RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Lead exposure reduces the cognitive development and future economic prospects of children. While previous studies in high-income settings have explored productivity losses associated with lead exposure, limited research has focused on low and middle-income countries like Mexico. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the economic implications of lead exposure on Mexican children using, for the first time, nationally representative Blood Lead Levels (BLLs) measurements in children aged 1-4, specifically focusing on the costs of forgone lifetime income due to cognitive losses. METHODS: BLLs of children aged 1-4 were extracted from the 2018-2019 National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT). Estimations of cognitive losses were derived from a log-linear relationship between BLLs and IQ loss. Lost lifetime economic productivity per child was calculated, assuming a 2% reduction in lifetime potential productivity for each IQ point lost due to lead exposure, based on previous literature (Attina and Trasande, 2013; Larsen and Sánchez-Triana, 2023). Productivity data were obtained from representative sources for Mexico. RESULTS: The estimated economic loss amounted to US $33.02 billion, equivalent to 2.76% of Mexico's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019 (calculated for a 1-year cohort). On a national scale, the long-term loss of cognition for children 1-4 years old is 4.14 IQ points per child due to lead exposure, with significant variability across States (range: 3.26 to 5.26). Lead-poisoned children (≥5 µg/dL) suffered an average loss of 6.42 IQ points (range: 0 to 6.97). In terms of economic impact, some States like Chiapas experienced losses of 7.08% of its GDP, while others had losses as low as 0.67%. Intriguingly, states with lower Human Development Index (HDIs) exhibited relatively higher economic losses despite lower average blood lead levels. DISCUSSION: The heterogeneous impact of lead exposure across Mexican states underscores the necessity for tailored regional policies. These findings emphasize the urgency for targeted interventions and informed policy measures to mitigate the socioeconomic consequences of lead exposure on Mexican children.