RESUMO
The tourism industry is vulnerable to a range of economic and political factors, which can have both short-term and long-term impacts on tourist arrivals. The study aims to investigate the temporal dynamics of these factors and their impact on tourist arrivals. The method employed is a panel data regression analysis, using data from BRICS economies over a period of 1980-2020. The dependent variable is the number of tourist arrivals, while the independent variables are geopolitical risk, currency fluctuation, and economic policy. Control variables such as GDP, exchange rate, and distance to major tourist destinations are also included. The results show that geopolitical risk and currency fluctuation have a significant negative impact on tourist arrivals, while economic policy has a positive impact. The study also finds that the impact of geopolitical risk is stronger in the short term, while the impact of economic policy is stronger in the long term. Additionally, the study shows that the effects of these factors on tourist arrivals vary across BRICS countries. The policy implications of this study suggest that BRICS economies need to develop proactive economic policies that promote stability and encourage investment in the tourism industry.
Assuntos
Investimentos em Saúde , Viagem , Turismo , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Dióxido de CarbonoRESUMO
This paper attempts to model both static and dynamic dependence structures and measure impacts of energy consumptions (both renewable (EC) and non-renewable (REN) energies), economic globalization (GLO), and economic growth (GDP) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Argentina over the period 1970-2020. For analyses purpose, the current research deploys the novel static and dynamic copula-based ARIMA-fGARCH with different submodels. The static bivariate copula results show that the growth rates of the pairs EC-CO2 and GDP-CO2 are asymmetrically positive co-movements and have high left tail (extreme) dependencies, implying that the increase in non-renewable energy and economic growth can critically contribute to the environmental degradation, and the decrease in the consumption of non-renewable energy at a high level will consequently reduce the CO2 emissions at the same level. Based on several copula-based dependence measures, we document that between the two factors, the non-renewable energy has a stronger impact than the economic growth regarding the CO2 emissions. On the other hand, the growth rates of both economic globalization and renewable energy symmetrically negatively co-move with the growth rates of the CO2 emissions, but they have no extreme dependencies, indicating that these factors contribute to Argentina's environmental quality, in which the factor of renewable energy has a greater impact. Furthermore, the dynamic copula outcomes show that the (tail) dependencies of CO2 emissions on the non-renewable energy and economic growth are time-varying, while the pairs REN-CO2 and GLO-CO2 possess only dynamic dependencies, but no dynamic tail dependencies. Moreover, through the dynamic copula-based dependence, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis can be estimated and illustrated explicitly. In addition, we leverage multivariate vine copulas for modelling dependence structures of the five variables simultaneously, which can reveal rich information regarding conditional associations among the relevant variables. Some policy implications are also provided to mitigate CO2 emissions.