RESUMO
The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, a new data driven approach for predicting the Covid-19 pandemic dynamics is introduced. The second contribution consists in reporting and discussing the results that were obtained with this approach for the Brazilian states, with predictions starting as of 4 May 2020. As a preliminary study, we first used an Long Short Term Memory for Data Training-SAE (LSTM-SAE) network model. Although this first approach led to somewhat disappointing results, it served as a good baseline for testing other ANN types. Subsequently, in order to identify relevant countries and regions to be used for training ANN models, we conduct a clustering of the world's regions where the pandemic is at an advanced stage. This clustering is based on manually engineered features representing a country's response to the early spread of the pandemic, and the different clusters obtained are used to select the relevant countries for training the models. The final models retained are Modified Auto-Encoder networks, that are trained on these clusters and learn to predict future data for Brazilian states. These predictions are used to estimate important statistics about the disease, such as peaks and number of confirmed cases. Finally, curve fitting is carried out to find the distribution that best fits the outputs of the MAE, and to refine the estimates of the peaks of the pandemic. Predicted numbers reach a total of more than one million infected Brazilians, distributed among the different states, with São Paulo leading with about 150 thousand confirmed cases predicted. The results indicate that the pandemic is still growing in Brazil, with most states peaks of infection estimated in the second half of May 2020. The estimated end of the pandemics (97% of cases reaching an outcome) spread between June and the end of August 2020, depending on the states.
Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Brasil/epidemiologia , COVID-19 , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Previsões , Humanos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
Path planning for sailboat robots is a challenging task particularly due to the kinematics and dynamics modelling of such kinds of wind propelled boats. The problem is divided into two layers. The first one is global were a general trajectory composed of waypoints is planned, which can be done automatically based on some variables such as weather conditions or defined by hand using some human-robot interface (a ground-station). In the second local layer, at execution time, the global route should be followed by making the sailboat proceed between each pair of consecutive waypoints. Our proposal in this paper is an algorithm for the global, path generation layer, which has been developed for the N-Boat (The Sailboat Robot project), in order to compute feasible sailing routes between a start and a target point while avoiding dangerous situations such as obstacles and borders. A reinforcement learning approach (Q-Learning) is used based on a reward matrix and a set of actions that changes according to wind directions to account for the dead zone, which is the region against the wind where the sailboat can not gain velocity. Our algorithm generates straight and zigzag paths accounting for wind direction. The path generated also guarantees the sailboat safety and robustness, enabling it to sail for long periods of time, depending only on the start and target points defined for this global planning. The result is the development of a complete path planner algorithm that, together with the local planner solved in previous work, can be used to allow the final developments of an N-Boat making it a fully autonomous sailboat.
RESUMO
Problems related to quality (and quantity) of water in natural resources or in artificial reservoirs are frequently arising and are at the center of attention of authorities and governments around the world. Many times the monitoring is not performed in an efficient time frame and a precise manner, whereas the adoption of fast and punctual solutions would undoubtedly improve the water quality and consequently enhance the life of people. To minimize or diminish such kinds of problems, we propose an architecture for sensors installed in a robotic platform, an autonomous sail boat, able to acquire raw data relative to water quality, to process and make them available to people that might be interested in such information. The main contributions are the sensors architecture itself, which uses low cost sensors, with practical experimentation done with a prototype. Results show data collected for points in lakes and rivers in the northeast of Brazil. This embedded system is fixed in the sailboat robot with the intention to facilitate the study of water quality for long endurance missions. This robot can help monitoring water bodies in a more consistent manner. Nonetheless the system can also be used with fixed vases or buoys in strategic points.