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The global economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and worldwide inflation surge may have a profound impact on poverty-related infectious diseases, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this work, we developed mathematical models for HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil, one of the largest and most unequal LMICs, incorporating poverty rates and temporal dynamics to evaluate and forecast the impact of the increase in poverty due to the economic crisis, and estimate the mitigation effects of alternative poverty-reduction policies on the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB up to 2030. Three main intervention scenarios were simulated-an economic crisis followed by the implementation of social protection policies with none, moderate, or strong coverage-evaluating the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB. Without social protection policies to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, the burden of HIV/AIDS and TB would be significantly larger over the next decade, being responsible in 2030 for an incidence 13% (95% CI 4-31%) and mortality 21% (95% CI 12-34%) higher for HIV/AIDS, and an incidence 16% (95% CI 10-25%) and mortality 22% (95% CI 15-31%) higher for TB, if compared with a scenario of moderate social protection. These differences would be significantly larger if compared with a scenario of strong social protection, resulting in more than 230,000 cases and 34,000 deaths from AIDS and TB averted over the next decade in Brazil. Using a comprehensive approach, that integrated economic forecasting with mathematical and epidemiological models, we were able to show the importance of implementing robust social protection policies to avert a significant increase in incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB during the current global economic downturn.
Assuntos
Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida , Infecções por HIV , Modelos Teóricos , Tuberculose , Humanos , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/mortalidade , Tuberculose/economia , Brasil/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Incidência , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/prevenção & controle , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/economia , PobrezaRESUMO
Importance: The health outcomes of increased poverty and inequalities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been substantially amplified as a consequence of converging multiple crises. Brazil has some of the world's largest conditional cash transfer (Programa Bolsa Família [PBF]), social pension (Beneficio de Prestacão Continuada [BPC]), and primary health care (Estratégia de Saúde da Família [ESF]) programs that could act as mitigating interventions during the current polycrisis era of increasing poverty, slow or contracting economic growth, and conflicts. Objective: To evaluate the combined association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer, social pension, and primary health care programs with the reduction of morbidity and mortality over the last 2 decades and forecast their potential mitigation of the current global polycrisis and beyond. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a longitudinal ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models (adjusted for relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and health care variables) integrating the retrospective analysis from 2000 to 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. Participants included a cohort of 2548 Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019, projected from 2020 to 2030. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: PBF coverage of the target population (those who were poorest) was categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). ESF coverage was categorized as null (0), low (0.1%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), and consolidated (70.0%-100%). BPC coverage was categorized by terciles. Main outcomes and measures: Age-standardized, all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates calculated for the entire population and by age group (<5 years, 5-29 years, 30-69 years, and ≥70 years). Results: Among the 2548 Brazilian municipalities studied from 2004 to 2019, the mean (SD) age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 16.64% (from 6.73 [1.14] to 5.61 [0.94] deaths per 1000 population). Consolidated coverages of social welfare programs studied were all associated with reductions in overall mortality rates (PBF: rate ratio [RR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.94-0.96]; ESF: RR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.93-0.94]; BPC: RR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.91-0.92]), having all together prevented an estimated 1â¯462â¯626 (95% CI, 1â¯332â¯128-1â¯596â¯924) deaths over the period 2004 to 2019. The results were higher on mortality for the group younger than age 5 years (PBF: RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.85-0.90]; ESF: RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87-0.93]; BPC: RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82-0.86]), on mortality for the group aged 70 years and older, and on hospitalizations. Considering a shorter scenario of economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of PBF, BPC, and ESF to proportionally cover the newly poor and at-risk individuals was projected to avert 1â¯305â¯359 (95% CI, 1â¯163â¯659-1â¯449â¯256) deaths and 6â¯593â¯224 (95% CI, 5â¯534â¯591-7â¯651â¯327) hospitalizations up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity scenarios that would reduce the coverage of these interventions. Conclusions and relevance: This cohort study's results suggest that combined expansion of conditional cash transfers, social pensions, and primary health care should be considered a viable strategy to mitigate the adverse health outcomes of the current global polycrisis in LMICs, whereas the implementation of fiscal austerity measures could result in large numbers of preventable deaths.
Assuntos
Hospitalização , Pensões , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Humanos , Brasil/epidemiologia , Atenção Primária à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Atenção Primária à Saúde/economia , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Hospitalização/economia , Hospitalização/tendências , Feminino , Masculino , Pensões/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Pré-Escolar , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adolescente , Criança , Mortalidade/tendências , Adulto Jovem , Lactente , Estudos Retrospectivos , Idoso , Estudos Longitudinais , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
The replacement of the Primary Care Information System (SIAB, 1998-2015), as of January 2016, by the new Health Information System for Primary Care (SISAB) determined new forms of collecting, processing, and using information, with a possible impact on the records of activities carried out in primary health care in Brazil. This study aimed to evaluate the implementation impact of the new information system on records of physicians' and nurses' patient care and home visits of community health workers (CHW) in Brazil from 2007 to 2019. To this end, a Bayesian structural time-series model approach was used, based on a diffuse state-space regression. From 2016 to 2019, 463.47 million physician care, 210.61 million nursing care, and 1.28 billion CHW visits were recorded. Following the trend recorded before the implementation, 598.86 million, 430.46 million, and 1.5 billion physician and nursing appointments and CHW visits would be expected, respectively. In relative terms, there was a decrease of 25% in physician care, 51% in nursing care, and 15% in CHW visits when compared to the value expected by the Bayesian method. The negative impact on the records of patient care and home visits identified in this study, whether due to difficulties in adapting to the new system or a reduction in improper records, must be investigated so that the challenge of improving the primary care information system can be understood and overcome in a planned way.
A substituição do Sistema de Informação da Atenção Básica (SIAB, 1998-2015), a partir de janeiro de 2016, pelo novo Sistema de Informação em Saúde para a Atenção Básica (SISAB) determinou novas formas de coleta, processamento e uso das informações, com possível impacto nos registros das atividades desenvolvidas na atenção primária à saúde no Brasil. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o impacto da implantação do novo sistema de informação sobre registros de atendimentos de médicos e enfermeiros, e de visitas domiciliares de agentes comunitários de saúde (ACS) brasileiros entre 2007 e 2019. Para tal, utilizou-se uma abordagem bayesiana de modelo estrutural para séries temporais, com base em uma regressão difusa de espaço-estado. Ao longo do período de 2016 a 2019, foram registrados 463,47 milhões de atendimentos médicos, 210,61 milhões de atendimentos de enfermagem e 1,28 bilhão de visitas de ACS. Seguindo a tendência registrada antes da implantação, seriam esperados 598,86 milhões, 430,46 milhões e 1,5 bilhão de atendimentos de médicos, enfermeiros e visitas de ACS, respectivamente. Em termos relativos, houve um decréscimo de 25% nos atendimentos médicos, 51% nos atendimentos de enfermagem e 15% nas visitas de ACS quando comparado com o valor esperado pelo método bayesiano. O impacto negativo no registro de atendimentos e de visitas domiciliares identificado neste estudo, seja por dificuldade de adaptação ao novo sistema, seja por diminuição de registros indevidos, merece ser alvo de investigação para que se possa, de forma planejada, compreender e superar o desafio da melhoria do sistema de informação da atenção primária.
La sustitución del Sistema de Información de la Atención Básica (SIAB, 1998-2015), desde enero de 2016, por el nuevo Sistema de Información en Salud para la Atención Básica (SISAB) estableció nuevas maneras para recolectar, procesar y utilizar las informaciones, con posibles impactos en los registros de las actividades desarrolladas en la atención primaria de salud en Brasil. El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar el impacto de la implantación del nuevo sistema de información sobre los registros de atención de médicos y enfermeros y de visitas domiciliarias de agentes comunitarios de salud (ACS) en Brasil entre 2007 y 2019. Para eso, se utilizó un enfoque bayesiano de modelo estructural para series temporales basadas en una regresión difusa de espacio de estado. Entre los años 2016 y 2019, se registraron 463,47 millones de consultas médicas, 210,61 millones de consultas de enfermería y 1,28 mil millones de visitas de ACS. Siguiendo la tendencia registrada antes de la implantación, se esperarían 598,86 millones, 430,46 millones y 1,5 mil millones de consultas médicas y de enfermería y visitas de ACS respectivamente. En términos relativos, hubo una disminución del 25% en las consultas médicas, del 51% en las consultas de enfermería y del 15% en las visitas de ACS en comparación con el valor esperado por el método bayesiano. El impacto negativo en el registro de consultas y visitas domiciliarias identificado en este estudio, ya sea por dificultades en la adaptación al nuevo sistema o por la disminución de los registros indebidos, merece ser objeto de investigación para que se pueda, de manera planificada, comprender y superar el desafío continuo de mejorar el sistema de información de la atención primaria.
Assuntos
Sistemas de Informação em Saúde , Humanos , Brasil , Visita Domiciliar , Teorema de Bayes , Assistência ao PacienteRESUMO
Resumo: A substituição do Sistema de Informação da Atenção Básica (SIAB, 1998-2015), a partir de janeiro de 2016, pelo novo Sistema de Informação em Saúde para a Atenção Básica (SISAB) determinou novas formas de coleta, processamento e uso das informações, com possível impacto nos registros das atividades desenvolvidas na atenção primária à saúde no Brasil. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o impacto da implantação do novo sistema de informação sobre registros de atendimentos de médicos e enfermeiros, e de visitas domiciliares de agentes comunitários de saúde (ACS) brasileiros entre 2007 e 2019. Para tal, utilizou-se uma abordagem bayesiana de modelo estrutural para séries temporais, com base em uma regressão difusa de espaço-estado. Ao longo do período de 2016 a 2019, foram registrados 463,47 milhões de atendimentos médicos, 210,61 milhões de atendimentos de enfermagem e 1,28 bilhão de visitas de ACS. Seguindo a tendência registrada antes da implantação, seriam esperados 598,86 milhões, 430,46 milhões e 1,5 bilhão de atendimentos de médicos, enfermeiros e visitas de ACS, respectivamente. Em termos relativos, houve um decréscimo de 25% nos atendimentos médicos, 51% nos atendimentos de enfermagem e 15% nas visitas de ACS quando comparado com o valor esperado pelo método bayesiano. O impacto negativo no registro de atendimentos e de visitas domiciliares identificado neste estudo, seja por dificuldade de adaptação ao novo sistema, seja por diminuição de registros indevidos, merece ser alvo de investigação para que se possa, de forma planejada, compreender e superar o desafio da melhoria do sistema de informação da atenção primária.
Abstract: The replacement of the Primary Care Information System (SIAB, 1998-2015), as of January 2016, by the new Health Information System for Primary Care (SISAB) determined new forms of collecting, processing, and using information, with a possible impact on the records of activities carried out in primary health care in Brazil. This study aimed to evaluate the implementation impact of the new information system on records of physicians' and nurses' patient care and home visits of community health workers (CHW) in Brazil from 2007 to 2019. To this end, a Bayesian structural time-series model approach was used, based on a diffuse state-space regression. From 2016 to 2019, 463.47 million physician care, 210.61 million nursing care, and 1.28 billion CHW visits were recorded. Following the trend recorded before the implementation, 598.86 million, 430.46 million, and 1.5 billion physician and nursing appointments and CHW visits would be expected, respectively. In relative terms, there was a decrease of 25% in physician care, 51% in nursing care, and 15% in CHW visits when compared to the value expected by the Bayesian method. The negative impact on the records of patient care and home visits identified in this study, whether due to difficulties in adapting to the new system or a reduction in improper records, must be investigated so that the challenge of improving the primary care information system can be understood and overcome in a planned way.
Resumen: La sustitución del Sistema de Información de la Atención Básica (SIAB, 1998-2015), desde enero de 2016, por el nuevo Sistema de Información en Salud para la Atención Básica (SISAB) estableció nuevas maneras para recolectar, procesar y utilizar las informaciones, con posibles impactos en los registros de las actividades desarrolladas en la atención primaria de salud en Brasil. El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar el impacto de la implantación del nuevo sistema de información sobre los registros de atención de médicos y enfermeros y de visitas domiciliarias de agentes comunitarios de salud (ACS) en Brasil entre 2007 y 2019. Para eso, se utilizó un enfoque bayesiano de modelo estructural para series temporales basadas en una regresión difusa de espacio de estado. Entre los años 2016 y 2019, se registraron 463,47 millones de consultas médicas, 210,61 millones de consultas de enfermería y 1,28 mil millones de visitas de ACS. Siguiendo la tendencia registrada antes de la implantación, se esperarían 598,86 millones, 430,46 millones y 1,5 mil millones de consultas médicas y de enfermería y visitas de ACS respectivamente. En términos relativos, hubo una disminución del 25% en las consultas médicas, del 51% en las consultas de enfermería y del 15% en las visitas de ACS en comparación con el valor esperado por el método bayesiano. El impacto negativo en el registro de consultas y visitas domiciliarias identificado en este estudio, ya sea por dificultades en la adaptación al nuevo sistema o por la disminución de los registros indebidos, merece ser objeto de investigación para que se pueda, de manera planificada, comprender y superar el desafío continuo de mejorar el sistema de información de la atención primaria.
RESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Medication errors are frequent and have high economic and social impacts; however, some medication errors are more likely to result in harm than others. Therefore, it is critical to determine their severity. Various tools exist to measure and classify the harm associated with medication errors; although, few have been validated internationally. METHODS: We validated an existing method for assessing the potential severity of medication administration errors (MAEs) in Brazil. Thirty healthcare professionals (doctors, nurses and pharmacists) from Brazil were invited to score 50 cases of MAEs as in the original UK study, regarding their potential harm to the patient, on a scale from 0 to 10. Sixteen cases with known harmful outcomes were included to assess the validity of the scoring. To assess test-retest reliability, 10 cases (of the 50) were scored twice. Potential sources of variability in scoring were evaluated, including the occasion on which the scores were given, the scorers, their profession and the interactions among these variables. Data were analysed using generalisability theory. A G coefficient of 0.8 or more was considered reliable, and a Bland-Altman analysis was used to assess test-retest reliability. RESULTS: To obtain a generalisability coefficient of 0.8, a minimum of three judges would need to score each case with their mean score used as an indicator of severity. The method also appeared to be valid, as the judges' assessments were largely in line with the outcomes of the 16 cases with known outcomes. The Bland-Altman analysis showed that the distribution was homogeneous above and below the mean difference for doctors, pharmacists and nurses. CONCLUSION: The results of this study demonstrate the reliability and validity of an existing method of scoring the severity of MAEs for use in the Brazilian health system.
Assuntos
Pessoal de Saúde , Erros de Medicação , Humanos , Brasil , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Erros de Medicação/prevenção & controle , FarmacêuticosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data on medication errors severity are scarce. The assessment of the prevalence and severity of medication errors may be limited because of several reasons, including a lack of standardization in the method of identifying medication administration errors and little knowledge about the appropriate assessment tools to measure severity. Thus, in this study, we aim to assess the potential severity of errors identified by direct observation in a teaching hospital. METHODS: We used a validated method for assessing the potential severity of medication administration errors. Responses are scored on a 10-point scale. The 203 errors identified in a previous study were organized per similarity, resulting in 67 errors. This list was assessed by a panel of a physician, a nurse, and two pharmacists. The average score for each of the 67 errors was estimated considering the scores given by the 4 judges. Errors with a severity index < 3, between 3 and 7, and > 7 were considered minor, moderate, and severe, respectively. RESULTS: Professionals classified the potential clinical significance of the errors as minor, moderate, and severe in 8.8% (18/203), 82.8% (168/203), and 8.4% (17/203) of the cases, respectively. Most errors considered potentially serious (41%, 7/17) were technical errors. Most potentially serious errors involved insulin. Regarding the administration route, nine (53%) potentially serious errors involved medications administered intravenously. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the errors were considered as potentially moderated by the expert panel; however, the frequency of potentially serious errors was higher than that in previous studies using the same methodology, which highlights the need for strategies to reduce their occurrence.
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Importance: Latin America has implemented the world's largest and most consolidated conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs during the last 2 decades. As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty rates have markedly increased, and a large number of newly low-income individuals, especially children, have been left unprotected. Objective: To evaluate the association of CCT programs with child health in Latin American countries during the last 2 decades and forecast child mortality trends up to 2030 according to CCT alternative implementation options. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a multicountry, longitudinal, ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models, which were adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables, integrating the retrospective impact evaluations from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. The study cohort included 4882 municipalities from Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico with adequate quality of civil registration and vital statistics according to a validated multidimensional criterion. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: Conditional cash transfer coverage of the target (lowest-income) population categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were mortality rates for those younger than 5 years and hospitalization rates (per 1000 live births), overall and by poverty-related causes (diarrheal, malnutrition, tuberculosis, malaria, lower respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS), and the mortality rates for those younger than 5 years by age groups, namely, neonatal (0-28 days), postneonatal (28 days to 1 year), infant (<1 year), and toddler (1-4 years). Results: The retrospective analysis included 4882 municipalities. During the study period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, mortality in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico decreased by 7.8% in children and 6.5% in infants, and an increase in coverage of CCT programs of 76.8% was observed in these Latin American countries. Conditional cash transfer programs were associated with significant reductions of mortality rates in those younger than 5 years (rate ratio [RR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76), having prevented 738â¯919 (95% CI, 695â¯641-782â¯104) child deaths during this period. The association of highest coverage of CCT programs was stronger with poverty-related diseases, such as malnutrition (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.35), diarrhea (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.40-0.43), lower respiratory tract infections (RR, 0.66, 95% CI, 0.65-0.68), malaria (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), tuberculosis (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.79), and HIV/AIDS (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37). Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of CCTs to protect those newly in poverty could reduce the mortality rate for those younger than 5 years by up to 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85) and prevent 153â¯601 (95% CI, 127â¯441-180â¯600) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cohort study suggest that the expansion of CCT programs could strongly reduce childhood hospitalization and mortality in Latin America and should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health impact of the current global economic crisis in low- and middle-income countries.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Infecções por HIV , Desnutrição , Infecções Respiratórias , Tuberculose , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Humanos , Criança , Mortalidade da Criança , América Latina/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Infecções Respiratórias/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Desnutrição/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Background: Social determinants of health (SDH) include factors such as income, education, and race, that could significantly affect the human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). Studies on the effects of SDH on HIV/AIDS are limited, and do not yet provide a systematic understanding of how the various SDH act on important indicators of HIV/AIDS progression. We aimed to evaluate the effects of SDH on AIDS morbidity and mortality. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 28.3 million individuals was evaluated over a 9-year period (from 2007 to 2015). Multivariable Poisson regression, with a hierarchical approach, was used to estimate the effects of SDH-at the individual and familial level-on AIDS incidence, mortality, and case-fatality rates. Findings: A total of 28,318,532 individuals, representing the low-income Brazilian population, were assessed, who had a mean age of 36.18 (SD: 16.96) years, 52.69% (14,920,049) were female, 57.52% (15,360,569) were pardos, 34.13% (9,113,222) were white/Asian, 7.77% (2,075,977) were black, and 0.58% (154,146) were indigenous. Specific socioeconomic, household, and geographic factors were significantly associated with AIDS-related outcomes. Less wealth was strongly associated with a higher AIDS incidence (rate ratios-RR: 1.55; 95% confidence interval-CI: 1.43-1.68) and mortality (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.70-2.34). Lower educational attainment was also greatly associated with higher AIDS incidence (RR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.26-1.68), mortality (RR: 2.76; 95% CI: 1.99-3.82) and case-fatality rates (RR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.31-4.01). Being black was associated with a higher AIDS incidence (RR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.45-1.61), mortality (RR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.57-1.83) and case-fatality rates (RR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.03-1.32). Overall, also considering the other SDH, individuals experiencing greater levels of socioeconomic deprivation were, by far, more likely to acquire AIDS, and to die from it. Interpretation: In the population studied, SDH related to poverty and social vulnerability are strongly associated with a higher burden of HIV/AIDS, most notably less wealth, illiteracy, and being black. In the absence of relevant social protection policies, the current worldwide increase in poverty and inequalities-due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of war in the Ukraine-could reverse progress made in the fight against HIV/AIDS in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Funding: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NAIDS), National Institutes of Health (NIH), US Grant Number: 1R01AI152938.
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Currently, it is estimated that 37.6 million people are living with the HIV/AIDS virus worldwide, placing HIV/AIDS among the ten leading causes of death, mostly among low- and lower-middle-income countries. Despite the effective intervention in the prevention and treatment, this reduction did not occur equally among populations, subpopulations and geographic regions. This difference in the occurrence of the disease is associated with the social determinants of health (SDH), which could affect the transmission and maintenance of HIV. With the recognition of the importance of SDH in HIV transmission, the development of mathematical models that incorporate these determinants could increase the accuracy and robustness of the modeling. This article aims to propose a theoretical and conceptual way of including SDH in the mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS. The theoretical mathematical model with the Social Determinants of Health has been developed in stages. For the selection of SDH that were incorporated into the model, a narrative literature review was conducted. Secondly, we proposed an extended model in which the population (N) is divided into Susceptible (S), HIV-positive (I), Individual with AIDS (A) and individual under treatment (T). Each SDH had a different approach to embedding in the model. We performed a calibration and validation of the model. A total of 31 SDH were obtained in the review, divided into four groups: Individual Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Social Participation, and Health Services. In the end, four determinants were selected for incorporation into the model: Education, Poverty, Use of Drugs and Alcohol abuse, and Condoms Use. the section "Numerical simulation" to simulate the influence of the poverty rate on the AIDS incidence and mortality rates. We used a Brazilian dataset of new AIDS cases and deaths, which is publicly available. We calibrated the model using a multiobjective genetic algorithm for the years 2003 to 2019. To forecast from 2020 to 2035, we assumed two lines of poverty rate representing (i) a scenario of increasing and (ii) a scenario of decreasing. To avoid overfitting, we fixed some parameters and estimated the remaining. The equations presented with the chosen SDH exemplify some approaches that we can adopt when thinking about modeling social effects on the occurrence of HIV. The model was able to capture the influence of the employment/poverty on the HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality rates, evidencing the importance of SDOH in the occurrence of diseases. The recognition of the importance of including the SDH in the modeling and studies on HIV/AIDS is evident, due to its complexity and multicausality. Models that do not take into account in their structure, will probably miss a great part of the real trends, especially in periods, as the current on, of economic crisis and strong socioeconomic changes.
Assuntos
Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida , Humanos , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/prevenção & controle , Determinantes Sociais da Saúde , Brasil , Pobreza , Modelos TeóricosRESUMO
Resumo Descreve a evolução da estrutura e resultados da Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS) no Brasil, entre 2008 e 2019. Foram calculadas a mediana de variáveis como: despesa per capita em APS por habitante coberto, cobertura da APS e as taxas de mortalidade e internações por condições sensíveis à atenção primária (CSAP) de 5.565 municípios brasileiros estratificados segundo porte populacional e quintil do Índice Brasileiro de Privação (IBP) e analisada a tendência mediana no período. Houve aumento de 12% na mediana da despesa em APS. A cobertura da APS expandiu, sendo que 3.168 municípios apresentaram 100% de cobertura em 2019, contra 2.632 em 2008. A mediana das taxas de mortalidade e internações por CSAP aumentou 0,2% e diminuiu 44,9% respectivamente. A despesa em APS foi menor nos municípios com maior privação socioeconômica. Quanto maior o porte populacional e melhores as condições socioeconômicas dos municípios, menor a cobertura da APS. Quanto maior a privação socioeconômica dos municípios, maiores foram as medianas das taxas de mortalidade por CSAP. Este estudo demonstrou que a evolução da APS foi heterogênea e está associada tanto ao porte populacional como às condições socioeconômicas dos municípios.
Abstract This paper describes the structure and results of Primary Health Care (PHC) in Brazil between 2008 and 2019. The medians of the following variables were calculated: PHC spending per inhabitant covered, PHC coverage, and rates of mortality and hospitalizations due to primary care sensitive conditions (PCSC), in 5,565 Brazilian municipalities stratified according to population size and quintile of the Brazilian Deprivation Index (IBP), and the median trend in the period was analyzed. There was a 12% increase in median PHC spending. PHC coverage expanded, with 3,168 municipalities presenting 100% coverage in 2019, compared to 2,632 in 2008. The median rates of PCSC mortality and hospitalizations increased 0.2% and decreased 44.9%, respectively. PHC spending was lower in municipalities with greater socioeconomic deprivation. The bigger the population and the better the socioeconomic conditions were in the municipalities, the lower the PHC coverage. The greater the socioeconomic deprivation was in the municipalities, the higher the median PCSC mortality rates. This study showed that the evolution of PHC was heterogeneous and is associated both with the population size and with the socioeconomic conditions of the municipalities.
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This paper describes the structure and results of Primary Health Care (PHC) in Brazil between 2008 and 2019. The medians of the following variables were calculated: PHC spending per inhabitant covered, PHC coverage, and rates of mortality and hospitalizations due to primary care sensitive conditions (PCSC), in 5,565 Brazilian municipalities stratified according to population size and quintile of the Brazilian Deprivation Index (IBP), and the median trend in the period was analyzed. There was a 12% increase in median PHC spending. PHC coverage expanded, with 3,168 municipalities presenting 100% coverage in 2019, compared to 2,632 in 2008. The median rates of PCSC mortality and hospitalizations increased 0.2% and decreased 44.9%, respectively. PHC spending was lower in municipalities with greater socioeconomic deprivation. The bigger the population and the better the socioeconomic conditions were in the municipalities, the lower the PHC coverage. The greater the socioeconomic deprivation was in the municipalities, the higher the median PCSC mortality rates. This study showed that the evolution of PHC was heterogeneous and is associated both with the population size and with the socioeconomic conditions of the municipalities.
Descreve a evolução da estrutura e resultados da Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS) no Brasil, entre 2008 e 2019. Foram calculadas a mediana de variáveis como: despesa per capita em APS por habitante coberto, cobertura da APS e as taxas de mortalidade e internações por condições sensíveis à atenção primária (CSAP) de 5.565 municípios brasileiros estratificados segundo porte populacional e quintil do Índice Brasileiro de Privação (IBP) e analisada a tendência mediana no período. Houve aumento de 12% na mediana da despesa em APS. A cobertura da APS expandiu, sendo que 3.168 municípios apresentaram 100% de cobertura em 2019, contra 2.632 em 2008. A mediana das taxas de mortalidade e internações por CSAP aumentou 0,2% e diminuiu 44,9% respectivamente. A despesa em APS foi menor nos municípios com maior privação socioeconômica. Quanto maior o porte populacional e melhores as condições socioeconômicas dos municípios, menor a cobertura da APS. Quanto maior a privação socioeconômica dos municípios, maiores foram as medianas das taxas de mortalidade por CSAP. Este estudo demonstrou que a evolução da APS foi heterogênea e está associada tanto ao porte populacional como às condições socioeconômicas dos municípios.
Assuntos
Hospitalização , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Humanos , Brasil/epidemiologia , Cidades , Densidade Demográfica , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in late 2019 has had social, political, and economic consequences worldwide. However, its emergence was not a surprise. In 2015, a Panel organised by the World Health Organization highlighted the importance of learning about the crisis caused by the Ebola epidemic. In 1992, the Committee on Emerging Microbial Threats to Health of the US Institute of Medicine warned of the possibility of an emerging global microbial threat. In this text, we point out five arguments that reveal the global failure in facing the pandemic: (1) deficiency in the global alert system and the fragility of the International Health Regulations (IHR-2005), (2) problems of the international response to the pandemic, related to global health governance, (3) the dispersed global adoption of the elimination strategy (zero Covid) widely seen as a policy of restriction of freedom instead as a strategy of inequities reduction, (4) fragile control of the disease with a narrow reading of the associated problems, and (5) global setbacks in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the context of ongoing neoliberal national policies. Finally, we argue that overcoming the weaknesses discussed requires strengthening health systems in all their components and expanding social welfare policies.[Figure: see text].
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COVID-19 , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Saúde Global , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/epidemiologia , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/prevenção & controleRESUMO
BACKGROUND: One of the biggest challenges of the response to the AIDS epidemic is to reach the poorest people. In 2004, Brazil implemented one of the world's largest conditional cash transfer programmes, the Bolsa Família Programme (BFP). We aimed to evaluate the effect of BFP coverage on AIDS incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality in Brazil. METHODS: In this longitudinal ecological study, we developed a conceptual framework linking key mechanisms of BFP effects on AIDS indicators and used ecological panel data from 5507 Brazilian municipalities over the period of 2004-18. We used government sources to calculate municipal-level AIDS incidence, hospitalisation, and mortality rates, and used multivariable regressions analyses of panel data with fixed-effects negative binomial models to estimate the effect of BFP coverage, which was classified as low (0-29%), intermediate (30-69%), and high (≥70%), on AIDS indicators, while adjusting for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health-care covariates at the municipal level. FINDINGS: Between 2004 and 2018, in the municipalities under study, 601â977 new cases of AIDS were notified, of which 376â772 (62·6%) were in males older than 14 years, 212â465 (35·3%) were in females older than 14 years, and 12â740 (2·1%) were in children aged 14 years or younger. 533â624 HIV/AIDS-related hospitalisations, and 176â868 AIDS-related deaths had been notified. High BFP coverage was associated with reductions in incidence rate ratios of 5·1% (95% CI 0·9-9·1) for AIDS incidence, 14·3% (7·7-20·5) for HIV/AIDS hospitalisations, and 12·0% (5·2-18·4) for AIDS mortality. The effect of the BFP on AIDS indicators was more pronounced in municipalities with higher AIDS endemicity levels, with reductions in incidence rate ratios of 12·7% (95% CI 5·4-19·4) for AIDS incidence, 21·1% (10·7-30·2) for HIV/AIDS hospitalisations, and 14·7% (3·2-24·9) for AIDS-related mortality, and reductions in AIDS incidence of 14·6% (5·9-22·5) in females older than 14 years, 9·7% (1·4-17·3) in males older than 14 years, and 24·5% (0·5-42·7) in children aged 14 years or younger. INTERPRETATION: The effect of BFP coverage on AIDS indicators in Brazil could be explained by the reduction of households' poverty and by BFP health-related conditionalities. The protection of the most vulnerable populations through conditional cash transfers could contribute to the reduction of AIDS burden in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATION: For the Portugese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Assuntos
Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida , Infecções por HIV , Criança , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/prevenção & controle , Brasil/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Hospitalização , IncidênciaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Medication administration errors are frequent and cause significant harm globally. However, only a few data are available on their prevalence, nature, and severity in developing countries, particularly in Brazil. This study attempts to determine the incidence, nature, and factors associated with medication administration errors observed in a university hospital. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study, conducted in a clinical and surgical unit of a University Hospital in Brazil. Two previously trained professionals directly observed medication preparation and administration for 15 days, 24 h a day, in February 2020. The type of error, the category of the medication involved, according to the anatomical therapeutic chemical classification system, and associated risk factors were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was adopted to identify factors associated with errors. RESULTS: The administration of 561 drug doses was observed. The mean total medication administration error rate was 36.2% (95% confidence interval 32.3-40.2). The main factors associated with time errors were interruptions. Regarding technique errors, the primary factors observed were the route of administration, interruptions, and workload. CONCLUSIONS: Here, we identified a high total medication administration error rate, the most frequent being technique, wrong time, dose, and omission errors. The factors associated with errors were interruptions, route of administration and workload, which agrees well with the results of other national and international studies.
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PURPOSE: This study systematically reviewed studies to determine the frequency and nature of medication administration errors in Latin American hospitals. SUMMARY: We systematically searched the medical literature of seven electronic databases to identify studies on medication administration errors in Latin American hospitals using the direct observation method. Studies published in English, Spanish, or Portuguese between 1946 and March 2021 were included. A total of 10 studies conducted at 22 hospitals were included in the review. Nursing professionals were the most frequently observed during medication administration and were observers in four of the ten included studies. Total number of error opportunities was used as a parameter to calculate error rates. The administration error rate had a median of 32% (interquartile range 16%-35.8%) with high variability in the described frequencies (9%-64%). Excluding time errors, the median error rate was 9.7% (interquartile range 7.4%-29.5%). Four different definitions of medication errors were used in these studies. The most frequently observed errors were time, dose, and omission. Only four studies described the therapeutic classes or groups involved in the errors, with systemic anti-infectives being the most reported. None of the studies assessed the severity or outcome of the errors. The assessment of the overall risk bias revealed that one study had low risk, three had moderate risk, and three had high risk. In the assessment of the exploratory, observational, and before-after studies, two were classified as having fair quality and one as having poor quality. CONCLUSION: The administration error rate in Latin America was high, even when time errors were excluded. The variation observed in the frequencies can be explained by the different contexts in which the study was conducted. Future research using direct observation techniques is necessary to more accurately estimate the nature and severity of medication administration errors.
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Hospitais , Erros de Medicação , Bases de Dados Factuais , Humanos , América Latina , Preparações FarmacêuticasRESUMO
O texto traz uma reflexão sobre a experiência de supervisão acadêmica realizada no âmbito do Projeto Mais Médicos (PMM), em Salvador e Lauro de Freitas, no período de 2019 a 2021, buscando identificar o papel cumprido pelas atividades de supervisão, suas contribuições e seus limites vis-à-vis à competência definida nos documentos oficiais. Para tanto, foram analisados relatórios de supervisão e registros das reuniões de tutoria, os quais foram cotejados com a vivência do autor na função de tutor. Os resultados mostram que a supervisão cumpre o papel de apoiar o desenvolvimento de competências dos médicos atuantes no PMM, mas não alcança o objetivo normativamente definido de promover a integração ensino-serviço. Em suma, a supervisão tem um papel positivo, embora restrito, de fortalecimento da Atenção Básica.
This paper reflects on the experience of academic advisement carried out within the More Doctors Project (PMM) in Salvador and Lauro de Freitas, Brazil, from 2019 to 2021, seeking to identify the role played by advisement activities, their contributions and limitations in relation to the official documents. For this purpose, advisor reports and records of tutoring meetings were analyzed, which were then compared with the author's experience as a tutor. Results show that advising fulfils the role of helping to develop the competences of physicians working in the PMM, but does not reach the normatively defined objective of promoting education-service integration. In short, advisor work has a positive, albeit restricted, role in strengthening Primary Care.
Este texto reflexiona sobre la experiencia de supervisión académica realizada en el ámbito del Proyecto Más Médicos (PMM), en Salvador y Lauro de Freitas (Brasil), de 2019 a 2021, con el fin de identificar el papel de las actividades de supervisión, sus aportes y límites frente a la competencia definida en los documentos oficiales. Para ello, se analizaron informes de supervisión y actas de reuniones de tutoría, los cuales se compararon con la experiencia del autor en el rol de tutor. Los resultados muestran que la supervisión cumple el papel de apoyar el desarrollo de competencias de los médicos que actúan en el PMM, pero no alcanza el objetivo definido normativamente de promover la integración enseñanza-servicio. En definitiva, la supervisión tiene un papel positivo, aunque restringido, en el fortalecimiento de la Atención Primaria.
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Organização e Administração , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Competência Profissional , Ensino , Consórcios de SaúdeRESUMO
This article describes the evolution of municipal financing of the Unified Health System, from 2004 to 2019, considering revenues and expenses from own and non-own sources, analyzes fiscal redistribution, according to population size and average household income, and compares this evolution in two periods, characterized as economic growth (2004-2014) and recession (2015-2019). The study was based on data from the Information System on Public Health Budgets. There was real growth in municipal spending on health from 2004 to 2014 (156.3%), with a drop between 2014 and 2015, followed by a recovery between 2015 and 2019. During the recession period, there was an overall increase in the fiscal dependence of municipalities, indicated by the increase in non-own revenues, even with the decrease in the Federal Government participation in transfers. The growth of own health expenses was lower among municipalities with lower household income, while for non-own expenses it was higher in municipalities with a smaller population size. In short, the results indicate a process of increasing municipal spending on health, as well as the increased fiscal dependence of municipalities to fund health, intensified after the 2015 crisis, which especially affected small and lower income municipalities.
Este artigo descreve a evolução do financiamento municipal do Sistema Único de Saúde, de 2004 a 2019, considerando receitas e despesas de fontes próprias e não-próprias, analisa a redistribuição fiscal, de acordo com o porte populacional e a renda média domiciliar, e compara essa evolução em dois períodos, caracterizados como de crescimento econômico (2004-2014) e de recessão (2015-2019). O estudo se baseou em dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Orçamentos Públicos em Saúde. Constatou-se crescimento real dos gastos municipais em saúde de 2004 a 2014 (156,3%), com queda entre 2014 e 2015, seguida de recuperação até 2019. Na recessão, detectou-se aumento global da dependência fiscal dos municípios, indicada pelo aumento de receitas não-próprias, mesmo com a diminuição da participação da União nas transferências. O crescimento das despesas próprias em saúde foi menor entre os municípios de menor renda domiciliar, enquanto para as despesas não-próprias foi maior nos municípios de menor porte populacional. Em suma, indica-se um processo de incremento dos gastos municipais em saúde, assim como o aumento da dependência fiscal para custeio da saúde, intensificado após a crise de 2015, que atingiu especialmente os municípios de pequeno porte e de menor renda domiciliar.
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Orçamentos , Financiamento Governamental , Brasil , Cidades , Governo Federal , HumanosRESUMO
Resumo Este artigo descreve a evolução do financiamento municipal do Sistema Único de Saúde, de 2004 a 2019, considerando receitas e despesas de fontes próprias e não-próprias, analisa a redistribuição fiscal, de acordo com o porte populacional e a renda média domiciliar, e compara essa evolução em dois períodos, caracterizados como de crescimento econômico (2004-2014) e de recessão (2015-2019). O estudo se baseou em dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Orçamentos Públicos em Saúde. Constatou-se crescimento real dos gastos municipais em saúde de 2004 a 2014 (156,3%), com queda entre 2014 e 2015, seguida de recuperação até 2019. Na recessão, detectou-se aumento global da dependência fiscal dos municípios, indicada pelo aumento de receitas não-próprias, mesmo com a diminuição da participação da União nas transferências. O crescimento das despesas próprias em saúde foi menor entre os municípios de menor renda domiciliar, enquanto para as despesas não-próprias foi maior nos municípios de menor porte populacional. Em suma, indica-se um processo de incremento dos gastos municipais em saúde, assim como o aumento da dependência fiscal para custeio da saúde, intensificado após a crise de 2015, que atingiu especialmente os municípios de pequeno porte e de menor renda domiciliar.
Abstract This article describes the evolution of municipal financing of the Unified Health System, from 2004 to 2019, considering revenues and expenses from own and non-own sources, analyzes fiscal redistribution, according to population size and average household income, and compares this evolution in two periods, characterized as economic growth (2004-2014) and recession (2015-2019). The study was based on data from the Information System on Public Health Budgets. There was real growth in municipal spending on health from 2004 to 2014 (156.3%), with a drop between 2014 and 2015, followed by a recovery between 2015 and 2019. During the recession period, there was an overall increase in the fiscal dependence of municipalities, indicated by the increase in non-own revenues, even with the decrease in the Federal Government participation in transfers. The growth of own health expenses was lower among municipalities with lower household income, while for non-own expenses it was higher in municipalities with a smaller population size. In short, the results indicate a process of increasing municipal spending on health, as well as the increased fiscal dependence of municipalities to fund health, intensified after the 2015 crisis, which especially affected small and lower income municipalities.