RESUMO
We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Niño southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million km(2)) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million km(2)). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Niño events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million km(2) compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Pradaria , Modelos Biológicos , Chuva , Floresta Úmida , BrasilRESUMO
Land-cover change in eastern lowland Bolivia was documented using Landsat images from five epochs for all landscapes situated below the montane tree line at approximately 3000 m, including humid forest, inundated forest, seasonally dry forest, and cloud forest, as well as scrublands and grasslands. Deforestation in eastern Bolivia in 2004 covered 45,411 km2, representing approximately 9% of the original forest cover, with an additional conversion of 9042 km2 of scrub and savanna habitats representing 17% of total historical land-cover change. Annual rates of land-cover change increased from approximately 400 km2 y(-1) in the 1960s to approximately 2900 km2 y(-1) in the last epoch spanning 2001 to 2004. This study provides Bolivia with a spatially explicit information resource to monitor future land-cover change, a prerequisite for proposed mechanisms to compensate countries for reducing carbon emissions as a result of deforestation. A comparison of the most recent epoch with previous periods shows that policies enacted in the late 1990s to promote forest conservation had no observable impact on reducing deforestation and that deforestation actually increased in some protected areas. The rate of land-cover change continues to increase linearly nationwide, but is growing faster in the Santa Cruz department because of the expansion of mechanized agriculture and cattle farms.
Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Agricultura Florestal/métodos , Bolívia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/tendências , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Agricultura Florestal/tendências , Geografia , HumanosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. RESULTS: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness. CONCLUSION: The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.
Assuntos
Clima , Infecções/etiologia , África , Ásia , Austrália , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Infecções/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , América do Sul , Estados Unidos , Tempo (Meteorologia)RESUMO
Entre 1950 e 1998 houve surtos de febre no Vale do Rift, no Quênia, após períodos de aumentos pluviométricos anormais. Em escala interanual, esses períodos estiveram associados à fase quente do fenômeno ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) na Africa Oriental. As chuvas alagam os criadouros de mosquitos - dambos -, cujos ovos, infectados pela via transovariana, eclodem, produzindo mosquitos Aedes, transmissores do vírus da febre do Vale do Rift aos seres humanos e, em especial, ao gado. A análise dos dados históricos sobre surtos de febre do Vale do Rift e indicadores do fenômeno ENSO - incluindo temperaturas superficiais dos Oceanos Pacífico e Indico e o Indice de Oscilaçäo Sul - mostrou que mais de 75 por cento dos surtos ocorreram em períodos quentes do ENSO. Na época estudada - 1981-1998 -, o mapeamento das condiçöes ecológicas via satélite (NDVI) - com dados normalizados sobre diferenças na vegetaçäo - evidenciou que as áreas de surto apresentaram desvios anômalos na intensidade do verde da vegetaçäo (indicador de pluviosidade alta), em particular, nas regiöes áridas da Africa Oriental - as mais afetadas pela febre. Os resultados indicam associaçäo estreita entre variabilidade climática interanual e surtos de febre do Vale do Rift no Quênia.