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BACKGROUND Kissing bugs are the vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease (CD). Despite their epidemiological relevance, kissing bug species are under sampled in terms of their diversity and it is unclear what biases exist in available kissing bug data. Under climate change, range maps for kissing bugs may become less accurate as species shift their ranges to track climatic tolerance. OBJECTIVES Quantify inventory completeness in available kissing bug data. Assess how well range maps are at conveying information about current distributions and potential future distributions subject to shift under climate change. Intersect forecasted changes in kissing bug distributions with contemporary sampling gaps to identify regions for future sampling of the group. Identify whether a phylogenetic signal is present in expert range knowledge as more closely related species may be similarly well or lesser understood. METHODS We used species distribution models (SDM), specifically constructed from Bayesian additive regression trees, with Bioclim variables, to forecast kissing bug distributions into 2100 and intersect these with current sampling gaps to identify priority regions for sampling. Expert range maps were assessed by the agreement between the expert map and SDM generated occurrence probability. We used classical hypothesis testing methods as well as tests of phylogenetic signal to meet our objectives. FINDINGS Expert range maps vary in their quality of depicting current kissing bug distributions. Most expert range maps decline in their ability to convey information about kissing bug occurrence over time, especially in under sampled areas. We found limited evidence for a phylogenetic signal in expert range map performance. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Expert range maps are not a perfect account of species distributions and may degrade in their ability to accurately convey distribution knowledge under future climates. We identify regions where future sampling of kissing bugs will be crucial for completing biodiversity inventories.

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Abstract The Global South has witnessed increasing sampling of its immense biological diversity during the past century. However, the diversity of many regions remains unknown, even at pristine and highly threatened places, such as in the Atlantic Forest; and for bioindicator, umbrella, and flagship groups. The present study reports the first butterfly list of the Parque Estadual Intervales, São Paulo, Brazil and surroundings, a key protected area in the last massive continuous of the Atlantic Forest. We compiled data from museums and four years of field work, under three sampling methods. We also aimed at providing resources to support conservation efforts by analyzing 27 years of climatic data (detailed in the Supplementary Material, in English and in Portuguese), discussing our results also for non-academics, and producing scientific outreach and educational material. A companion article dealt with the experiences of science outreach and capacity development, and illustrated the butterfly catalogue of the species sampled in the park. We found 312 species that sum to 2,139 records. The museum had 229 species (432 records), and we sampled 142 species (1,682 individuals), in a total effort of 36,679 sampling hours (36,432 trap and 247 net and observation hours). The richest families were Nymphalidae (148 species) and Hesperiidae (100 species). Most species were sampled exclusively by active methods (79.8%), but other sources (passive sampling, citizen science, etc.) also found unique records. We found the highest diversity metrics from January to May, and we demonstrated that winter months had less richness and abundance. We illustrated the 20 species common to all regions, and listed those that were found more than seven months in the year, as well as the most abundant species in trap sampling, with forest dwellers as well as species common to open and fragmented areas. The dominant species in our trap datasets was the iridescent white morpho, Morpho epistrophus (Fabricius, 1796), and we suggest it to become the park butterfly mascot.

Resumo O Sul Global testemunhou crescente amostragem de sua imensa diversidade biológica durante o século passado. Entretanto, a diversidade de muitas regiões permanece desconhecida, mesmo em locais pristinos e altamente ameaçados, como na Mata Atlântica; e para grupos bioindicadores, guarda-chuva e emblemáticos. O presente estudo reporta a primeira lista de borboletas do Parque Estadual Intervales, São Paulo, Brasil e arredores, uma unidade de conservação chave no último maciço contínuo de Mata Atlântica. Compilamos dados de museus e quatro anos de campo, sob três métodos de amostragem. Também visamos oferecer recursos para apoiar os esforços de conservação, analisando 27 anos de dados climáticos (detalhados no Material Suplementar, em inglês e em português), discutindo nossos resultados numa linguagem também para não acadêmicos, e produzindo material de divulgação científica e educativos. Um artigo irmão tratou das experiências de divulgação científica e capacitação, e ilustrou o catálogo de borboletas das espécies amostradas no parque. Encontramos 312 espécies em 2.139 registros. O museu tinha 229 espécies (432 registros), e amostramos 142 espécies (1.682 indivíduos), em um esforço total de 36.679 horas de amostragem (36.432 armadilhas e 247 horas de rede e observação). As famílias mais ricas foram Nymphalidae (148 espécies) e Hesperiidae (100 espécies). A maioria das espécies foi amostrada exclusivamente por métodos ativos (79,8%), mas outras fontes (passiva, ciência cidadã, etc.) também encontraram registros únicos. Encontramos as maiores métricas de diversidade de janeiro a maio, e demonstramos que os meses de inverno tiveram menos riqueza e abundância. Ilustramos as 20 espécies comuns a todas as regiões, e listamos aquelas que foram encontradas em mais de sete meses no ano, bem como as espécies mais abundantes em armadilhas, com espécies florestais e também comuns em áreas abertas e fragmentadas. A espécie dominante em nossas armadilhas foi a morfo branca iridescente, Morpho epistrophus (Fabricius, 1796), e sugerimos que se torne a borboleta mascote do parque.