RESUMO
Tijuana, Mexico, has a concentrated HIV epidemic among overlapping key populations (KPs) including people who inject drugs (PWID), female sex workers (FSW), their male clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a dynamic HIV transmission model among these KPs to determine the extent to which their unmet prevention and treatment needs is driving HIV transmission. Over 2020-2029 we estimated the proportion of new infections acquired in each KP, and the proportion due to their unprotected risk behaviours. We estimate that 43.7% and 55.3% of new infections are among MSM and PWID, respectively, with FSW and their clients making-up < 10% of new infections. Projections suggest 93.8% of new infections over 2020-2029 will be due to unprotected sex between MSM or unsafe injecting drug use. Prioritizing interventions addressing sexual and injecting risks among MSM and PWID are critical to controlling HIV in Tijuana.
RESUMEN: Tijuana, México, tiene una epidemia de VIH concentrada en poblaciones claves (PC) superpuestas que incluyen personas que se inyectan drogas (PID), trabajadoras sexuales (MTS), sus clientes hombres, y hombres que tienen sexo con hombres (HSH). Desarrollamos un modelo dinámico de transmisión de VIH en estas PC para determinar hasta dónde sus necesidades no atendidas de prevención y tratamiento dirigen la transmisión del VIH. Para 20202029 estimamos la proporción de nuevas infecciones adquiridas en cada PC, y la proporción atribuida a sus comportamientos de riesgo sin protección. Estimamos que 43.7% y 55.3% de nuevas infecciones se dan en HSH y PID, respectivamente, con MTS y clientes conformando < 10% de nuevas infecciones. Las proyecciones sugieren que 93.8% de nuevas infecciones en 20202029 se deberán a sexo sin protección en HSH o uso inseguro de drogas inyectables. Dar prioridad a intervenciones que atienden los riesgos sexual y de inyección en HSH y PID es crítico para controlar el VIH en Tijuana.
Assuntos
Epidemias , Infecções por HIV , Profissionais do Sexo , Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Homossexualidade Masculina , Humanos , Masculino , México/epidemiologia , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: People who inject drugs (PWID) are at elevated risk of HIV infection. Data on population sizes of PWID living with HIV are needed to inform the implementation of prevention, treatment and care programs. We estimated national population sizes of people who recently (past 12 months) injected drugs living with HIV and evaluated ecological associations with HIV prevalence in PWID. METHODS: We used national data on the prevalence of injecting drug use and of HIV among PWID, derived from systematic reviews, to estimate national population sizes of PWID living with HIV. Uncertainty was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 draws. We extracted data on sample characteristics from studies of HIV prevalence among PWID, and identified national indicators that have been observed or hypothesised to be associated with HIV prevalence in PWID. We used linear regression to evaluate associations between these variables and HIV prevalence in PWID. RESULTS: Four countries comprised 55% of the estimated global population of PWID living with HIV: Russia (572,500; 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 235,500-1,036,500); Brazil (462,000; 95% UI 283,500-674,500); China (316,500; 95% UI 171,500-493,500), and the United States (195,500; 95% UI 80,000-343,000). Greater anti-HCV prevalence and national income inequality were associated with greater HIV prevalence in PWID. CONCLUSION: The countries with the largest populations of PWID living with HIV will need to dramatically scale up prevention, treatment and care interventions to prevent further increases in population size. The association between anti-HCV prevalence and HIV prevalence among PWID corroborates findings that settings with increasing HCV should implement effective interventions to prevent HIV outbreaks. The association between income inequality and HIV among PWID reinforces the need to implement structural interventions alongside targeted individual-level strategies.