RESUMO
The spread of Zika virus in the Americas has been associated with a surge in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) cases. Given the severity of GBS, territories affected by Zika virus need to plan health-care resources to manage GBS patients. To inform such planning in Martinique, we analyzed Zika virus surveillance and GBS data from Martinique in real time with a modeling framework that captured dynamics of the Zika virus epidemic, the risk of GBS in Zika virus-infected persons, and the clinical management of GBS cases. We compared our estimates with those from the 2013-2014 Zika virus epidemic in French Polynesia. We were able to predict just a few weeks into the epidemic that, due to lower transmission potential and lower probability of developing GBS following infection in Martinique, the total number of GBS cases in Martinique would be substantially lower than suggested by simple extrapolations from French Polynesia. We correctly predicted that 8 intensive-care beds and 7 ventilators would be sufficient to treat GBS cases. This study showcased the contribution of modeling to inform local health-care planning during an outbreak. Timely studies that estimate the proportion of infected persons that seek care are needed to improve the predictive power of such approaches.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Síndrome de Guillain-Barré/epidemiologia , Planejamento em Saúde/organização & administração , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Síndrome de Guillain-Barré/etiologia , Planejamento em Saúde/métodos , Humanos , Martinica/epidemiologia , Avaliação das Necessidades , Polinésia/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/complicaçõesRESUMO
Following of the emergence of Zika virus in Brazil in 2015, an epidemiological surveillance system was quickly implemented in the French overseas Territories of America (FTA) according to previous experience with dengue and chikungunya and has detected first cases of Zika. General practitioners and medical microbiologists were invited to report all clinically suspected cases of Zika, laboratory investigations were systematically conducted (RT-PCR). On 18 December, the first autochthonous case of Zika virus infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on French Guiana and Martinique, indicating introduction of Zika virus in FTA. The viral circulation of Zika virus was then also confirmed on Guadeloupe and Saint-Martin. We report here early findings on 203 confirmed cases of Zika virus infection identified by RT-PCR or seroneutralisation on Martinique Island between 24 November 2015 and 20 January 2016. All cases were investigated. Common clinical signs were observed (maculopapular rash, arthralgia, fever, myalgia and conjunctival hyperaemia) among these patients, but the rash, the foundation of our case definition, may be absent in a significant proportion of patients (16%). These results are important for the implementation of a suspected case definition, the main tool for epidemiological surveillance, in territories that may be affected by ZIKV emergence, including Europe.
Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Vigilância da População , Infecção por Zika virus/diagnóstico , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Zika virus/isolamento & purificação , Humanos , Martinica/epidemiologia , RNA Viral/genética , RNA Viral/isolamento & purificação , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase Via Transcriptase Reversa , Análise de Sequência de DNA , Zika virus/genética , Infecção por Zika virus/transmissãoRESUMO
At the end of 2013, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in Saint Martin Island, Caribbean. The Asian lineage was identified. Seven months after this introduction, the seroprevalence was 16.9% in the population of Saint Martin and 39.0% of infections remained asymptomatic. This moderate attack rate and the apparent limited size of the outbreak in Saint Martin could be explained by control measures involved to lower the exposure of the inhabitants. Other drivers such as climatic factors and population genetic factors should be explored. The substantial rate of asymptomatic infections recorded points to a potential source of infection that can both spread in new geographic areas and maintain an inconspicuous endemic circulation in the Americas.
Assuntos
Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Vírus Chikungunya/genética , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Fatores de Tempo , Índias Ocidentais/epidemiologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
In spring 2008, 15 Salmonella Panama laboratory-confirmed cases were reported within 2 weeks, twice the average annual number of reported cases of this infrequent serotype in The Netherlands. To identify the source responsible for this national outbreak, we carried out an epidemiological, microbiological, and trace-back investigation. In total, 33 cases were reported, and a matched case-control study (23 cases/24 controls) identified consumption of fresh (unpasteurized) fruit juice purchased from a large retailer (X) as the only significant risk factor for illness (matched odds ratio: 7.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.5-37.2). Though the bacterium could not be isolated from fruit juice, the minimal pH value for growth of the causative strain of the outbreak (3.4) was compatible with survival in fruit juice from X. The outbreak strain showed acid resistance and adaptive properties that may explain how it could have caused infection through fresh orange juice. To our knowledge, this is the first documented outbreak related to fresh fruit juice consumption in western Europe since 1922. A growing number of consumers who are seeking healthy food practices are exposed to the infectious risks related to unpasteurized fresh fruit juice. Labeling regulations should be adapted to properly indicate to the consumers that unpasteurized fresh fruit juices remain vulnerable to microbial contamination. Frequent microbiological screening and strict compliance with food safety procedures should reduce the infectious hazards of fresh fruit juices.