RESUMO

We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.

RESUMO

Anurans are a highly diverse group in the Atlantic Forest hotspot (AF), yet distribution patterns and species richness gradients are not randomly distributed throughout the biome. Thus, we explore how anuran species are distributed in this complex and biodiverse hotspot, and hypothesize that this group can be distinguished by different cohesive regions. We used range maps of 497 species to obtain a presence/absence data grid, resolved to 50×50 km grain size, which was submitted to k-means clustering with v-fold cross-validation to determine the biogeographic regions. We also explored the extent to which current environmental variables, topography, and floristic structure of the AF are expected to identify the cluster patterns recognized by the k-means clustering. The biogeographic patterns found for amphibians are broadly congruent with ecoregions identified in the AF, but their edges, and sometimes the whole extent of some clusters, present much less resolved pattern compared to previous classification. We also identified that climate, topography, and vegetation structure of the AF explained a high percentage of variance of the cluster patterns identified, but the magnitude of the regression coefficients shifted regarding their importance in explaining the variance for each cluster. Specifically, we propose that the anuran fauna of the AF can be split into four biogeographic regions: a) less diverse and widely-ranged species that predominantly occur in the inland semideciduous forests; b) northern small-ranged species that presumably evolved within the Pleistocene forest refugia; c) highly diverse and small-ranged species from the southeastern Brazilian mountain chain and its adjacent semideciduous forest; and d) southern species from the Araucaria forest. Finally, the high congruence among the cluster patterns and previous eco-regions identified for the AF suggests that preserving the underlying habitat structure helps to preserve the historical and ecological signals that underlie the geographic distribution of AF anurans.

Assuntos

RESUMO

In agricultural landscapes, studies that identify factors driving species richness and occupancy are important because they can guide farmers to use conservation practices that minimize species loss. In this context, anurans are threatened by habitat loss because they depend on the characteristics of both local water bodies and adjacent landscapes. We used a model selection approach to evaluate the influence of local and landscape variables in determining anuran species richness and occurrence in 40 freshwater bodies in a heavily deforested region of semideciduous Atlantic Forest in southeastern Brazil. Our aim was to develop recommendations for conservation of anuran communities in rural areas. Pond hydroperiod and area were the most important variables for explaining anuran species richness and occupancy, with greatest species richness being found in water bodies with intermediate hydroperiod and area. Other important variables that reflected individual species occupancies were the number of vegetation types and pond isolation. In addition, recent studies evidenced that water bodies near forest fragments have higher anuran abundance or diversity. In conclusion, we suggest the maintenance of semi-permanent ponds, isolated from large rivers or reservoirs and near forest fragments, as an effective strategy to conserve anuran fauna in agricultural landscapes of southeastern Brazil. Brazilian government requires the maintenance of forests as legal reserve in each farm, and farmers need to maintain ponds as drinking water for cattle or crop irrigation. For this reason, the guidelines suggested in the present study can be easily adopted, without additional costs to rural productivity.

Assuntos