RESUMO

There are various climate policies to decarbonize the energy matrix of a country. In the case of Chile, a carbon tax of 5 USD/tCO2 was initially implemented, and later, a schedule was established for the phase-out of coal-fired thermoelectric plants, all the above in the absence of subsidies for non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE). This study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and microsimulations to assess the contribution of current climate policies and other more demanding scenarios that accelerate the decarbonization of the Chilean energy matrix, considering economic, environmental, and distributional impacts. Specifically, carbon taxes are simulated with and without complementary climate policies (phase-out of coal-fired power plants and NCRE subsidies). The results show that the scenarios that combine the three climate policies generate a greater decrease in greenhouse gas emissions (40.4% âˆ¼ 57.5%). Besides, the drop in GDP is more pronounced when coal-fired thermoelectric plants phase out (0.3% additional), and NCRE subsidies contribute to moderately reducing emissions. However, NCRE subsidies reduce the negative effect on households' expenditure and income, especially in the poorest quintile. Finally, microsimulations show marginal changes in income distribution and an increase of up to 0.4 percentage points in the poverty rate.

Assuntos

Carbono , Carvão Mineral , Chile , Centrais Elétricas , Energia Renovável , Impostos , Dióxido de Carbono/análise

RESUMO

Many studies simulate carbon taxes with computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, but there is scarce evidence about how other environmental taxes implemented simultaneously reinforce or lessen the impacts. This study aims to determine the individual and combined effect of taxes on CO2 and other local air pollutants (SO2, NOX, and PM) currently applied in Chile. A flexible CGE model is used to sensitize the results, allowing two nested production structures to be compared. Both nested production structures include a high disaggregation of the energy sector that considers different fossil fuels and renewable energies. The results show that environmental taxes reduce between 5.4% and 6.9% of net CO2 equivalent emissions in the most realistic scenarios. In addition, the carbon tax explains 84%-85% of the drop in net CO2 equivalent emissions, 81%-82% of the reduction in fossil energy consumption, 76%-78% of the decline in GDP, and generates co-benefits by reducing local air pollutants. The tax on PM emissions is the second more relevant to reduce net CO2 equivalent emissions, while taxes on SO2 and NOX emissions have marginal effects. By comparing the impacts of both structures to previous studies based on microdata, it is concluded that the KL-EM provides the best results.

Assuntos

Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Poluição do Ar/prevenção & controle , Poluição do Ar/análise , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Chile , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Impostos , Carbono

RESUMO

The outbreak of COVI-19 and the restrictive measures on the mobility of people in Brazil have raised serious concerns about the survival and recovery of passenger transport companies, especially those that generate public agglomerations. There are some policy proposals that aim to recover this set of sectors in the face of the adverse effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study contributes to this debate in course and analyzes the economic effects of two scenarios of recovery for this type of transport services in the Brazilian economy up to the end of 2022: (i) one with a 50% recovery until the end of 2021 and (ii) another with a 50% sectorial recovery until June 2022. This distinction allows us to assess the impact of the speed of recovery. In both scenarios, we also consider likely changes in the labor market, family preferences, and government spending. To accomplish this task, we developed a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that recognizes a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and has details of the transport sectors. The main findings suggest that the drop in these transport services is the main contributing factor to the decline in the Brazilian GDP growth (-2.2%) in the period of social distance measures. However, faster recovery of these sectors can generate a marginal effect of 0.5 percentage points on GDP at the end of 2021. In the recovery period, due to the redistributive effects of income, the family demand for public transport is expected to grow post- COVID-19 outbreak, while the demand for private transport is reduced, especially in the basket of goods of the poorest households. Vehicle, bus, and aircraft manufacture seems sensitive to the recovery time of the demand for transport services with public agglomerations.