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Climate change will substantially increase extreme rainfall events, especially in the Tropics, enhancing flood risks. Such imminent risks require climate adaptation strategies to endure extreme rainfall and increase drainage systems. Here, we evaluate the potential of nature-based solutions by using an ecosystem service modeling approach, evaluating the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risks in a large urban area and with a real-world land recovery plan. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four different land recovery scenarios and associated co-benefits, based on a gradient increase in area recovered and cost of implementation. Although the scenarios reveal increasing flood risk reduction and co-benefits along with greater proportion of land recovery, the most cost-effective scenario was the one with an intermediate land recovery where 30% of the study area would be reforested. We emphasize the striking benefits of nature-based solutions for flood risk reduction in cities, considering landscape scale and stakeholders' needs.

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Different models are available to estimate species' niche and distribution. Mechanistic and correlative models have different underlying conceptual bases, thus generating different estimates of a species' niche and geographic extent. Hybrid models, which combining correlative and mechanistic approaches, are considered a promising strategy; however, no synthesis in the literature assessed their applicability for terrestrial vertebrates to allow best-choice model considering their strengths and trade-offs. Here, we provide a systematic review of studies that compared or integrated correlative and mechanistic models to estimate species' niche for terrestrial vertebrates under climate change. Our goal was to understand their conceptual, methodological, and performance differences, and the applicability of each approach. The studies we reviewed directly compared mechanistic and correlative predictions in terms of accuracy or estimated suitable area, however, without any quantitative analysis to support comparisons. Contrastingly, many studies suggest that instead of comparing approaches, mechanistic and correlative methods should be integrated (hybrid models). However, we stress that the best approach is highly context-dependent. Indeed, the quality and effectiveness of the prediction depends on the study's objective, methodological design, and which type of species' niche and geographic distribution estimated are more appropriate to answer the study's issue.

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This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on environmental protection and legislation in Brazil. We evaluate major legislative actions, environmental fines and deforestation since January 2019. We show that 57 legislative acts aimed at weakening environmental protection in Brazil during the current administration, almost half of which in the seven-month period of the pandemic in Brazil, with September 2020 as the month with the most legislative acts (n = 16). These acts either deregulated or weakened current environmental legislation, with a number of them aimed at dismantling the main federal institutions in charge of environmental protection. We also found a 72% reduction in environmental fines during the pandemic, despite an increase in Amazonian deforestation during this period. We conclude that the current administration is taking advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to intensify a pattern of weakening environmental protection in Brazil. This has the potential to intensify ongoing loss of biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, and the likelihood of other zoonotic disease outbreaks, and inflict substantial harm to traditional and indigenous peoples. We highlight the key role of the scientific community, media and civil society, national and international levels, in order to reverse these harmful actions.

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Leucism is the lack or reduction in pigmentation in the most or parts of the body, but not in the eyes and body extremities. It is extremely rare in primates and has never been reported for Callithrix, a genus endemic to Brazil. We searched for individuals of Callithrix jacchus and C. penicillata with pigmentation anomalies in a systematic survey of three protected areas in the Atlantic Forest, within museum collections in Brazil, and opportunistically during field studies. Since 2008, we have recorded 8 individuals with leucism in small urban and periurban forest patches. Four were from native populations of C. penicillata in Cerrado savannahs and of C. jacchus in the Caatinga xeric scrubland, and 4 were from populations of hybrids between C. jacchus and C. penicillata in invaded areas in the coastal Atlantic Forest. We found no pigmentation abnormalities in museum specimens. We hypothesize that the observed leucism may be linked to inbreeding within the native range, but to hybridization within the invaded range, and discuss the likely ecological consequences to leucistic individuals.

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While the role of land-use conversion on water quality is reasonably understood, its role on water quantity is controversial. Climate change is also expected to impact water availability. Here we explore the interplay of hydrology, land-use change and climate change in one of the most populous urban areas in the world. We examined the potential of forests to buffer the negative impacts of land-use and climate changes on water-related ecosystem services in Tietê Basin, Brazil, which supplies water to the São Paulo megalopolis. We modelled six hydrological parameters using the WaterWorld Policy Support System, simulating the current baseline and six future scenarios (with different land-use and climate changes). Our results corroborate the general trend that increased forest cover improves water quality. Our modelling also predicts that increased forest cover increases water quantity in the southern part of the basin. The effects of climate change are observed mainly in urban areas, with a reduction in water quality. Because urban areas are not eligible for reforestation, they cannot benefit from its buffering effect on climate change. The increase in water availability is the greatest benefit of reforestation as a strategy to improve water-related ecosystem services in the region. Reforestation, however, will not suffice to restore all hydrological parameters in the basin, and additional sustainable agricultural practices are needed to mitigate impacts on water quality.

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In southeast Amazon, Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata is the incriminated vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, a causative agent of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). The optimal methods for surveying Lu. flaviscutellata were investigated in the Bragança region, northeast Pará State, Brazil, selected for the presence of Le. amazonensis. The performances of modified Disney traps and CDC light traps were compared in four ecotopes within and around four village transects during the wet and dry seasons. The physiological age of female sand flies was estimated and natural infection by flagellates was evaluated by dissection. Disney traps were better for detecting the presence of Lu. flaviscutellata, while CDC traps performed well for detecting Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) antunesi, suspected vector of Leishmania lindenbergi. The former was more abundant during the wet season, when female flies were naturally infected with Le. amazonensis. These findings identified the environments of local transmission. In order to improve surveys of Lu. flaviscutellata as part of integrated epidemiological surveillance of CL, our recommendations include focusing vector surveys with Disney traps on forest fragments where people work, during the seasonal peak of the vector. Further field studies are required to make model-based predictions of seasonal variations in the vectorial capacity of vector populations.

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BACKGROUND: A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species' representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. METHODS: We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. RESULTS: We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. DISCUSSION: Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as "no regret" areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.

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Most conservation decisions take place at national or finer spatial scales. Providing useful information at such decision-making scales is essential for guiding the practice of conservation. Brazil is one of the world's megadiverse countries, and consequently decisions about conservation in the country have a disproportionate impact on the survival of global biodiversity. For three groups of terrestrial vertebrates (birds, mammals, and amphibians), we examined geographic patterns of diversity and protection in Brazil, including that of endemic, small-ranged, and threatened species. To understand potential limitations of the data, we also explored how spatial bias in collection localities may influence the perceived patterns of diversity. The highest overall species richness is in the Amazon and Atlantic Forests, while the Atlantic Forest dominates in terms of country endemics and small-ranged species. Globally threatened species do not present a consistent pattern. Patterns for birds were similar to overall species richness, with higher concentrations of threatened species in the Atlantic Forest, while mammals show a more generalized pattern across the country and a high concentration in the Amazon. Few amphibians are listed as threatened, mostly in the Atlantic Forest. Data deficient mammals occur across the country, concentrating in the Amazon and southeast Atlantic Forest, and there are no data deficient birds in Brazil. In contrast, nearly a third of amphibians are data deficient, widespread across the country, but with a high concentration in the far southeast. Spatial biases in species locality data, however, possibly influence the perceived patterns of biodiversity. Regions with low sampling density need more biological studies, as do the many data deficient species. All biomes except the Amazon have less than 3% of their area under full protection. Reassuringly though, rates of protection do correlate with higher biodiversity, including higher levels of threatened and small-ranged species. Our results indicate a need for expanded formal protection in Brazil, especially in the Atlantic forest, and with an emphasis on fully protected areas.

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Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.

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The Tropical Mockingbird Mimus gilvus (Vieillot, 1808) is a widespread species in the Neotropics, but its southernmost populations in Brazil are ecologically (and possibly taxonomically) distinct, occurring only along the coast in restinga vegetation. Once considered the most common bird in restinga, it is becoming increasingly rare, likely due to habitat loss and illegal capture of nestlings. We conducted field surveys to provide an up-to-date distribution of the Tropical Mockingbird in the southernmost portion of the species' range, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, supplying an estimate of its current regional population size and conservation status. We surveyed 21 restinga remnants in Rio de Janeiro, covering all major restinga areas in the state. For sites where the species' presence was confirmed through transect line surveys, we estimated the local population size. The species was found at only four sites. The mean local population density was 52 individuals per km-2. The estimated current and historical Extent of Occurrence (EOO) were 256 km2 and 653 km2, respectively. Combining the population size and EOO results, we estimated that the population of the state of Rio de Janeiro currently ranges from 2,662 to 13,312 individuals, corresponding to an estimated reduction of 61% to 92% in population size in the last 20 years. The species, therefore, can be considered "Endangered" in the state of Rio de Janeiro. We recommend that a taxonomic study of the southernmost populations is carried out in order to clarify whether they represent a different, likely threatened species. We also recommend that the environmental regulations that protect restingas are used towards the protection of these populations.(AU)

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The Tropical Mockingbird Mimus gilvus (Vieillot, 1808) is a widespread species in the Neotropics, but its southernmost populations in Brazil are ecologically (and possibly taxonomically) distinct, occurring only along the coast in restinga vegetation. Once considered the most common bird in restinga, it is becoming increasingly rare, likely due to habitat loss and illegal capture of nestlings. We conducted field surveys to provide an up-to-date distribution of the Tropical Mockingbird in the southernmost portion of the species' range, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, supplying an estimate of its current regional population size and conservation status. We surveyed 21 restinga remnants in Rio de Janeiro, covering all major restinga areas in the state. For sites where the species' presence was confirmed through transect line surveys, we estimated the local population size. The species was found at only four sites. The mean local population density was 52 individuals per km-2. The estimated current and historical Extent of Occurrence (EOO) were 256 km2 and 653 km2, respectively. Combining the population size and EOO results, we estimated that the population of the state of Rio de Janeiro currently ranges from 2,662 to 13,312 individuals, corresponding to an estimated reduction of 61% to 92% in population size in the last 20 years. The species, therefore, can be considered "Endangered" in the state of Rio de Janeiro. We recommend that a taxonomic study of the southernmost populations is carried out in order to clarify whether they represent a different, likely threatened species. We also recommend that the environmental regulations that protect restingas are used towards the protection of these populations.

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The Austral and Neotropical America (ANA) section of the Society for Conservation Biology includes a vast territory with some of the largest relatively pristine ecosystems in the world. With more than 573 million people, the economic growth of the region still depends strongly on natural resource exploitation and still has high rates of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. A survey among the ANA section membership, with more than 700 members, including most of the section's prominent ecologists and conservationists, indicates that lack of capacity building for conservation, corruption, and threats such as deforestation and illegal trade of species, are among the most urgent problems that need to be addressed to improve conservation in the region. There are, however, strong universities and ecology groups taking the lead in environmental research and conservation, a most important issue to enhance the ability of the region to solve conservation and development conflicts.

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