RESUMO
A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Solanum tuberosum , Biomassa , Bolívia , Dinamarca , Modelos Teóricos , WashingtonRESUMO
The Thermosbaenacea, a small taxon of crustaceans inhabiting subterranean waters, are unique among malacostracans as they brood their offspring dorsally under the carapace. This habit is of evolutionary interest but the last detailed report on thermosbaenacean development is more than 40 years old. Here we provide new observations on an ovigerous female of Tulumella unidens with advanced developmental stages in its brood chamber collected from an anchialine cave at the Yucatan Peninsula, which is only the third report on developmental stages of Thermosbaenacea and the first for the genus Tulumella. Significant in a wider crustacean context, we report and discuss hitherto unexplored lobate structures inside the brood chamber of the female originating at the first (maxilliped) and second thoracic segments, which are most likely modified epipods, perhaps serving as gills. At the posterior margin of carapace of the female are rows of large spines preventing the developing stages from falling out. The external morphology of the advanced developmental stages is described in much detail, providing information on e.g., carapace formation and early limb morphology. Among the hitherto unknown structures in the advanced developmental stages provided by this study are the presence of an embryonic dorsal organ and rudimentary 'naupliar processes' of the second antennae. Since most hypotheses on crustacean (and malacostracan and peracaridan) relationship rest on external limb morphology, we use early limb bud morphology of Tulumella to better establish thermosbaenacean limb homologies to those of other crustaceans, which is a necessary basis for future morphology based phylogenetic considerations.
Assuntos
Cavernas , Crustáceos/ultraestrutura , Animais , Crustáceos/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Embrião não Mamífero/ultraestrutura , Feminino , México , Boca/ultraestrutura , FilogeniaRESUMO
The post-embryonic development of a species of the enigmatic crustacean group Remipedia is described in detail for the first time under various aspects. Applying a molecular approach, we can clearly prove the species identity of the larvae as belonging to Pleomothra apletocheles. We document the cellular level of several larval stages and the differentiation of segments, limbs, and the general body morphology applying the techniques of confocal laser scanning microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. In addition, we document the swimming behavior and the peculiar movements of the naupliar appendages. A comparison of our results with published data on other Crustacea and their larval development tentatively supports ideas about phylogenetic affinities of the Remipedia to the Malacostraca.