RESUMO

A month-long wastewater sampling project was conducted along the northeast periphery of Mexico City, specifically in the state of Hidalgo, to assess the presence of SARS-CoV-2. To determine the prevalence of infection and obtain a range of COVID-19 cases in the main metropolitan zones. Viral RNA residues (0-197,655 copies/L) were measured in wastewater from the five central municipalities in the state. By recording the number of RNA viral copies per liter, micro-basins delimitation, demographic and physiological data, an interval of infected people and virus prevalence was estimated using a Monte Carlo model (with 90% confidence) in the micro-basin of five municipalities with metropolitan influence or industrial activity. Our procedure determined that the percentage of the infected population ranges from 1.4% to 41.7%, while the official data reports 0.1-0.3%. This model is proposed as a helpful method of regional epidemiological monitoring through the analysis of viral prevalence.

Assuntos

RESUMO

The novel COVID-19, detected in Wuhan, China, has reached almost every city across the globe, and researchers from many countries have used several epidemiologic models to describe the epidemic trends. In this context, it is also important to know the geographic extent of the infected population. Following this approach, a Gumpertz model was adapted with official data from the state of Hidalgo, Mexico, in order to estimate the people infected during this COVID-19 pandemic. We found, based on the adjusted data, the highest value in infected people according to official and theoretical data. Furthermore, using a geographical analysis based on geostatistical measures related to density of demographic and economic data, traffic level and geolocation, raster files were generated to estimate probability of coronavirus cases occurrence using the areas where the contagion may occur. We also distributed the maximum contagion obtained by the epidemic model, using these raster files, and a regression model to weight factors according their importance. Based on this estimated distribution, we found that most of the infected people were located in the southern border, a trend related to the economic strip in the southern part of Hidalgo State, associated with its vicinity to the Megacity of Mexico.