Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 1 de 1
Filtrar
Mais filtros











Base de dados
Assunto principal
Intervalo de ano de publicação
1.
Trop Med Int Health ; 29(8): 680-696, 2024 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38961761

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop and validate predictive models that assess the risk of leprosy development among contacts, contributing to an enhanced understanding of disease occurrence in this population. METHODS: A cohort of 600 contacts of people with leprosy treated at the National Reference Center for Leprosy and Health Dermatology at the Federal University of Uberlândia (CREDESH/HC-UFU) was followed up between 2002 and 2022. The database was divided into two parts: two-third to construct the disease risk score and one-third to validate this score. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to construct the disease score. RESULTS: Of the four models constructed, model 3, which included the variables anti-phenolic glycolipid I immunoglobulin M positive, absence of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine scar and age ≥60 years, was considered the best for identifying a higher risk of illness, with a specificity of 89.2%, a positive predictive value of 60% and an accuracy of 78%. CONCLUSIONS: Risk prediction models can contribute to the management of leprosy contacts and the systematisation of contact surveillance protocols.


Assuntos
Hanseníase , Humanos , Hanseníase/epidemiologia , Brasil/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Adolescente , Busca de Comunicante , Adulto Jovem , Fatores de Risco , Criança , Medição de Risco , Vacina BCG , Idoso , Pré-Escolar , Modelos Logísticos , Estudos de Coortes , Imunoglobulina M/sangue
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA