sanitarias y gubernamentales abordaron estos problemas, así como los desafíos que han representado. Se consultaron fuentes históricas documentales y, en los casos actuales, la participación en ellos. Se combinó metodología epidemiológica e histórica social. La presencia de las epidemias en México es una constante, lo cual evidencia la necesidad de actualizar el sistema de vigilancia epidemiológica, de estar preparados para enfrentar una epidemia y de elaborar un plan de contingencia.