RESUMO
In July 2020, the Mexican Government initiated the National Program for Elimination of Hepatitis C (HCV) under a procurement agreement, securing universal, free access to HCV screening, diagnosis and treatment for 2020-2022. This analysis quantifies the clinical and economic burden of HCV (MXN) under a continuation (or end) to the agreement. A modelling and Delphi approach was used to evaluate the disease burden (2020-2030) and economic impact (2020-2035) of the Historical Base compared to Elimination, assuming the agreement continues (Elimination-Agreement to 2035) or terminates (Elimination-Agreement to 2022). We estimated cumulative costs and the per-patient treatment expenditure needed to achieve net-zero cost (the difference in cumulative costs between the scenario and the base). Elimination is defined as a 90% reduction in new infections, 90% diagnosis coverage, 80% treatment coverage and 65% reduction in mortality by 2030. A viraemic prevalence of 0.55% (0.50-0.60) was estimated on 1st January 2021, corresponding to 745,000 (95% CI 677,000-812,000) viraemic infections in Mexico. The Elimination-Agreement to 2035 would achieve net-zero cost by 2023 and accrue 31.2 billion in cumulative costs. Cumulative costs under the Elimination-Agreement to 2022 are estimated at 74.2 billion. Under Elimination-Agreement to 2022, the per-patient treatment price must decrease to 11,000 to achieve net-zero cost by 2035. The Mexican Government could extend the agreement through 2035 or reduce the cost of HCV treatment to 11,000 to achieve HCV elimination at net-zero cost.
Assuntos
Hepatite C Crônica , Hepatite C , Humanos , Hepatite C Crônica/diagnóstico , Hepatite C Crônica/epidemiologia , Hepatite C Crônica/prevenção & controle , Análise Custo-Benefício , México/epidemiologia , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Hepatite C/diagnóstico , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Hepatite C/prevenção & controle , Hepacivirus , Antivirais/uso terapêuticoRESUMO
ABSTRACT Introduction and aim: Hepatitis C is a key challenge to public health in Brazil. The objective of this paper was to describe the Brazilian strategy for hepatitis C to meet the 2030 elimination goal proposed by World Health Organization (WHO). Methods: A mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the current HCV-infected Brazilian population, and to evaluate the relative costs of two different scenarios to address HCV disease burden in Brazil: (1) if no further changes are made to the HCV treatment program in Brazil; (2) where the WHO targets for 2030 elimination are met through diagnosis and treatment efforts peaking before 2024. Results: An anti-HCV prevalence of 0.53% was calculated for the total population. It was estimated that the number of HCV-RNA+ individuals in Brazil in 2017 was 632,000 (0.31% of the population). Scale-up of treatment and diagnosis over time will be necessary in order to achieve WHO targets beginning in 2018. Direct costs (diagnostic, treatment and healthcare costs) are projected to increase significantly during the scale-up of treatment and diagnosis in the initial years of the intervention scenario, but then fall below the base case on an annual basis by 2025-2036, once HCV is eliminated, due to health sectors savings from the prevention of HCV liver-related morbidity and mortality. Conclusion: Achieving the WHO targets is technically feasible in Brazil with a scale-up of treatment and diagnosis over time, beginning in 2018. However, elimination of hepatitis C requires policy changes to substantially scale-up prevention, screening and treatment of HCV, together with public health advocacy to raise awareness among affected populations and healthcare providers.
Assuntos
Humanos , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Criança , Adolescente , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Adulto Jovem , Hepatite C/prevenção & controle , Hepacivirus/genética , Erradicação de Doenças/economia , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Brasil/epidemiologia , Incidência , Hepatite C/economia , Hepatite C/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Genótipo , Modelos TeóricosRESUMO
INTRODUCTION AND AIM: Hepatitis C is a key challenge to public health in Brazil. The objective of this paper was to describe the Brazilian strategy for hepatitis C to meet the 2030 elimination goal proposed by World Health Organization (WHO). METHODS: A mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the current HCV-infected Brazilian population, and to evaluate the relative costs of two different scenarios to address HCV disease burden in Brazil: (1) if no further changes are made to the HCV treatment program in Brazil; (2) where the WHO targets for 2030 elimination are met through diagnosis and treatment efforts peaking before 2024. RESULTS: An anti-HCV prevalence of 0.53% was calculated for the total population. It was estimated that the number of HCV-RNA+ individuals in Brazil in 2017 was 632,000 (0.31% of the population). Scale-up of treatment and diagnosis over time will be necessary in order to achieve WHO targets beginning in 2018. Direct costs (diagnostic, treatment and healthcare costs) are projected to increase significantly during the scale-up of treatment and diagnosis in the initial years of the intervention scenario, but then fall below the base case on an annual basis by 2025-2036, once HCV is eliminated, due to health sectors savings from the prevention of HCV liver-related morbidity and mortality. CONCLUSION: Achieving the WHO targets is technically feasible in Brazil with a scale-up of treatment and diagnosis over time, beginning in 2018. However, elimination of hepatitis C requires policy changes to substantially scale-up prevention, screening and treatment of HCV, together with public health advocacy to raise awareness among affected populations and healthcare providers.
Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças/economia , Hepacivirus/genética , Hepatite C/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Brasil/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Genótipo , Hepatite C/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C/economia , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are highly prevalent in the United States, where they are a growing cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and increasingly an indicator for liver transplantation. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD disease progression. Incidence of NAFLD was based on historical and projected changes in adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Assumptions were derived from published literature where available and validated using national surveillance data for incidence of NAFLD-related HCC. Projected changes in NAFLD-related cirrhosis, advanced liver disease, and liver-related mortality were quantified through 2030. Prevalent NAFLD cases are forecasted to increase 21%, from 83.1 million (2015) to 100.9 million (2030), while prevalent NASH cases will increase 63% from 16.52 million to 27.00 million cases. Overall NAFLD prevalence among the adult population (aged ≥15 years) is projected at 33.5% in 2030, and the median age of the NAFLD population will increase from 50 to 55 years during 2015-2030. In 2015, approximately 20% of NAFLD cases were classified as NASH, increasing to 27% by 2030, a reflection of both disease progression and an aging population. Incidence of decompensated cirrhosis will increase 168% to 105,430 cases by 2030, while incidence of HCC will increase by 137% to 12,240 cases. Liver deaths will increase 178% to an estimated 78,300 deaths in 2030. During 2015-2030, there are projected to be nearly 800,000 excess liver deaths. CONCLUSION: With continued high rates of adult obesity and DM along with an aging population, NAFLD-related liver disease and mortality will increase in the United States. Strategies to slow the growth of NAFLD cases and therapeutic options are necessary to mitigate disease burden. (Hepatology 2018;67:123-133).
Assuntos
Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiologia , Cadeias de Markov , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/economia , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/epidemiologia , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Progressão da Doença , Feminino , Humanos , Neoplasias Hepáticas/economia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/patologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/patologia , Prevalência , Medição de Risco , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Distribuição por Sexo , Análise de Sobrevida , Estados UnidosRESUMO
AIM: To estimate the progression of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic and measure the burden of HCV-related morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Age- and gender-defined cohorts were used to follow the viremic population in Argentina and estimate HCV incidence, prevalence, hepatic complications, and mortality. The relative impact of two scenarios on HCV-related outcomes was assessed: (1) increased sustained virologic response (SVR); and (2) increased SVR and treatment. RESULTS: Under scenario 1, SVR raised to 85%-95% in 2016. Compared to the base case scenario, there was a 0.3% reduction in prevalent cases and liver-related deaths by 2030. Given low treatment rates, cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis decreased < 1%, in contrast to the base case in 2030. Under scenario 2, the same increases in SVR were modeled, with gradual increases in the annual diagnosed and treated populations. This scenario decreased prevalent infections 45%, liver-related deaths 55%, liver cancer cases 60%, and decompensated cirrhosis 55%, as compared to the base case by 2030. CONCLUSION: In Argentina, cases of end stage liver disease and liver-related deaths due to HCV are still growing, while its prevalence is decreasing. Increasing in SVR rates is not enough, and increasing in the number of patients diagnosed and candidates for treatment is needed to reduce the HCV disease burden. Based on this scenario, strategies to increase diagnosis and treatment uptake must be developed to reduce HCV burden in Argentina.
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Background: Hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of cirrhosis; hepatocellular carcinoma; and liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to estimate hepatitis C virus disease progression and the burden of disease from a nationwide perspective.Methods: Using a model developed to forecast hepatitis C virus disease progression and the number of cases at each stage of liver disease; hepatitis C virus-infected population and associated disease progression in Brazil were quantified. The impact of two different strategies was compared: higher sustained virological response and treatment eligibility rates (1) or higher diagnosis and treatment rates associated with increased sustained virological response rates (2).Results: The number of infected individuals is estimated to decline by 35% by 2030 (1,255,000 individuals); while the number of cases of compensated (n= 325,900) and decompen- sated (n= 45,000) cirrhosis; hepatocellular carcinoma (n= 19,100); and liver-related deaths (n= 16,700) is supposed to peak between 2028 and 2032. In strategy 2; treated cases increased over tenfold in 2020 (118,800 treated) as compared to 2013 (11,740 treated); with sustained virological response increased to 90% and treatment eligibility to 95%. Under this strategy; the number of infected individuals decreased by 90% between 2013 and 2030. Compared to the base case; liver-related deaths decreased by 70% by 2030; while hepatitis C virus-related liver cancer and decompensated cirrhosis decreased by 75 and 80%; respectively.Conclusions: While the incidence and prevalence of hepatitis C virus in Brazil are decreasing; cases of advanced liver disease continue to rise. Besides higher sustained virological response rates; new strategies focused on increasing the proportion of diagnosed patients and eligibility to treatment should be adopted in order to reduce the burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Brazil.
Assuntos
Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto Jovem , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/virologia , Hepatite C Crônica/complicações , Cirrose Hepática/virologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/virologia , Antivirais , Brasil/epidemiologia , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/epidemiologia , Progressão da Doença , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C Crônica/epidemiologia , Incidência , Cirrose Hepática/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiologia , Transplante de Fígado , Modelos Teóricos , Prevalência , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of cirrhosis; hepatocellular carcinoma; and liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to estimate hepatitis C virus disease progression and the burden of disease from a nationwide perspective. METHODS: Using a model developed to forecast hepatitis C virus disease progression and the number of cases at each stage of liver disease; hepatitis C virus-infected population and associated disease progression in Brazil were quantified. The impact of two different strategies was compared: higher sustained virological response and treatment eligibility rates (1) or higher diagnosis and treatment rates associated with increased sustained virological response rates (2). RESULTS: The number of infected individuals is estimated to decline by 35% by 2030 (1,255,000 individuals); while the number of cases of compensated (n=325,900) and decompensated (n=45,000) cirrhosis; hepatocellular carcinoma (n=19,100); and liver-related deaths (n=16,700) is supposed to peak between 2028 and 2032. In strategy 2; treated cases increased over tenfold in 2020 (118,800 treated) as compared to 2013 (11,740 treated); with sustained virological response increased to 90% and treatment eligibility to 95%. Under this strategy; the number of infected individuals decreased by 90% between 2013 and 2030. Compared to the base case; liver-related deaths decreased by 70% by 2030; while hepatitis C virus-related liver cancer and decompensated cirrhosis decreased by 75 and 80%; respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While the incidence and prevalence of hepatitis C virus in Brazil are decreasing; cases of advanced liver disease continue to rise. Besides higher sustained virological response rates; new strategies focused on increasing the proportion of diagnosed patients and eligibility to treatment should be adopted in order to reduce the burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Brazil.
Assuntos
Carcinoma Hepatocelular/virologia , Hepatite C Crônica/complicações , Cirrose Hepática/virologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/virologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Antivirais , Brasil/epidemiologia , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Progressão da Doença , Feminino , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C Crônica/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Cirrose Hepática/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiologia , Transplante de Fígado , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Prevalência , Fatores de Risco , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIM: The purpose of the present investigation is to provide an analysis of previous works on the epidemiology of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection from six countries throughout Latin America, to forecast the future HCV prevalence trends in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Puerto Rico, and to outline deficiencies in available data, highlighting the need for further research. METHODS: Data references were identified through indexed journals and non-indexed sources. Overall, 1080 articles were reviewed and 150 were selected based on their relevance to this work. When multiple data sources were available for a key assumption, a systematic process using multi-objective decision analysis (MODA) was used to select the most appropriate sources. When data were missing, analogues were used. Data from other countries with similar risk factors and/or population compositions were used as a proxy to help predict the future trends in prevalence. RESULTS: The review indicates that the dominant genotype is type 1. HCV prevalence in the analysed countries ranges from 1 to 2.3%. The Latin American countries have been very proactive in screening their blood supplies, thus minimizing the risk of transmission through transfusion. This suggests that other risk factors are set to play a major role in continued new infections. The number of diagnosed and treated patients is low, thereby increasing the burden of complications such as liver cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. The HCV prevalence, according to our modelling is steady or increasing and the number of infected individuals will increase. CONCLUSIONS: The results herein reported should provide a foundation for informed planning efforts to tackle hepatitis.