RESUMO
Based on an equation that can be used with available data and that provides a basis for facilitating decomposition analyses, this research estimates that about 2.54 million total (as opposed to enumerated) unauthorized Mexicans resided in the United States in 1996. Comparing this figure with an estimate of about 2.70 million released by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) during the 1990s, we find that the two estimates involve different assumptions about circular, invisible, and ambiguous migrants. Such differences not only can have important policy implications; they can also be sizable and can operate in opposite directions, as illustrated by findings from a components-of-difference analysis. The results are also extrapolated to 2000, and implications for 2000 census counts are discussed.
Assuntos
Emigração e Imigração/estatística & dados numéricos , Migrantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Hispânico ou Latino/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , México , Vigilância da População , Estatística como Assunto , Estados UnidosAssuntos
Serviços de Planejamento Familiar/história , Liberdade , Direitos da Mulher/história , Serviços de Planejamento Familiar/tendências , Feminino , Previsões , História do Século XX , Humanos , México , Assistência Perinatal/história , Medicina Reprodutiva , Fatores de Tempo , Saúde da Mulher , Direitos da Mulher/tendênciasRESUMO
PIP: The author analyzes trends in the components of population growth over the past several decades in Mexico, and presents some medium and long-term projections. He notes the process of mortality decline that has been occurring for nearly seven decades, and illustrates the fertility decline that has been a principal determinant in the reduction of population growth and in the recent changes in age distribution.^ieng
Assuntos
Distribuição por Idade , Coeficiente de Natalidade , Previsões , Mortalidade , Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , Fatores Etários , América , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Fertilidade , América Latina , México , América do Norte , População , Características da População , Pesquisa , Estatística como AssuntoRESUMO
PIP: Mexican migration to the US has been a constant feature since the past century, and it is currently one of the most contentious issues on the bilateral agenda. The forces behind the migratory system include the inability of the Mexican economy to absorb all available labor; the demand for Mexican workers in the US agricultural, industrial, and service sectors; the wage differential; the tradition of migration to the US; and the operation of complex social and family networks linking places of origin and of destination. The predominant migratory pattern in the 1960s was a largely circular flow of rural Mexicans originating in a relatively small number of communities in a few states to work temporarily in US agriculture. The flow has become increasingly complex and heterogeneous, with regional, occupational, and sectorial diversification, a much greater presence of migrants of urban origin, and a greater tendency toward long or permanent stays. Recent surveys showed that 95% of short-term migrants crossing the border to the US were male and 70% were aged 12-34 years. The average educational level was 6.2 years, and two-thirds had previous work experience in Mexico. Only about 52% were from traditional places of origin, and 55% were urban. About half were bound for California, but the importance of Texas as a destination was increasing due to stepped-up border patrols in California. 75% hoped to stay in the US longer than 6 months. Two-thirds had previous migratory experience in the US, and two-thirds had no travel or work documents. The annual net migration to the US increased from about 26,000-29,000 in the 1960s to around 300,000 in the first half of the 1990s. 55% of Mexicans residing in the US are male and 70% are aged 15-44 years. 75% of Mexicans over age 25 residing in the US had a high school education or less, and two-thirds aged 16 or over are economically active, with 11% unemployed, 80% earning less than $20,000/year, and 35% living in poverty. A significant proportion receive some type of support from social welfare programs in the US.^ieng
Assuntos
Emigração e Imigração , Migrantes , América , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , América Latina , México , América do Norte , População , Dinâmica PopulacionalRESUMO
PIP: Significant changes have occurred over the past two decades in the volume, intensity, direction, and modalities of internal migration in Mexico. Interstate migration, for example, has increased greatly. The number of persons living in a state different from that of their birth grew from 7.5 million in 1970 to 15.4 million in 1990, equivalent to 14.5% and 18.1% of the population, respectively. The growing volume and intensity of interstate migration have been accompanied by a declining rate of migration to Mexico City and to a lesser extent Guadalajara and Monterrey. Cities of intermediate size, defined as 100,000 to one million inhabitants, have multiplied since 1970 and a few have achieved great economic and demographic dynamism. In 1970, 16.6% of the population or 33.6% of the urban population lived in 37 intermediate cities, while by 1990 nearly 23.7% of the population and 39.0% of the urban population lived in 56 intermediate sized cities. Census and survey data confirm the power of attraction of a group of intermediate cities, but also reveal a complex array of situations. 24 of the 56 intermediate cities had populations of 100,000-250,000, and 21 had populations of 250,000-500,000. Most intermediate cities are located in the Northwest, Center-North, or Gulf regions. Some states have a number of intermediate cities and some have only one that concentrates most of the urban population. 26 of the 56 had growth rates over the two decades of over 4% annually and 20 had rates varying from 3% to 4%. 1990 census data show that 35% or more of the population were in-migrants in five cities: Tijuana, Mexicali and Ensenada in the Northwest, Cuernavaca in the Center-North, and Cancun in the Yucatan peninsula. Between 20% and 34% of the population were in-migrants in 14 intermediate cities. Cancun and Tijuana had the highest proportions of recent migrants. The volume of net migration of most states generally reflected that of their intermediate cities. The economic crisis of the 1980s disproportionately affected the largest cities, reducing their attractiveness.^ieng
Assuntos
Dinâmica Populacional , População Urbana , Urbanização , América , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Emigração e Imigração , Geografia , América Latina , México , América do Norte , PopulaçãoRESUMO
PIP: Analysis of fertility differentials has been utilized for 3 different purposed in sociodemographic research: as an exploratory procedure designed to identify the principal determinants of reproductive behavior; as a strategy to describe and interpret the process of fertility decline and identify the sectors leading the change; and as a means of projecting future fertility trends. The systematic study of differential fertility began in Mexico and Latin America in the late 1950s, following the models of European and North American research guided by theories of modernization and the demographic transition. Latin American studies attempted to verify the existence of differences in reproductive behavior according to certain socioeconomic characteristics, assuming that the sectors most fully incorporated in the processes of modernization and development would lead the fertility decline. Studies in Mexico have demonstrated that total fertility rates decrease systematically as the size of the place of residence increases and as the level of education increases, although the association with education is not strictly lineal. Various studies have confirmed that economically active women have lower fertility than inactive women, although cross-sectional analyses have had little success in establishing the direction of causality. Evidence exists that in Mexico as elsewhere the initial stage in the transition is accompanied by an increase in the absolute and/or relative magnitude of fertility differences among women in the extreme categories of residence, education, or employment. The magnitude of the differences declines as the transition progresses. Using the method proposed by Bongaarts or 1 of its variants, different studies have emphasized the importance of contraception and nuptiality as factors in total fertility rate differentials by socioeconomic characteristics. The theoretical and methodological limitations of differential analysis should not be overlooked. A common trait of these studies is the disarticulated treatment usually given to socioeconomic variables, with little attempt to hierarchize or purely descriptive, with no attempt to establish the relative importance of the variables or to evaluate their independent effects. It is suggested that a theoretical perspective and methodologic focus on social class would simultaneously do much to explain individual fertility behaviors and establish connections between them and the overall social context, providing a more satisfactory and integrated explanatory framework.^ieng
Assuntos
Estudos de Avaliação como Assunto , Fertilidade , Dinâmica Populacional , Classe Social , América , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Economia , América Latina , México , América do Norte , População , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
PIP: Data from the 1982 National Demographic Survey are analyzed to study recent changes in contraceptive use and sterilization in Mexico. Variables studied in relation to contraceptive use include method used, place where information was obtained, social class, rural or urban area, age, education, marital status, and place of residence. In relation to sterilization, variables studied include age, social class, institution where sterilization was performed, number of children, and date of birth of last child. (SUMMARY IN ENG)^ieng