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Early prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for Zika disease outbreaks can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. The Richards model is often been used to estimate epidemiological parameters for arboviral diseases based on the reported cumulative cases in single- and multi-wave outbreaks. However, other non-linear models can also fit the data as well. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this paper we focus on the estimation of the final size and the turning point of the epidemic and conduct a real-time prediction for the final size of the outbreak using several non-linear models in which these parameters are estimated via model averaging. The proposed method is applied to Zika outbreak data in four cities from Colombia, during the outbreak ocurred in 2015-2016.

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Comparison of different methods in order to identify Proteus spp. The objectives were: (a) to identify Proteus strains to species level, following Farmer's and O'Hara's conventional biochemical reactions; b) to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of both the API 20E method and a schema of reduced reactions (TSI and MIO agar: motility, indole and ornithine) comparing them with conventional methodology, and c) to evaluate the utility of SDS-PAGE (total proteins) in order to identify Proteus strains to species level. Two hundred and five Proteus spp. clinical isolates, were collected between January 1998 and September 2004, from inpatients and outpatients at Hospital de Clinicas. Strains were identified by means of conventional methodology, the API 20E method, and a schema of reduced reactions. SDS-PAGE (total proteins) was used in 48 out of the 205 strains. The API 20E method identified 79 out of 87 (90.8%) strains of P. mirabilis, 103 out of 103 P. vulgaris complex, and 15 out of 15 P. penneri. Eight strains of P. mirabilis were identified as Proteus spp., the acid production from maltose being necessary to identify them to species level. The schema of reduced reactions identified 205 out of 205 (100%) strains, that is, this schema of reduced reactions identified all the strains to species level without any additional tests, in marked contrast to the API 20E method. The SDS-PAGE (total proteins) identified the three species of the genus, even if the strains of P. mirabilis showed different biochemical reactions.

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Los objetivos de este trabajo fueron: a) identificar a nivel de especie aislamientos de Proteus siguiendo la combinación de los esquemas de Farmer y O'Hara; b) determinar la utilidad del sistema comercial API 20E y de un esquema reducido de pruebas (agar TSI y agar MIO: movilidad, indol y ornitina), comparar estos procedimientos con la metodología convencional y evaluar su sensibilidad y especificidad, y c) evaluar la utilidad del perfil proteico en la identificación de las distintas especies. Se estudiaron 205 aislamientos de Proteus spp. aislados en el período comprendido entre enero de 1998 y setiembre de 2004, recuperados de distintos materiales clínicos correspondientes a pacientes hospitalizados y ambulatorios atendidos en el Hospital de Clínicas. Los organismos fueron identificados mediante la metodología convencional, por el sistema API 20E y con un esquema reducido de pruebas; 48 de ellos fueron sometidos a un SDS-PAGE. API 20E identificó 79 de 87 aislamientos de P. mirabilis (90,8%), 103/103 del complejo P. vulgaris y 15/15 de P. penneri. Ocho aislamientos identificados como Proteus spp. resultaron ser P. mirabilis, al incluir una prueba adicional (maltosa). En la identificación, el esquema reducido coincidió en un 100% con la metodología convencional. A diferencia del sistema API 20E, el esquema reducido alcanza la correcta identificación de todas las especies en laboratorios de baja complejidad, sin la necesidad de pruebas adicionales. El perfil proteico permitió la correcta diferenciación de las tres especies, independientemente de las diferentes atipias de P. mirabilis.

The objectives were: a) to identify Proteus strains to species level, following Farmer's and O'Hara's conventional biochemical reactions; b) to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of both the API 20E method and a schema of reduced reactions (TSI and MIO agar: motility, indole and ornithine) comparing them with conventional methodology, and c) to evaluate the utility of SDS-PAGE (total proteins) in order to identify Proteus strains to species level. Two hundred and five Proteus spp. clinical isolates, were collected between January 1998 and September 2004, from inpatients and outpatients at Hospital de Clínicas. Strains were identified by means of conventional methodology, the API 20E method, and a schema of reduced reactions. SDS-PAGE (total proteins) was used in 48 out of the 205 strains. The API 20E method identified 79 out of 87 (90.8%) strains of P. mirabilis, 103 out of 103 P. vulgaris complex, and 15 out of 15 P. penneri. Eight strains of P. mirabilis were identified as Proteus spp., the acid production from maltose being necessary to identify them to species level. The schema of reduced reactions identified 205 out of 205 (100%) strains, that is, this schema of reduced reactions identified all the strains to species level without any additional tests, in marked contrast to the API 20E method. The SDS-PAGE (total proteins) identified the three species of the genus, even if the strains of P. mirabilis showed different biochemical reactions.

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The ability of the API Coryne system, version 2.0, to identify 178 strains of gram-positive rods was evaluated. Seventy eight isolates belonged to genus Corynebacterium and one hundred to related genera, all strains were isolated from clinical samples at the Laboratory of Bacteriology, Hospital de Clínicas José de San Martin (UBA) between 1995 and 2004. The isolates were identified according to von Graevenitz and Funke's scheme. One hundred and sixty two out of 178 strains (91%) were correctly identified at genus and species level (IC95 = 85.6-94.6), in 44 of them (24.7%) additional tests were needed to final identification. Sixteen strains (9%) were not correctly identified (IC95 = 5.4-14.4); none of the 178 strains remained unidentified. The API Coryne system, version 2.0, is useful to identify the majority of Cory-nebacterium species with clinical relevance: Corynebacterium jeikeium, Corynebacterium urealyticum, Corynebacterium striatum, Corynebacterium pseudodiphtheriticum, Corynebacterium amycolatum and related species such as Arcanobacterium haemolyticum, Dermabacter hominis, Listeria monocytogenes, among others. Nevertheless for yellow-pigmented diphteroid gram-positive rods (Aureobacterium spp., Leifsonia aquatica, Microbacterium spp. and Cellulomonas spp.) and for acid fast gram-positive rods (Rhodococcus, Gordonia, Tsukamurella and Nocardia) the identification usefulness the system is limited.

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A new method, based on the measurement of the (23 )( )Na nuclei spin-spin NMR relaxation times ( T2 ), is proposed to investigate the shape of micelles in lyotropic nematic phases. We investigate the ternary lyotropic mixture of sodium dodecyl sulfate, 1-decanol, and water by using the NMR technique, measuring T2 in the two lyotropic uniaxial nematic phases. The characteristic relaxation time curves of each particular phase are analyzed by considering that they are constituted by a superposition of exponential decays with typical characteristic times: in a sense, a T2 spectroscopy. The analysis of the T2 dispersion profiles in both the uniaxial nematic calamitic and discotic phases indicates that our results can be interpreted in terms of the model of intrinsically biaxial micelles in all the nematic phases.

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A nuclear magnetic resonance study of protons and deuterons in the mesomorphic phases of the micellar lyotropic mixture potassium laurate/1-decanol/heavy water is reported. The slow dynamical behavior of water molecules has been investigated with deuterons spin-lattice relaxation dispersion in the Larmor frequency range 10(3)

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The Cuban vaccine, first in the world with proven efficacy against group B-caused disease, is based on outer membrane proteins from B meningococci capable of inducing long-lasting and high-titered bactericidal antibodies in humans. This bactericidal activity has a wide spectrum against all pathogenic group B Neisseria meningitidis tested. A randomized, double-blind controlled trial of the vaccine efficacy was performed during 1987-1989 with 106,000 10-14 years old students from 197 boarding schools in seven provinces. The efficacy obtained was 83% (chi 2, p less than 0.002; Fischer exact, p less than 0.001). In a second field trial including 133,600 persons from 5 months to 24 years of age in Ciego de Avila province (30 cases/10(5) inhabitants, the highest incidence rate in Cuba) by comparing vaccinated and non-vaccinated population after 2.5 years of observation and careful follow-up, the efficacy and safety was confirmed. Because of these results and because of the very low reactogenicity of the vaccine, the Ministry of Public Health took the advice of the Scientific Council to vaccinate all children between 3 months and 6 years of age in the most affected provinces. No severe or long lasting reactions to the vaccine were observed after the millions of doses administered. The efficacy of vaccination varied in the provinces between 83% and 94%, among age groups ranging from 3 months and 20 years. After 3 years of massive application no severe reactions occurred and one of the most severe epidemics has been practically eradicated.

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