RESUMO
Eucalyptus plantations around the world have been largely used by the paper industry. Optimizing the management of resources is a common practice in this highly competitive industry and new forest growth models may help to understand the impact of climate change on the decisions of the optimization processes. Current optimized management plans use empirical equations to predict future forest stands growth, and it is currently impractical to replace these empirical equations with physiological models due to data input requirements. In this paper, we present a different approach, by first carrying out a preliminary assessment with the process-based physiological model 3PG to evaluate the growth of Eucalyptus stands under climate change predictions. The information supplied by 3PG was then injected as a modifier in the projected yield that feeds the management plan optimizer allowing the interpretation of climate change impacts on the management plan. Modelling results show that although a general increase of rain with climate change is predicted, the distribution throughout the year will not favor the tree growth. On the contrary, rain will increase when it is less needed (summer) and decrease when it is most needed (winter), decreasing forest stand productivity between 3 and 5%, depending on the region and soil. Evaluation of the current optimized plan that kept constant the relation between wood price/cellulose ton shows a variation in different strategic management options and an overall increase of costs in owned areas between 2 and 4%, and a decrease of cumulated net present value, initially at 15% with later stabilization at 6-8%. This is a basic comparison to observe climate change effects; nevertheless, it provides insights into how the entire decision-making process may change due to a reduction in biomass production under future climate scenarios. This work demonstrates the use of physiological models to extract information that could be merged with existing and already implemented empirical models. The methodology may also be considered a preliminary alternative to the complete replacement of empirical models by physiological models. Our approach allows some insight into forest responses to different future climate conditions, something which empirical models are not designed for.
RESUMO
In eucalyptus plantations, the presence of understory increases the risk of fires, acts as an obstacle to forest operations, and leads to yield losses due to competition. The objective of this study was to develop an approach to discriminate the presence or absence of understory in eucalyptus plantations based on airborne laser scanning surveys. The bimodal canopy height profile was modeled by two Weibull density functions: one to model the canopy, and other to model the understory. The parameters used as predictor in the logistic model successfully discriminated the presence or absence of understory. The logistic model composed by ℽ canopy, ℽ understory, and ℽ understory showed higher values of accuracy (0.96) and kappa (0.92), which means an adequate classification of presence of understory and absence of understory. Weibull parameters could be used as input in the logistic regression to effectively identify the presence and absence of understory in eucalyptus plantation.
Assuntos
Controle de Plantas Daninhas/métodos , Eucalyptus , Árvores , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento RemotoRESUMO
In eucalyptus plantations, the presence of understory increases the risk of fires, acts as an obstacle to forest operations, and leads to yield losses due to competition. The objective of this study was to develop an approach to discriminate the presence or absence of understory in eucalyptus plantations based on airborne laser scanning surveys. The bimodal canopy height profile was modeled by two Weibull density functions: one to model the canopy, and other to model the understory. The parameters used as predictor in the logistic model successfully discriminated the presence or absence of understory. The logistic model composed by ℽ canopy, ℽ understory, and ℽ understory showed higher values of accuracy (0.96) and kappa (0.92), which means an adequate classification of presence of understory and absence of understory. Weibull parameters could be used as input in the logistic regression to effectively identify the presence and absence of understory in eucalyptus plantation.(AU)
Assuntos
Eucalyptus , Árvores , Controle de Plantas Daninhas/métodos , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento RemotoRESUMO
This study aimed to map the stem biomass of an even-aged eucalyptus plantation in southeastern Brazil based on canopy height profile (CHPs) statistics using wall-to-wall discrete return airborne laser scanning (ALS), and compare the results with alternative maps generated by ordinary kriging interpolation from field-derived measurements. The assessment of stem biomass with ALS data was carried out using regression analysis methods. Initially, CHPs were determined to express the distribution of laser point heights in the ALS cloud for each sample plot. The probability density function (pdf) used was the Weibull distribution, with two parameters that in a secondary task, were used as explanatory variables to model stem biomass. ALS metrics such as height percentiles, dispersion of heights, and proportion of points were also investigated. A simple linear regression model of stem biomass as a function of the Weibull scale parameter showed high correlation (adj.R2 = 0.89). The alternative model considering the 30th percentile and the Weibull shape parameter slightly improved the quality of the estimation (adj.R2 = 0.93). Stem biomass maps based on the Weibull scale parameter doubled the accuracy of the ordinary kriging approach (relative root mean square error = 6 % and 13 %, respectively).
Assuntos
Biomassa , Eucalyptus , Eucalyptus/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Identificação Biométrica/métodos , Microscopia Confocal , Microscopia Confocal/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
This study aimed to map the stem biomass of an even-aged eucalyptus plantation in southeastern Brazil based on canopy height profile (CHPs) statistics using wall-to-wall discrete return airborne laser scanning (ALS), and compare the results with alternative maps generated by ordinary kriging interpolation from field-derived measurements. The assessment of stem biomass with ALS data was carried out using regression analysis methods. Initially, CHPs were determined to express the distribution of laser point heights in the ALS cloud for each sample plot. The probability density function (pdf) used was the Weibull distribution, with two parameters that in a secondary task, were used as explanatory variables to model stem biomass. ALS metrics such as height percentiles, dispersion of heights, and proportion of points were also investigated. A simple linear regression model of stem biomass as a function of the Weibull scale parameter showed high correlation (adj.R2 = 0.89). The alternative model considering the 30th percentile and the Weibull shape parameter slightly improved the quality of the estimation (adj.R2 = 0.93). Stem biomass maps based on the Weibull scale parameter doubled the accuracy of the ordinary kriging approach (relative root mean square error = 6 % and 13 %, respectively).(AU)