RESUMO
BACKGROUND: We report prospective associations of baseline risk factors with the first onset and persistence of suicide-related outcomes (SROs; ideation, plans, gestures, and attempts) over a 10-year interval among respondents who participated in both the 1990-02 National Comorbidity Survey (NCS) and the 2000-02 National Comorbidity Survey follow-up (NCS-2). METHODS: A total of 5001 NCS respondents were re-interviewed (87.6% of baseline sample) in the NCS-2. Three sets of baseline (NCS) risk factors were considered as predictors of the first onset and persistence of SROs: socio-demographics, lifetime DSM-III-R disorders, and SROs. RESULTS: New onsets included 6.2% suicide ideation, 2.3% plan, 0.7% gesture, and 0.9% attempts. More than one-third of respondents with a baseline history of suicide ideation continued to have suicide ideation at some time over the intervening decade. Persistence was lower for other SROs. The strongest predictors of later SROs were baseline SROs. Prospective associations of baseline mental disorders with later SROs were largely limited to the onset and persistence of ideation. LIMITATIONS: Although data were gathered prospectively, they were based on retrospective reports at both baseline and follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline history of SROs explained much of the association of mental disorders with later SROs. It is important clinically to note that many of the risk factors known to predict onset of SROs also predict persistence of SROs.
Assuntos
Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adolescente , Adulto , Comorbidade , Demografia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Transtornos Mentais/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Tentativa de Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores de Tempo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Clinical judgments about the likelihood of suicide attempt would be aided by an index of risk factors that could be quickly assessed in diverse settings. We sought to develop such a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts among suicide ideators. METHOD: The National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R), a household survey of adults aged 18+, assessed the 12-month occurrence of suicide ideation, plans and attempts in a subsample of 5692 respondents. Retrospectively assessed correlates include history of prior suicidality, sociodemographics, parental psychopathology and 12-month DSM-IV disorders. RESULTS: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans and attempts are 2.6, 0.7 and 0.4% respectively. Although ideators with a plan are more likely to make an attempt (31.9%) than those without a plan (9.6%), 43% of attempts were described as unplanned. History of prior attempts is the strongest correlate of 12-month attempts. Other significant correlates include shorter duration of ideation, presence of a suicide plan, and several sociodemographic and parental psychopathology variables. Twelve-month disorders are not powerful correlates. A four-category summary index of correlates is strongly related to attempts among ideators [area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC)=0.88]. The distribution (conditional probability of attempt) of the risk index is: 19.0% very low (0.0%), 51.1% low (3.5%), 16.2% intermediate (21.3%), and 13.7% high (78.1%). Two-thirds (67.1%) of attempts were made by ideators in the high-risk category. CONCLUSIONS: A short, preliminary risk index based on retrospectively reported responses to fully structured questions is strongly correlated with 12-month suicide attempts among ideators, with a high concentration of attempts among high-risk ideators.