RESUMO
This study analyzed the relationship between rainfall, temperature and occurrence of dengue cases. Ecological study performed with autochthonous dengue cases reported during 2003 to 2010 in São Luís, Maranhão. Data of rainfall and temperature were collected monthly. The monthly incidence of dengue cases was calculated by year/100,000 inhabitants. In order to identify the influence of climate variables and dengue cases different distributed lag models using negative binomial distribution were considered. Model selection was based on the lowest AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). Thirteen thousand, four hundred forty-four cases of dengue between 2003 and 2010 were reported, with peaks in 2005, 2007 and 2010. The correlation between rainfall and the occurrence of dengue cases showed increase in the first months after the rainy months. Occurrence of dengue cases was observed during all the period of study. Only rainfall-lag per three months showed a positive association with the number of cases dengue. Thus, this municipality is considered as an endemic and epidemic site. In addition, the relation between rainfall and dengue cases was significant with a lag of three months. These results should be useful to the future development of politics healthy for dengue prevention and control.
Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Chuva , Temperatura , Brasil/epidemiologia , Cidades , Dengue/prevenção & controle , HumanosRESUMO
Abstract This study analyzed the relationship between rainfall, temperature and occurrence of dengue cases. Ecological study performed with autochthonous dengue cases reported during 2003 to 2010 in São Luís, Maranhão. Data of rainfall and temperature were collected monthly. The monthly incidence of dengue cases was calculated by year/100,000 inhabitants. In order to identify the influence of climate variables and dengue cases different distributed lag models using negative binomial distribution were considered. Model selection was based on the lowest AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). Thirteen thousand, four hundred forty-four cases of dengue between 2003 and 2010 were reported, with peaks in 2005, 2007 and 2010. The correlation between rainfall and the occurrence of dengue cases showed increase in the first months after the rainy months. Occurrence of dengue cases was observed during all the period of study. Only rainfall-lag per three months showed a positive association with the number of cases dengue. Thus, this municipality is considered as an endemic and epidemic site. In addition, the relation between rainfall and dengue cases was significant with a lag of three months. These results should be useful to the future development of politics healthy for dengue prevention and control.
Resumo Este estudo analisou a relação entre a pluviosidade, temperatura e ocorrência de casos de dengue. Estudo ecológico, realizado no município de São Luís (MA), com os casos de dengue autóctone notificados no período de 2003 a 2010, e os dados mensais de pluviosidade e temperatura. A incidência mensal de casos de dengue foi calculada por ano/100.000hab. Para a identificação da influência das variáveis climáticas e casos de dengue foram ajustados diferentes modelos de defasagem distribuída, considerando a distribuição binomial negativa. A seleção dos modelos foi baseada no critério AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). Foram notificados 13.444 casos de dengue entre 2003 e 2010, com picos em 2005, 2007 e 2010. A correlação dos índices pluviométricos com a ocorrência da dengue mostrou aumento de casos nos primeiros meses subsequente aos chuvosos. Houve ocorrência de casos de dengue em todo o período estudado, caracterizando o município como endêmico-epidêmico. Além disso, a relação entre casos de dengue e quantidade de chuva foi significativa com defasagem de três meses. Estes resultados são úteis para o desenvolvimento futuro de políticas de saúde para controle e prevenção da dengue.